Janet Yellen

With Janet Yellen choking back the vomit as she shifted The Fed's stance to a "hawkish hold," markets remain just as confused (and disconnected) as they were after The FOMC's "dovish hold." The problem, as Deutsche explains, is The Fed's reliance on 'conventional' inflation dynamics (and its mean-reversion - higher in this case) as opposed to actual market expectations (which are collapsing), leaving them open to a major Type II policy error -  the risk of rejecting something that is, in actuality, true. The Fed's credibility is teetering on the brink as inflation 'reflexivity' - that is, Fed expectations strengthen the dollar, depress risk in general and commodities in particular, with lower commodities driving headline inflation lower - raises the prospect that the Fed fails to raise rates at all in 2016.

There was a very troubling 100 second interval at the end of Yellen's 50 minute, 5,000+ word speech in Amhert on Thursday, in which the 69-year old Yellen suddenly seemed unable to read the words on the page, was rereading the same phrase over and over, paused for long stretches at a time, and then had a violent reaction that forced her to end her speech prematurely. Watch it again below. But more disturbing was the Fed's reaction. As the WSJ reports, a Federal Reserve spokeswoman declined Friday to say if Chairwoman Janet Yellen resumed a normal work schedule or sought follow-up medical attention a day after she appeared ill near the end of a long speech in Amherst, Mass. Ms. Yellen returned to Washington on Friday.

The current surge in dis-inflationary pressures is not just due to the recent fall in oil prices, but rather a global epidemic of slowing economic growth. While Janet Yellen addressed this "disinflationary" wave during her post-meeting press conference, the Fed still maintains the illusion of confidence that economic growth will return shortly. Unfortunately, this has been the Fed's "Unicorn" since 2011 as annual hopes of economic recovery have failed to materialize. However, it is these ongoing views of optimism that have collided with economic realities.

Earlier today yet another "very serious policy maker" confirmed that cash as we know it, may be on the endangered species list - again, a necessary precondition to make global NIRP effective - when overnight former Bank of England central banker, Charles Goodhart, told a London audience that bills such as the Swiss National Bank’s 1,000-franc note and the European Central Bank’s 500-euro note should be abolished, adding this "move that might also prove beneficial by trimming interest rates."

Fed credibility questioned and Yellen sick - Palladium surges 8% - Russia and central banks buy gold - Smart money rebalancing and selling overvalued assets to buy depressed assets especially silver

Yellen just reset the market's expectations, and in fact set the bar for disappointment even higher. As FTN rates strategist Jim Vogel very correctly notes, "financial market risk is calmer this morning, but Yellen actually elevated the stakes with her detailed speech yesterday afternoon."  What does that mean? He explains: "Yellen could be spot on this year but until the hike actually occurs, risk asset volatility veers once again to the upside with respect to US monetary policy."

• Global Markets Rebound on Yellen Speech (WSJ)
• Obama and Putin to meet; Syria and Ukraine vie for attention (Reuters)
• Obama to host China's President Xi amid simmering tensions (Reuters)
• Don't Fall for It, Xi! Chinese Take to Web to Scorn U.S.—and China, Too (BBG)
• Yellen Confirms Fed Still on Track to Raise Rates This Year (BBG)... but is still China dependent?
• Abe's New Economic Plan Confounds Analysts (BBG)
• It's All `Perverted' Now as U.S. Swap Spreads Tumble Below Zero (BBG)

"Yellen faltered at end of her speech. Last page was agonizing. I don't think she felt well but she seemed better when she left the stage."

The evening started on a high note when Janet Yellen's survival giving a speech warranted a 100 point rip in Dow futures (and USD strength). Then Japan stepped up with its first deflationary CPI print since April 2013 (which of course was met with stock-buying because moar QQE is overdue but that soon faded). EM FX is tumbling further (with Malaysia leading the charge). Chinese credit risk jumps tro a new 2 year high (as SHIBOR remains entirely manipulated flat) as China halts its 4-day devaluation with a tiny nudge stronger in the Yuan fix.

When risk sold off last week in the wake of the Fed’s so-called “clean relent,” it signalled at best a policy mistake and at worst the loss of any and all credibility. Tonight, Yellen gets a do-over.

When we summarized yesterday's very strong 5 Year auction, we previewed today's 7 year issuance as follows: "assuming no material changes in the demeanor of the market over the next 24 hours, expect tomorrow's 7Y auction to also proceed without a hitch. In fact, the more the general sense of risk-off, the stronger tomorrow's auction will likely be." That's precisely what happened.

• Stocks slip for fifth straight day, euro holds steady (Reuters)
• VW recall letters in April warned of an emissions glitch (Reuters)
• VW Cheating Scandal Threatens to Ensnare BMW as Probe Widens (BBG)
• Pope Francis set to address fractious U.S. Congress (Reuters)
• Norway Cuts Rates to Record Low to Save Economy From Oil Slump (BBG)
• Taiwan Cuts Rate for First Time Since 2009 as Exports Falter (BBG)
• Janet Yellen to speak at UMass on Thursday (Daily Collegian)
• A Big Bet That China’s Currency Will Devalue Further (NYT)
• Debt Relief for Students Snarls Market for Their Loans (WSJ)

As powerful as the Fed is, it isn’t stronger than the markets. And the longer the Fed tries to sustain abnormalities like QE and 0% interest rates, the more likely it is that the whole business will end with the markets crushing the Fed. At the next sign of a market swoon or of a weakening economy, or with the next episode of deflationary jitters, the Fed will do whatever it takes, no matter what the eventual damage to the dollar’s value. Whatever the details, one thing should be clear. This politburo of unaccountable central planners is the greatest risk to your financial wellbeing today.

Not surprisingly, the failure of the Federal Reserve to hike overnight lending rates sent a clear message to the markets that the economy was simply not strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy. While Chairwoman Janet Yellen did her best to pass off the recent disinflationary trends as transient due to the decline in oil prices, the discussion of the potential for negative rates sent a very different message. The failure at overhead resistance, combined with a continued weak technical backdrop of momentum and relative strength, suggests that a retest of lows in the weeks ahead is a likely probability.

"We are proceeding with caution in several areas of the portfolio: many of our absolute return managers are accumulating increasing amounts of cash; we are being careful about not over-committing into illiquid investments in potentially frothy markets, while still ensuring we will be involved if market dislocations arise. ...  An interesting question emerges: could rising interest rates in 2016 have an analogous impact to falling house prices in 2007, where a range of largely unanticipated second-order effects was triggered?"