Jan Hatzius

These Are The Four Political Risks Keeping Goldman Up At Night

With political uncertainty near record highs (but equity market uncertainty near record lows), Goldman's Jan Hatzius analyzes the four biggest political risks receiving the most attention from market participants (and stand to create the most chaos if the priced for perfection market is disappointed).

Weekend Reading: Just Buy Everything

“It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.– Henry Ford

Goldman Raises March Rate Hike Odds To 95% After Yellen Speech

"Fed Chair Yellen said today that a rate increase at the March FOMC meeting “would likely be appropriate”, as long as incoming data continue to confirm officials’ outlook. We see this as a strong signal for action at the upcoming meeting, and have raised our subjective odds of a hike to 95%."

Goldman: "The Improvement In Global Growth Has Run Its Course"

"The more negative aspects of the Trump agenda—trade and immigration—are coming into clearer view. Taken together, our analysis suggests that the improvement in global growth has probably run its course, with sideways moves around the recent 3½% trend the most likely outcome."

Three Things Are About To Derail Trump's Fiscal Plan, Goldman Warns

With every passing week Goldman has been turning increasingly more pessimistic on Trump's proposed fiscal and budget plans, and it all culminated in a report released over the weekend, in which Goldman's Alec Phillips explains that over the next few months fiscal reofrm watchers will be disappointed as "three factors will make this year’s budget plans even more difficult to put together."

Wall Street Responds To Today's Jobs Report

Following today's jobs report, the market's reaction to the unexpectedly strong January payrolls visualized in the charts below, is straightforward: the disappointing wage growth is an indication that the Fed may not hike rates for quite a bit longer than expected, and will likely will be forced to reduce its rate hike expectations from 3 to 2 (in line with the market) or fewer if wage growth continue to stagnate.

Goldman's 10 Most Important Questions For 2017

Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about growth in 2017, for three reasons: first, despite the lack of spare capacity, US recession risk remains below the historical average; second, financial conditions should remain a growth tailwind - at least in the first half of 2017; and third, we expect a fiscal easing accumulating to 1% of GDP by 2018. However, uncertainty remains and here is what Jan Hatzius and his team believe are the ten most important questions for 2017.