Janet Yellen

"If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. That's the fiscal gap," he says. "That's our true indebtedness."

• Triumph Confirms 'Era of Merkelism' (Spiegel)
• Merkel must reach out to leftist rivals after poll triumph (Reuters)
• Norwegian Air says both its Dreamliners hit by technical issues (Reuters)
• Chinese court gives Bo Xilai life sentence (CBS)
• Social Dems Deflect Talk of Merkel Alliance (Spiegel)
• Blasts shake Nairobi mall, smoke pours from building (Reuters)
• Open-Government Laws Fuel Hedge-Fund Profits (WSJ)
• Forbes Calls Goldman CEO Holier Than Mother Teresa (Matt Taibbi)
• BlackBerry move away from consumers unlikely to stem decline (Reuters)
• And another Greek strike: Greek teachers, civil servants to strike against layoffs (Reuters)

The German elections came and went, with Merkel initially said to have an absolute majority, but in the end being forced to design a Grand Coalition. Still, the punditry has been tripping over each other desperate to make that result (or any other result) positive for Europe , which despite now paving the way for policy continuity, together with the latest round of less than impressive Eurozone PMIs (following the strongest China HSBC PMI in 6 months) failed to inspire appetite for risk in Europe this morning where stocks have traded mixed. What is amusing is that everyone expected, the second Merkel gets reelected things in Europe would start going pump in the night - sure enough, the Italian FTSE-MIB is underperforming in early trade amid reports that Italy's economy minister Saccomanni threatened to step down if the country does not stick to its pledges it made to the European Commission. However to a certain degree, the negative sentiment towards Italy was offset by €4.8bln of coupon payments and €24.1bln of redemptions from Italy which is eligible for reinvestment this week. With a second Greek 2-day strike in one week scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, look for Europe's catalytic event to unclog, now that the German political picture is set, culminating with the 3rd (and 4th) Greek bailouts and probably more: after all Europe now needs a lower EURUSD (recall Adidas' warning), and that usually means a localized crisis.

There was a time, long ago, when some still believed the myth that the Federal Reserve, and the selection of its Chairman, were supposed to be apolitical and impartial. Luckily, that was a long time ago, because otherwise some may question not only the logic, but the motives, behind what the media reports is an aggressive push by White House officials to "muster support among Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee to back Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen," according to Reuters which cited three sources said on Friday, laying the groundwork for her expected nomination to the Fed's top job. If the White House is suddenly intent on picking Mrs. Yellen (or is that Mister?), one wonders just how diluted her "runner up" credibility at the Fed would be, since it has been made quite clear she was continuously Obama's B (or lower) grade choice to head the Fed, with Summers at the very top. And of course, a just as important question is how even more diluted is Obama's credibility and political brand if a few ultra-liberal Senators can impose their choice for next Fed head over that of both Larry Summers, of the "Committee to save the world" and the president himself.

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• How a German tech giant trims its U.S. tax bill (Reuters)
• Despite Merkel's Popularity, Angst Creeps In (WSJ)
• Hank Paulson warns of regulatory conflict (FT)
• Rajan Surprises With India Rate Rise to Quell Inflation (BBG)
• Apple Begins Selling New iPhones (WSJ)
• Pope Says Church Should Stop Obsessing Over Gays, Abortion (BBG)

Are you ready for Janet Yellen?  Wall Street wants her, the mainstream media wants her and it appears that her confirmation would be a slam dunk.  She would be the first woman ever to chair the Federal Reserve, and her philosophy is that a little bit of inflation is actually good for an economy.  She was reportedly the architect for many of the unprecedented monetary decisions that Ben Bernanke made during his tenure, and that has many on Wall Street and in the media very excited.  Noting that we "already know that Yellen is on board with Bernanke's easy money policies", CNN recently even went so far as to publish a rabidly pro-Yellen article with this stunning headline: "Dear Mr. President: Name Yellen now!"  But after watching what a disaster Bernanke has been, do we really want more of the same?  It doesn't really matter whether she is a woman, a man, a giant lizard or a robot, the question is whether or not she is going to continue to take us down the path to ruin that Bernanke has taken us.

With rumors this evening of the White House calling around for support for Yellen, Marc Faber's comments today during a Bloomberg TV interview are even more prescient.  Fearing that Janet Yellen "would make Bernanke look like a hawk," Faber explains that he is not entirely surprised by today's no-taper news since he believes we are now in QE-unlimited and the people at the Fed "never worked a single-day in the business of ordinary people," adding that "they don't understand that if you print money, it benefits basically a handful of people." Following today's action, Faber is waiting to seeing if there is any follow-through but notes that "Feds have already lost control of the bond market. The question is when will it lose control of the stock market." The Fed, he warns, has boxed themselves in and "the endgame is a total collapse, but from a higher diving board."

• Expectations for Fed to begin to taper asset purchases by USD 10-15bln
• Ranges for pace of Treasury purchases: high USD 45bln, low USD 25bln
• Ranges for pace of MBS purchases: high USD 45bln, low USD 30bln
• Some see FOMC lowering unemployment threshold from current 6.5%
• Summary of Economic Projections and Press Conference from Fed Chairman Bernanke follow the announcement

With Syria now quickly fading from the headlines and Wall Street believing that Yellen is a "shoe in" for the Fed, what headwinds still remain for the markets ahead...

• Less Tapering Becomes Tightening Credit No Matter What Fed Says (BBG)
• Yellen Is Now Top Fed Hopeful (WSJ)
• Syria - A chemical crime, a complex reaction (Reuters)
• More ECB collateral: Wrecked cruise ship Costa Concordia raised off rocks in Italy (Reuters)
• Aging Boomers Befuddle Marketers Eying $15 Trillion Prize (BBG)
• Abe Turns Pitchman, Says Japan Is Now A Buy (WSJ)
• Ex-JPMorgan Employees Indicted Over $6.2 Billion Loss (BBG)
• Barack Obama blinked first in battle for Lawrence Summers (FT)
• Berlusconi to support Italian government in video message: sources (Reuters)
• How China Lost Its Mojo: One Town's Story (WSJ)

Overnight trading started with Asian markets continuing where yesterday's S&P 500 fizzle ended, wishing Summers could withdraw from Fed running again, as both the Nikkei and SHCOMP were well lower by the close. Perhaps all the easy multiple-expanding, headline-driven money is made, or perhaps economic fundamentals will finally start having to justify a 17x multiple on the S&P (a good is good regime for those who may be too young, or old, to remember), but overnight US futures were dull, and no doubt anticipating today's start of the "Most important FOMC meeting ever", which concludes tomorrow with an announcement by the Fed of what and how much (if any) tapering it will commence with an eye toward halting QE next summer, although more realistically what will happen is an Untaper being announced before then. While the start of the FOMC meeting is the main event, today we get CPI, TIC flows and the NAHB housing market index. Today's POMO is another modest $1.25-$1.75 billion in the long-end sector.

When we first posted this article a month ago, few paid attention as the entire world was gripped in Summer-mania. Now that Summers is out of the picture, and the monetary policy acumen of the former San Fran Fed president are under the spotlight, it is probably an opportune time to recall Janet Yellen's ability to foresee the future heading into the great financial crisis whose five year anniversary took place this weekend. Or rather lack thereof, because as the following excerpt from a 2010 FCIC hearing, noticed first by the NYT, demonstrates, if this is the best Fed head replacement we can do then we may as well fast forward to the Great Financial Crisis ver 2.0:  “For my own part,” Ms. Yellen said, “I did not see and did not appreciate what the risks were with securitization, the credit ratings agencies, the shadow banking system, the S.I.V.’s — I didn’t see any of that coming until it happened.”

Gold and silver futures surged 2.1% and 3.6% respectively and the dollar fell on the open in Asia prior to determined selling which again capped precious metal prices. Analysts and media attributed the price gains on the withdrawal of Larry Summers from the race to be the new Fed Chairman, leaving Janet Yellen as the new frontrunner.

This weekend has launched a new level of the bull-ghey, as we have our second example this month of the market rallying not on something that happened, but on something that didn't. Thus, I humbly offer more good reasons that the bulls could conjure up to propel us to yet new record highs, because God knows, if there's one industrial powerhouse that we need to safely usher into a successful IPO, it's Twitter. So here we go:

When the tracking of potential Ben replacement candidates for Fed Chairman by Irish bookmaker Paddy Power, and InTrade prop bet replacement, started it had Janet Yellen as a solid favorite. Shortly thereafter, as news leaked that Obama's favorite was Larry Summers, and as the president made it quite clear Yellen's candidacy was certainly not on the front Burner with the "Mr. Yellen" Freudian slip, Summer's odds soared and hit a contract high of 85% last week. Over the weekend, anyone who had put money on Summers, was Harvarded and lost all capital at risk, and now, it is Yellen who is once again firmly in the lead with her odds soaring right back to just why of 90%, and well-ahead of second placed Don Kohn at 17%. Ironically, while the market never actually corrected for the "market negative" that Larry Summers' candidacy is now spun to be, it is surely uncorrecting now that he is out.