Janet Yellen

September is likely to be dominated by a number of key event risks, in addition to ongoing uncertainty around the US growth outlook, the Fed’s reaction function and heightened EM volatility. We highlight the major events and likely market implications.

Gold looks to have found a base. Citi's FX Technicals retain a view that we can see a “low to high” percentage move in this gold bull market similar to what we saw in the bull market of 1970-1980. They add that if we extract the final leg of that move in December 1979-Jan 1980 which was totally driven by the USSR invasion of Afghanistan - almost doubling the price of Gold over 5 weeks - then we end up with a target of around $3,500 over the next 3 years or so. The charts below are compelling in that respect, but before we look at them we will indulge in some pontification...

• UN Insecptors to leave Syria early, by Saturday morning (Reuters)
• Yellen Plays Down Chances of Getting Fed Job (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Bribe Probe Said to Expand in Asia as Spreadsheet Is Found (BBG)
• No Section 8 for you: Wall Street’s Rental Bet Brings Quandary Housing Poor (BBG)
• Euro zone, IMF to press Greece for foreign agency to sell assets (Reuters)
• Brothels in Nevada Suffer as Web Disrupts Oldest Trade (BBG)
• U.S., U.K. Face Delays in Push to Strike Syria (WSJ); U.S., U.K. Pressure for Action on Syria Hits UN Hurdle (BBG)
• Renault Operating Chief Carlos Tavares Steps Down (WSJ)
• Vodafone in talks with Verizon to sell out of U.S. venture (Reuters)
• Dollar Seen Casting Off Euro Shackles as Fed Tapers (BBG)

There is a recurring nightmare that is playing out once again in many of the most leveraged asset-classes in the world's so-called 'markets'. The theme is that of an improving US economy which is pointing a normalization of US monetary policy. Good news, right? It would seem not; as Chris Wood's Greed and Fear notes, that the practical reality is that the emerging world, including Asia, will remain vulnerable to further selling so long as markets are anticipating normalisation of American monetary policy and a related strengthening in the US dollar. However, there is a conundrum, if the world was so sure of the relative strength of the American economy, surely the yen should be selling off more against the dollar. For CLSA the real test is yet to come when the new fiscal year in America begins on 1 October and the revival of US economic growth that is so hoped-for, does not materialize... and given the correlation in the chart below, it is clear that there is only thing that matters - the US 10Y rate.

• Opposition figure: major decisions on Syria expected within hours (Al Arabiya)
• Syria challenges U.S. to "produce the evidence" that Assad regime launched chemical attack (CBS)
• British PM says world must act on Syria, weighs response (Reuters)
• U.S. Treasury to Hit Debt Limit in Mid-October (WSJ)
• U.S. could look beyond U.N. Security Council in any Syria strike (Reuters)
• Nasdaq, NYSE at odds on outage cause as SEC seeks facts (Reuters)
• Ackman’s J.C. Penney Sale Ends Failed Saga to Agitate for Change (BBG)
• Zandi, LaVorgna, Blinder, Rattner all is one con puff piece (BBG)
• Best Buy Founder Schulze Plans Stock Sale to Diversify Assets (BBG) - "diversify assets" = dump overpriced junk
• Zero Worship: Credit-Card Firms Compete With No-Interest Transfers (WSJ)
• Len Blavatnik wins $50m in JPMorgan lawsuit (FT)
• Danone Finds Yogurt’s All Greek as Oikos Chases Chobani (BBG)

There is still no official public schedule for the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, anticipated to begin on Thursday. However, as we noted previously, the schedule will not include a keynote address from a high-ranking Federal Reserve official. Furthermore, as Goldman notes, in contrast to tradition, Chairman Bernanke will not be in attendance (Yellen will but Summer won't). However, Jackson Hole has historically been an event where the latest thinking on monetary policy has been debated by academics and central bankers, and this year will be no different. Perhaps, Goldman points out, most interestingly, some of the research to be presented finds that MBS purchases had a disproportionate effect on depressing MBS yields, while Treasury purchases did not seem to have a similar benefit - perhaps hinting at the form the 'taper' will take.

It's all about rates this largely newsless morning, which have continued their march wider all night, and moments ago rose to 2.873% - a fresh 2 year wide and meaning that neither Gross, nor the bond market, is nowhere near tweeted out. As DB confirms, US treasuries are front and center of mind at the moment.... the 10yr UST yield is up another 4bp at a fresh two year high of 2.87% in Tokyo trading, adding to last week’s 20bp selloff. As it currently stands, 10yr yields are up by more than 120bp from the YTD lows in early May and more than 80bp higher since Bernanke’s now infamous JEC testimony. We should also note that the recent US rates selloff has been accompanied by a rapid steepening in the rate curve. Indeed, the 2s/10s curve is at a 2 year high of 250bp and the 2s/30s and 2s/5s are also at close to their highest level in two years.

Guess what comes next in the numbered sequence: 30.0%, 60.0%, 66.666%? If you said 71.4%, or 2/5, which just happens to be Larry Summers' latest Fed Chairmanship odds according to Paddy Power, you are correct. Janet Yellen, who was once a 1/3 favorite has now plunged to just 7/4 or about 30% odds. And while Bill Gross' tweet certainly moved the market, perhaps a far greater concern to longs everywhere (of both bonds and stocks) is the realization that with every passing day Larry Summers gets closer to becoming the next Fed chairman.

Recently, Fox News interviewed a self-described beach bum named Jason Greenslate who was very open about the fact that he has no problem sponging off of all the rest of us.  When he was asked if he ever had any interest in actually getting a job, his response was "not whatsoever".  Instead, he says that his job is to "make sure the sun's up and the girls are out" and he would rather spend his days partying.  Of course every American should be free to live their own lives as they see fit, but the problem is that Jason Greenslate is using food stamps to help support his lifestyle. Of course the vast majority of those enrolled in the food stamp program are not like this. But there are also those such as Jason Greenslate that are openly abusing the system and making it more difficult for those that actually need the help to get it. Sadly, he is a product of the system that he was raised in.

“For my own part I did not see and did not appreciate what the risks were with securitization, the credit ratings agencies, the shadow banking system, the S.I.V.’s — I didn’t see any of that coming until it happened.” - Janet Yellen, 2010

The amusing news overnight was that following slightly better than expected Q2 GDP data out of Germany (0.7% vs 0.6% expected and up from 0.0%) and France (0.5% vs 0.2% expected and up from -0.2%), driven by consumer spending and industrial output, although investment dropped again, which meant that the Eurozone which posted a 0.3% growth in the quarter has "emerged" from its double dip recession. The most amusing thing is that on an annualized basis both Germany and France grew faster than the US in Q2. And they didn't even need to add iTunes song sales and underfunded liabilities to their GDP calculation - truly a miracle! Or perhaps to grow faster the US just needs higher taxes after all? Of course, with the all important loan creation to the private sector still at a record low, and with the ECB not injecting unsterilized credit, the European depression continues and this is merely an exercise in optics and an attempt to boost consumer confidence.

In the past the Jackson Hole conference very much revolved around the Fed chairman with the opening remarks often the top (and most market-moving) news from the junket. Despite an interesting docket of speakers and presenters from a central banking perspective (as BofAML details below), with no major Fed officials scheduled to speak (and only Kuroda turning up from the rest of the major world central banks), the markets are likely to pay a lot less attention to Jackson Hole than in the past.

• U.S. Regulator Subpoenas Banks Over Long Warehouse Queues (BBG)
• Apple Said to Prepare Holiday Refresh of IPhones to IPads (BBG)
• Fed's Yellen Says Stance on Banks Hardened (WSJ)
• Mexico opens up its energy sector (FT)
• Spin: Greek GDP marks gradual deceleration of recession (FT) ... spin aside, it dropped 4.6%, and in reality, probably over 10%
• Made-in-Canada Solution For BlackBerry Avoids Nortel Fate (BBG)
• America's Farm-Labor Pool Is Graying (WSJ)
• Video of 'lame' cattle stirs new concern over growth drugs (Reuters)
• Paulson Bid for Steinway Trumps Kohlberg Offer (WSJ)
• Egyptian government yet to decide on pro-Mursi vigils (Reuters)

In a somewhat stunning revelation from the masters-of-money-printing, the SF Fed (whose former head is none other than alleged Fed chairwoman frontrunner Janet Yellen) has found that "asset purchase programs like QE appear to have, at best, moderate effects on economic growth and inflation." One has to wonder why this sudden change of heart? Perhaps to pave the way for the less-than-enamored-with-QE Larry Summers' arrival... as we noted previously his views that “QE is less efficacious for the real economy than most people suppose."  Or maybe this is a way for Ms. Yellen, to ingratiate herself with the president by indirecly toning down expectations she would go "feral hog" on the CTRL-P button? In any case, markets appear a little concerned at this rising Fed canon of removing the liquidity spigot despiet the all-time-highs in stocks.

Despite an overnight surge in the Chinese markets, with the Shanghai Composite closing up 2.4% following reports that China will not only continue with its "liquidity tightening" operation by, paradoxically, cutting RRR for smaller banks, but launch a stimulus for several Chinese provinces and city governments "on the quiet" in the form of jumbo-sized bank loans, and GDP news in Japan that were so bad they were almost good (although not bad enough to close the Nikkei in the green) US futures continue to take on water following the second worst week of 2013 as the market now appears resigned to a Taper announcement in just over 5 weeks (as we have claimed since May). News in Europe continues to be bipolar, with the big picture confirming that only dark skies lie ahead following yesterday's news that a new Greek bailout is just around the corner, or rather just after the Merkel reelection (even though Kotthaus perpetuated the lies and said a second cut in Greek debt is not on the agenda - although maybe he is not lying: maybe only Greek deposits will be cut this time), offset by on the margin improvements in the economic headlines, even as credit creation remains not only non-existent but as the FT reports (one year after Zero Hedge), some €3.2 trillion in financial deleveraging is still on deck meaning an unprecedented contraction in all credit-driven aggregates (one of which of course is GDP).