The FOMC may have cut its rate hike forecast from 4 to 2, following by an even more dovish speech by Janet Yellen, but Goldman is convinced the Fed is wrong. As a result, after looking at today's payrolls report, its chief economist Jan Hatzius said that "we ultimately think the committee will move faster than the two-hike pace implied by the latest “dot plot”, despite the dovish signals from the March meeting and Chair Yellen’s remarks this week" and that "we continue to expect the FOMC to raise rates three times in 2016." This means rate hikes during all the upcoming FOMC meetings that have a conference: June, September and December.
Inside the Beltway all politicians are the same. They do the bidding of vested interests, lobbyists, and whoever else has the money. No one knows that better than Goldman Sachs, a firm which has its fingers (or “tentacles” as it were) in every political pie that matters (well, except one perhaps). Here is Goldman's 2016 election preview.
"One interpretation of the recent moves by the major central banks is that they represent a coordinated attempt to ease global financial conditions while avoiding upward pressure on the US dollar," Goldman writes. Yellen, the bank says, was more than happy to participate - this time. But as the US economy hits full employment, the Fed's calculus will change. Then come the hikes. Or so says the Squid.
Central bankers regularly lie to us to obscure the larger, ongoing globalization of finance. We're not supposed to notice what's going on behind the curtain. But we better start.
There has been an economic coup d’état in America and most of the world. We are now ruled by about 200 unelected central bankers, monetary apparatchiks and their minions and megaphones on Wall Street and other financial centers. Unlike Senator Joseph McCarthy, we actually do have a list of their names. They need to be exposed, denounced, ridiculed, rebuked and removed.
Another day, another Goldman prediction fiasco, and no, we are not talking about the stop out of the firm's Top Trade for 2016, namely the long USDJPY, short EURUSD (although that should happen any minute) - we are talking about that perpetual permabull, Jan Hatzius, just admitting the economy is in far worse shape than expected (if only by him), and as a result he just "revised" his Fed rate hike call, no longer expecting a March hike, instead now forecasting that the first rate hike will be in June and "and see a total of three rate increases this year."
After the Fed's statement, one thing was clear: the career economists at the Marriner Eccles building are very confused, admitting to hiking rates for the first time in nine years "even as economic growth slowed late last year". But more confused are the Wall Street economists who follow the Fed and are expected to interpret what the Fed says, means and hints, especially when said Fed has no clue what is going on, like right now. So while their opinions are utterly worthless, for the record, here is what the economisseds see in today's 558 words of sheer Fed confusion.
Here comes Goldman, not two months after it said that the Fed should think about easing, with what can only pass for Sunday evening humor saying that 7 years to the day after it landed on the zero bound on December 16, 2008, the Fed will hike because, "the economy might start to overheat by late 2016/early 2017 unless growth slows from the current pace".
Goldman Mocks "Constitutionally Dovish" Fed, Sees December Rate Hike Odds At 60% To Offset "Credibility Problem"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/18/2015 14:52 -0400
Q: Why do you still expect the FOMC to hike rates in December?
A: Because the FOMC leadership has said that a rate hike by the end of the year is likely if the economy and markets evolve broadly as expected. Our near-term forecast is similar to theirs, so our baseline is also that they hike.
The best headline to summarize what happened in the early part of the overnight session was the following from Bloomberg: "Asian stocks extend global rally on stimulus bets." And following the abysmal data releases from the past three days confirming that the latest centrally-planned attempt to kickstart the global economy has failed, overnight we got even more bad data, first in the form of Australia's trade deficit, and then Germany's factory orders which bombed, and which as Goldman said "seems to reflect genuine weakness in China and emerging markets in general and this will weigh on the German manufacturing sector."
The popular belief that the U.S. economy has been steadily recovering has endured months of disappointing data without losing much of its appeal. But the downright dismal September jobs report that was released last Friday may prove to be the flashing red beacon that even the most skilled apologists can't explain away. But rather than questioning the Fed's credibility in missing another forecast, most economists are lauding it for supposedly seeing weakness that others missed, which allowed it to wisely do nothing in September. But this is simply a continuation of the Fed's long-standing playbook: Talk the economy up through optimistic statements while continually holding off an actual rate hike that the Fed is concerned could undermine an economy teetering on the brink of recession.
"... standard monetary policy rules might justify a continuation of the current zero-rate policy for much longer, well into 2016 or potentially even beyond. In this context, it is interesting that the reduced market-implied probability of liftoff in 2015 after Friday’s weak employment report mostly translated into a higher probability of liftoff not in 2016 but in 2017!"
In addition to the Fed's credibility, one other privately-controlled organization that has seen its credibility completely crushed in recent months is the Goldman economic forecasting team (if not the team that "forecasts" Fed monetary policy, simply because Goldman controls the Fed and tells it what to do; as such what Goldman "thinks" the Fed will do is usually ironclad) whose Jan Hatzius "for what it's worth" forecast above trend growth for the US economy in 2014. So, "for what it's worth", here is Goldman jobs report post-mortem (in a parallel report Goldman just cut its Q3 GDP forecast from 2.0% to 1.9%), in which the bank admits that the report was a disaster, and that as a result "we now see action at the December meeting as a close call."
When risk sold off last week in the wake of the Fed’s so-called “clean relent,” it signalled at best a policy mistake and at worst the loss of any and all credibility. Tonight, Yellen gets a do-over.
Foucault Does FOMC: Deutsche Bank Explains The Fed's Decision By Mixing Quantum Theory With Post-ModernismSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/21/2015 09:05 -0400
"The market is now observing itself from another angle as an observer of the observer of the observers."