Jan Hatzius

Goldman Responds To Yellen's Testimony: "Little New Ground"

"Chair Yellen broke little new ground in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. She remained upbeat about the economic outlook, but said that the FOMC would need to watch incoming labor market data to determine whether recent signs of slowing are indeed transitory."

And The Winner Of Euro 2016 According To Goldman Is...

Shortly before Brazil's crushing 7-1 defeat to Germany in 2014's World Cup, Goldman Sachs econometric model forecast the South American team as by far the strongest favorite to lift football's soccer's greatest trophy. So, with that in mind, Jan Hatzius and his hooligans unleash their predictions for the 2016 European Football Championship that just got under way. Using historical performance data for each team - most importantly the Elo rating system originally devised to rank chess players - they estimate a set of probabilities that a particular team will reach a particular round, up to and including the championship... concluding that France (the hosts) are the most likely to win. Bet accordingly.

Goldman Crushes Democrat's Dreams: Shows Obamacare Has Cost "A Few Hundred Thousand Jobs"

We suspect Lloyd Blankfein will be receiving a call from The White House (or Treasury) very soon as Goldman Sachs' economists did the unthinkable in the age of political correctness - while investigating the state of under-employment in America, the smartest people in the room found that ObamaCare has led to a rise in involuntary part-time employment, estimating that "a few hundred thousand workers" have been forced to cut hours and has "created disincentives for full-time employment."

Goldman Looks At The Jobs Report, Sees Three Rate Hikes In 2016

The FOMC may have cut its rate hike forecast from 4 to 2, following by an even more dovish speech by Janet Yellen, but Goldman is convinced the Fed is wrong. As a result, after looking at today's payrolls report, its chief economist Jan Hatzius said that "we ultimately think the committee will move faster than the two-hike pace implied by the latest “dot plot”, despite the dovish signals from the March meeting and Chair Yellen’s remarks this week" and that "we continue to expect the FOMC to raise rates three times in 2016." This means rate hikes during all the upcoming FOMC meetings that have a conference: June, September and December.

"Can Trump Win The General Election?" Goldman Answers All Your Election Questions

Inside the Beltway all politicians are the same. They do the bidding of vested interests, lobbyists, and whoever else has the money. No one knows that better than Goldman Sachs, a firm which has its fingers (or “tentacles” as it were) in every political pie that matters (well, except one perhaps). Here is Goldman's 2016 election preview.

Goldman Throws Up On Global Easing Party, Warns US Economy Close To Overheating

"One interpretation of the recent moves by the major central banks is that they represent a coordinated attempt to ease global financial conditions while avoiding upward pressure on the US dollar," Goldman writes. Yellen, the bank says, was more than happy to participate - this time. But as the US economy hits full employment, the Fed's calculus will change. Then come the hikes. Or so says the Squid.

The War On Savers And The 200 Rulers Of World Finance

There has been an economic coup d’état in America and most of the world. We are now ruled by about 200 unelected central bankers, monetary apparatchiks and their minions and megaphones on Wall Street and other financial centers. Unlike Senator Joseph McCarthy, we actually do have a list of their names. They need to be exposed, denounced, ridiculed, rebuked and removed.

Goldman Capitulates: Revises Fed Call, No Longer Expects A March Rate Hike

Another day, another Goldman prediction fiasco, and no, we are not talking about the stop out of the firm's Top Trade for 2016, namely the long USDJPY, short EURUSD (although that should happen any minute) - we are talking about that perpetual permabull, Jan Hatzius, just admitting the economy is in far worse shape than expected (if only by him), and as a result he just "revised" his Fed rate hike call, no longer expecting a March hike, instead now forecasting that the first rate hike will be in June and "and see a total of three rate increases this year."

Wall Street Economists React To The Fed's Statement

After the Fed's statement, one thing was clear: the career economists at the Marriner Eccles building are very confused, admitting to hiking rates for the first time in nine years "even as economic growth slowed late last year". But more confused are the Wall Street economists who follow the Fed and are expected to interpret what the Fed says, means and hints, especially when said Fed has no clue what is going on, like right now. So while their opinions are utterly worthless, for the record, here is what the economisseds see in today's 558 words of sheer Fed confusion.

Futures Fail To Surge Despite Continuing Onsalught Of Poor Economic Data

The best headline to summarize what happened in the early part of the overnight session was the following from Bloomberg: "Asian stocks extend global rally on stimulus bets." And following the abysmal data releases from the past three days confirming that the latest centrally-planned attempt to kickstart the global economy has failed, overnight we got even more bad data, first in the form of Australia's trade deficit, and then Germany's factory orders which bombed, and which as Goldman said "seems to reflect genuine weakness in China and emerging markets in general and this will weigh on the German manufacturing sector."

Peter Schiff: The Fed Has Created A "Bad Is Good" Economy

The popular belief that the U.S. economy has been steadily recovering has endured months of disappointing data without losing much of its appeal. But the downright dismal September jobs report that was released last Friday may prove to be the flashing red beacon that even the most skilled apologists can't explain away. But rather than questioning the Fed's credibility in missing another forecast, most economists are lauding it for supposedly seeing weakness that others missed, which allowed it to wisely do nothing in September. But this is simply a continuation of the Fed's long-standing playbook: Talk the economy up through optimistic statements while continually holding off an actual rate hike that the Fed is concerned could undermine an economy teetering on the brink of recession.

The Rate Hike Ship Has Sailed: Goldman Sees "Higher Probability Of Liftoff Not In 2016 But In 2017"

"... standard monetary policy rules might justify a continuation of the current zero-rate policy for much longer, well into 2016 or potentially even beyond. In this context, it is interesting that the reduced market-implied probability of liftoff in 2015 after Friday’s weak employment report mostly translated into a higher probability of liftoff not in 2016 but in 2017!"