Janet Yellen

What if Janet Yellen is wrong?

Yellen’s acting routine is worthy of an Academy Award. In her role, she plays a caring, sweet, grandmotherly type figure all concerned about the poor and middle-class, when reality points to a career as a staunch, frontline protector of the bankster oligarchy.

• Bubble Paranoia Setting in as S&P 500 Surge Stirs Angst (BBG)
• But how will math PhDs determine "fair value" - Wall Street Techs Take Secrets to Next Job at Their Peril (BBG)
• U.S., EU Escalate Russia Sanctions as Putin Holds Firm (Bloomberg)
• Australia Becomes First Developed Nation to Repeal Carbon Tax (WSJ)
• Gaza humanitarian truce goes into force, hours after tunnel clash (Reuters)
• Barclays, Deutsche Bank Said to Face U.S. Senate Hearing (BBG)
• ECB Asset Buying Far Off and May Not Come, Hansson Says (BBG)
• Time Warner win would make Murdoch U.S. media king (Reuters)
• Costly Vertex Drug Is Denied, and Medicaid Patients Sue (WSJ)
• China Rallying for All Wrong Reasons to Top-Rated Analyst (BBG)
• GM recalls some cars with problematic switches; judges others safe (Reuters)

Janet Yellen is always one step behind.  If people start to ask you "Are you fat?", then you ARE fat!

Since Janet Yellen started speaking yesterday, the USD has jumped most in 10 weeks to 1-month highs, Treasury yields have risen 5bps at the short-end but are unchanged at the long-end, Gold and silver are down 1%, oil up 1%, and copper -1.4%. In stock land, The Dow and Trannies are leading, S&P is unch, and Russell 2000 is not happy (-1.3%). VIX tested down to a 10-handle once again (but closed at 11.1). Credit markets remained far less excited than stocks today. Biotechs are down over 4.5% since Yellen started speaking and Social Media -1.2%. The Russell 2000 closes -0.8% for 2014.

Presenting: the Price to Equity ratio. Because stocks are cheap and stuff.

35,000 global M&A deals will likely be made this year, promising “efficiencies” and “synergies,” hence job cuts. The Great M&A Frenzy of 2007/8 ended in the Great Jobs Crisis!

The sell off was greeted by Chinese buyers as Chinese premiums edged up to just over $1 an ounce on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE).

Gold price drops this year have led to a marked increase in demand for gold as seen in very large increases in ETF holdings (See chart - Orange is Gold, Purple is absolute change in gold ETF holdings). The smart money in Asia, the West and globally continues to use price dips as an opportunity to allocate to gold.

Having sent shockwaves through the "Don't fight the Fed" apologists yesterday by stating that small caps (etc.) have stretched valuations, we suspect today's hearing (assuming the politicians have now read her statement and report) will focus on what the market's gurus is rapidly trying to paper over. Expect more 'uber-dovish if we need to', expect more 'vigilant' of bubbles (but there are none now)... expect more 'rates will rise - so sell your bonds (and patriotically help with the collateral shortage). Presenting Janet Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins part two... facing the Republican-led Financial Services Committee.

• BRICS set up bank to counter Western hold on global finances (Reuters)
• Fed's Yellen Hedges Her View on Rates (Hilsenrath)
• China GDP Grows 7.5% in Second Quarter (WSJ)
• Get More Acquainted With Your Knees as Boeing Reworks 737 (BBG)
• Israel Warns Gazans of New Attack After Hamas Rejects Truce (WSJ)
• Israel poised for Gaza incursions after truce collapses (Reuters)
• China Housing Sales Fall in First Half of 2014 (WSJ)
• IBM to offer iPads and iPhones for business users (Reuters)
• Fed's George says strengthening economy warrants quick rate rise (Reuters)

While Banco Espirito Santo continues to exist on fumes and life support (that last ditch equity injection by Baupost a week ago may not have been Seth Klarman's wisest investment), a key link in the Espirito Santo Holding Company structure is preparing to default. According to Reuters:

ESPÍRITO SANTO GROUPS HOLDING COMPANY RIOFORTE PREPARING TO FILE FOR CREDITOR PROTECTION IN LUXEMBOURG - SOURCES

For those confused, "creditor protection" =  bankruptcy.

"... signs of risk-taking have increased in some asset classes. Equity valuations of smaller firms as well as social media and biotechnology firms appear to be stretched, with ratios of prices to forward earnings remaining high relative to historical norms. Beyond equities, risk spreads for corporate bonds have narrowed and yields have reached all-time lows. Issuance of speculative-grade corporate bonds and leveraged loans has been very robust, and underwriting standards have loosened. For example, average debt-to-earnings multiples have risen, and the share rated B or below has moved up further for leveraged loans." - Janet Yellen

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will provide Congress with an update on the state of the economy, how rosy the future is, why she needs to keep rates lower for longer, and that there are no bubbles (oh apart from in bonds which everyone should sell because we need the collateral). These are her first comments since the FOMC press conference in mid-June and stocks have soared since then (as bond yields have tumbled) and she will have to tread a fine line between exuberant over headline job improvements and the need to keep over-inflated bubbles pumped full of cheap/free money for longer...

It has been a mixed overnight session, following data out of China first showing that any hopes of ongoing PBOC tapering are dead and buried, following the June report showing money and loan creation (1.08 trillion Yuan up from 871 billion in May and above the 980 billion expected) in China soared, slamming expectations and indicating that Beijing is once again set on masking slowing growth with a surge in money creation. Should the Chinese not so secret any more money laundering channel be plugged this means local inflation may be set to surge in the coming months. More worrying was the release of a big drop in the German ZEW Survey expectations print at 27.1, down from 29.8 and below the expected 28.2. The low print has prompted several banks to warn that Europe's growth spurt has finally ended and there may be substantial downside surprises ahead, and certainly even more cuts to the IMF "forecast" for European growth. Finally, the Portuguese situation may be out of sight, but it is certainly not out of mind as the stock of BES continues to tumble and now the contagion has finally moved over to Espirito Santo Financial Group whose shares dropped to the lowest since 1993. Keep a close eye on this "not so lonely" cockroach.