Janet Yellen

The Art And Pseudoscience Of Monetary Policy

Central planning via Fed monetary policy circa 2017 is an exercise in nonsense, plain and simple. But that’s not all, in addition to the fatal conceit of it all, there’s another fatal flaw.

The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles: "This Is The Very Definition Of Unsustainable"

"The Fed is desperately seeking to keep the status quo in place, praying that somehow things turn out OK, and clearly scared to death behind the scenes. But, just like the officials at Oroville, when the cameras are on her, Yellen smiles and tells us that all is well... But when these bubbles burst, and they must, it will be a massively destructive event. There will literally be nowhere to hide from the repercussions."

The Coming Bear Market

The bears are dead. Long live the bears. And that, in a nutshell, describes every bubble and emerging bear market there ever was...

Frontrunning: February 16

  • Futures dip as Wall Street navigates unchartered territory (Reuters)
  • Trump's Russia crisis deepens (Reuters)
  • Government Landlord Pays Millions Each Year to Trump Company (WSJ)
  • Protests call for U.S. immigrants to stay home from work, school (Reuters)
  • Trump Hates Trade Deficits, But Which Ones Really Matter? (BBG)
  • French Election Puts ‘Frexit’ on the Agenda (WSJ)

Here Is The "Catalyst" For The Market's Inexplicable Surge: A $17 Billion Trade Gone Wrong

"I’m worried that this stock ‘melt-up’ move is extraordinarily mechanical right now - almost entirely the aforementioned forced-covering, not high conviction induced-buying - and may be sending a 'false signal' which is potentially dragging-in new buying on the breakout to new highs.  This could lead to a scenario where a market can 'collapse under their own weight'."

Fed's Harker Blames 'Prime-Aged' American Male Joblessness On Drug Abuse

For 60 years the labor force participation rate of 25-54 year old men in America has declined. There are many reasons for this existential decline, but Philly Federal Reserve President Pat Harker explained today during a Q&A session that he is concerned that more 25-54 year old men are out of the workforce and blamed "drug abuse" for the problem. Of course, this is not the first time Fed officials have claimed 'drug abuse' as an excuse for the failure of their policies. 

An Economic Showdown Is Looming

The idea that the entrenched political establishment is willing to take these risks to further their political agenda is frightening.

Frontrunning: February 15

  • World stocks at 21-month highs on Yellen, U.S. outlook (Reuters); Dollar notches longest run of gains in five years before CPI data (Reuters)
  • Nervous About the ACA, GOP Divisions Emerge Over Repeal Effort (BBG)
  • Flynn Probed by FBI Over Calls With Russian Official (WSJ)
  • Russia Questions Mount for Trump White House Reeling From Flynn Fallout (BBG)
  • Trump knew for weeks aide was misleading over Russia (Reuters)

Global Stocks Hit 21 Month Highs, Futures Point To New Record Ahead Of Inflation Data

The global "risk on" melt-up continues. After a modestly hawkish Yellen warned that every meeting is live, and refused to take March off the table, sending the dollar and yield higher and the S&P to fresh record highs, world stocks rose hitting a 21-month high on Wednesday with the dollar rising for the 11th straight day, the longest positive streak since July 2015.

A New Jacksonian Era? Part 2

Trump will most certainly accomplish the relatively easy stuff – cutting taxes, building a wall, increasing funding for the military, spending more on infrastructure, and repealing Obamacare. If he wanted to leave a legacy on par with Andrew Jackson’s he will have to the hard stuff too. Will Trump have the courage to do any of the hard stuff? If not, the decline of the American Empire is inevitable.