James Montier

James Montier

Animal Spirits Are A Late-Stage Event

“While the temptations are great, and the pressures strong, illusions in numbers are only that - ephemeral, and ultimately self-destructive.

Investing Wisdoms... Spot What's Missing

"Experience is an expensive commodity to acquire, which is why it is always cheaper to learn from the mistakes of others... not one of the investing greats in history ever had "buy and hold" as a rule."

It's Different This Time...

Throughout history, financial bubbles have only been recognized in hindsight when their existence becomes “apparently obvious” to everyone. Of course, by that point is was far too late to be of any use to investors and the subsequent destruction of invested capital. This time will not be different. Only the catalyst, magnitude, and duration will be.

The Stock Market Is A Monetary Policy Junkie - Quantifying The Fed's Unprecedented Impact On The S&P

The bulls will presumably argue that this Fed impact is now part of the accepted wisdom, and that P/Es should remain higher than history in order to reflect the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen Put. The bears will suggest that if ever there were a time for the scales to fall from investors’ eyes over the Wizard-of-Oz-like nature of the Fed, then this is it. We are inclined to the latter view. Betting on the Fed’s ability to generate continued market levitation seems like a dangerous game to us, but as Newton long ago opined, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”

GMO's Montier Shifts To 50% Cash, Sees 3 "Hellish" Scenarios For Markets

"This is definitely the most difficult time to be an asset allocator," warns GMO's James Montier, telling conference attendees in Munich that he hasn't been this risk-averse since 2008. Having warned six months ago that "stocks are hideously expensive...in a central bank sponsored bubble," Montier sees three different "hellish" scenarios and as CityWire reports, warns investors, "I think it's best to stand a bit and hold onto some dry powder," despite the groupthink idolatry being practiced around the world.

Perception Is The Putrescence Of Politics And The Plague Of The People

By accepting the story as told without regard to integrity of truth we have allowed ourselves to become feed for those controlling the story and thus the system. As the charts above clearly depict we have two distinct economic states. One is perceived and the other is real. The perceived state gets sole attention allowing the economic cannibalism to continue and draws us further out to the middle of the lake. And as the ice disappeared so quickly not yet 7 years ago it will again reveal itself only a perception created by policymakers for sycophants so willing to feast and profit on the rest of us and, perhaps more startling, on their own future well being.

How To Spot Groupthink Among Economists

  • A tendency to examine too few alternatives; A lack of critical assessment of each other’s ideas;
  • A high degree of selectivity in information gathering; A lack of contingency plans;
  • Poor decisions are often rationalised; The group has an illusion of invulnerability and shared morality;
  • True feelings and beliefs are suppressed; An illusion of unanimity is maintained;
  • Mind guards (essentially information sentinels) may be appointed to protect the group from negative information.

2014 Year In Review (Part 1): The Final Throes Of A Geopolitical Game Of Tetris

Every year, David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. "I have not seen a year in which so many risks - some truly existential - piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. It feels like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows..."

10 Legendary Investment Rules From Legendary Investors

As an investor, it is simply your job to step away from your "emotions" for a moment and look objectively at the market around you. Is it currently dominated by "greed" or "fear?"  Your long-term returns will depend greatly not only on how you answer that question, but to manage the inherent risk.  “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” - Benjamin Graham