Jan Hatzius

Jail, Drugs And Video Games: Why Millennial Men Are Disappearing From The Labor Force

Prime-working age men - particularly Millennials - have failed to return to the labor force while women have reentered. While this partially reflects a growing skill mismatch, a far more troubling explanation includes greater drug abuse, rising incarceration rates and more men "dedicating" themselves to playing video games. BofA explains...

Goldman Raises December Rate Hike Odds To 80%

"... The employment report appears strong on net after taking into account hurricane effects, given the drop in the unemployment rate to a new cycle low and the upward revisions to average hourly earnings. We increased our Fed probabilities, with subjective odds of a December hike at 80% (vs. 75% previously)."

Goldman Slashes Q3 GDP By 30% Due To Hurricane Disaster

"Given potentially sizeable growth effects from Harvey—and with Irma risks now moving to center stage—we are lowering our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.8pp to +2.0%. However, we expect this weakness to reverse over the subsequent three quarters, more than recouping the lost output"

Harvey Destruction Prompts Goldman To Cut Government Shutdown Odds

"Recent events have lowered the odds of a government shutdown or a delayed debt ceiling hike but have also increased the number of possible scenarios, complicating the legislative outlook over the next couple of months. At this point, we peg the probability of a shutdown in early October at 35%, down from our prior view of 50% over the last couple of weeks.""

"The Lost Generation": Goldman Unemployment Charts Explain Just How Spoiled Millennials Are

This morning, Goldman's Econ team set out to identify why wage growth has been elusive despite the fact that unemployment rates and other labor utilization measures signal an economy at full employment.  What they found potentially highlights the key social and behavioral gaps between generations and helps explain why millennials are having a much harder time finding jobs than previous generations.

Goldman Revises Its Fed Rate Hike Odds After Latest Disappointing Data

"We adjusted down our Fed odds accordingly. We now believe there is a 5% probability that the next rate hike will come in September, a 5% probability that it will come in November, and a 50% probability that it will come in December (a 60% cumulative probability of at least three hikes this year)."

Goldman: The Fed Will Hike But Here Are "The Two Most Interesting Questions"

While conceding that a hike is guaranteed, Goldman notes that two issues should make this week's FOMC meeting particularly interesting. First, will Fed officials alter their policy views in response to the increasingly different signals that both sides of the mandate are sending about the urgency of further tightening? Second, will the press conference provide some clarity on what the next tightening step following the June hike will be?