Italy

Germany Just Blew Up Italy's Bank Bailout Plan

Germany opposes any attempt to shield private bank investors from losses if Italy pushes ahead with plans to recapitalize lenders. Merkel’s government says that European Union rules on handling struggling banks should apply in any rescue effort, including forcing losses on shareholders and some creditors before public money can be injected. The government in Berlin rejects the argument that the U.K. vote to leave the EU constitutes an “exceptional circumstance.”

Brexit: Here Are The Latest Known Unknowns

When will Article 50 be triggered? Will it ever be triggered? Will there ever actually be a Brexit? Who is the next Conservative leader? Will there be a snap general election? On any negotiations will Europe play hard ball or compromise? Elsewhere will Italy lose the senate reform referendum in October and could Italy have an EU referendum after a fresh election? And will the French elections next year be another spoke in the wheel for Europe?

Global Stock Surge Continues As "Investors Look To Central Banks For Support"

Why the ongoing rally? A squeeze, sure, and also month-end fund flows. But the fundamental driver remains one and the same, and we quote Bloomberg: "the relief rally endures as Asian and European stocks rally with crude oil amid speculation policy makers will use stimulus to blunt the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, including a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Investors are looking to policy makers for support."

Is A New Banking Crisis Imminent? Recent Rise In Delinquency Rates Is Shocking

In 2006 it was exactly twelve months after delinquency rates bottomed that the recession began. If the same period applies, we are due for a recession. In the first quarter of the Great Recession in 2008, delinquency rates were only 1.45%. We are already above that level. The fact that increasing loan delinquency coincides with mountains of debt maturing in 2016 and 2017 is a topic for next time.

The Accusations Begin: David Cameron Blames Brexit On Merkel And EU "Immigration Failure"

David Cameron told European leaders he lost the EU referendum because they failed to address public concerns over immigration, as tensions rose ahead of looming Brexit negotiations. The British PM said that fears of mass immigration were "a driving factor" behind the vote and free movement would have to be addressed in Brexit talks. He was mostly referring to Angela Merkel who blocked British demands before the referendum for an "emergency brake" on migrant numbers.

Why The ECB Thinks Brexit Is Not A "Lehman Moment"

"I think indeed the comparison does not apply because the reaction to Lehman as you may recall was that several markets froze... That was not the case this time." Actually... that's not exactly true is it!!

After Brexit, A Trump Path To Victory

The English wish to remain who they are, and they do not want their country to become, in Theodore Roosevelt’s phrase, “a polyglot boarding house” for the world. From patriots of all nations, congratulations are in order. It will all begin to unravel now, over there, and soon over here.

What Is The Source Of Today's Buying Panic: RBC Explains

"For what it’s worth, the buying in high risk periphery and banks is not “real money” nor is it on any real volume (which thus smells of short covering), while most of our real buying is a downshift in risk-profile from long onlys who have to be invested and are loading the boat in obvious sectors like utilities today." - RBC

Global Stocks Rebound, US Futures Jump On Expectation Of "Coordinated Intervention By Central Banks"

After a historic two-day selloff, which as shown yesterday slammed European banks by the most on record the wildly oversold conditions, coupled with hopes for yet another global, coordinated central bank intervention, coupled with modest hope that David Cameron's trip to Brussels today may resolve some of the Article 50 gridlock, have been sufficient to prompt a modest buying scramble among European stocks in early trading, with the pound and commodities all gaining for the first time since the shock Brexit vote.

The First Casualty Of Brexit: Italy Prepares €40 Billion Bank Bailout

Barely has the market had time to digest last week's Brexit vote by the UK, a vote which may never actually be implemented if the "sturm und drang" campaign unleashed by the EU and the ECB on UK capital markets succeeds in changing the mind of enough "Leavers" to the point that the entire referendum is called off and Boris Johnson never triggers the Article 50 clause, and already Europe's most financially troubled nation, Italy, is using Brexit as a pretext to unleash a €40 billion ($44 billion) bailout of its insolvent banks.

EU Officials To Unveil 'Ultimatum' Blueprint As Final Solution For European Super-State

It appears The Brits dodged more than a migration bullet in their decision to leave The EU. French and German officials are reportedly due to reveal a blueprint to effectively do away with individual member states in what is being described as an "ultimatum," with a shockingly predictable final solution to Europe's Brexit-driven existential crisis to morph the continent’s countries into one giant superstate.

"Brexit" - What Goldman Thinks Will Happen Next, And Who Will Hold The Next Referendum

Considering Goldman's abysmal forecasting track record continues to plumb new lows (just today it predicted a Spain victory of Italy, and an England victory over Iceland, both tragically wrong), the following should perhaps be best used as an indicator of what will not happen. Still, since there are a lot of remaining Brexit question, we hope that the following at least provides a useful framework for how to approach the :"known unknowns", if not so much the unknown unknown ones.