One week after RealVision brought us the latest Jeff Gundlach interview, in which the DoubleLine bond king explained why he is now "100% net short", on Friday Grant Williams interviewed Jim Rogers, in which George Soros' former partner (the two co-founded the Quantum Fund in 1973), is about as gloomy, warning "the next time the world comes to an end, it's going to be a bigger shock than we expect."
"I've been net short all year. The US stock market bid my macro fund and I'm doing great. I'm not having trouble at all making money on the short side. In fact, my longs are probably bringing the performance down. Because I'm net short 100%."
In a tragic development over the weekend, Bonnie Baha, head of Global Developed Credit at DoubleLine Capital LP, died as a result of an automobile accident over the weekend. As Reuters first reported, Baha, 57, helped steer the Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital into one of the fastest growing asset management firms in the United States.
"Without growth, a credit-based economy ultimately devolves into Ponzi finance, and at some point implodes..... I don't like bonds; I don't like most stocks; I don't like private equity. Real assets such as land, gold, and tangible plant and equipment at a discount are favored asset categories."
Now that we are exactly three months away from the November 8 election, if Trump wants to really boost his electoral chances, a market crash right now be certainly most welcome by his campaign. Which may be why Trump today urged his supporters to get out of equities as "interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are inflating the stock market" and warned of "very scary scenarios" for investors.
"This whole speculative mania will end tragically. How did we not learn this from 2000-2002, or 2007-2009, or the collapse of every other mania in history? My sense is that it’s a mistake to assume that yield-seeking hasn’t been fully exhausted across every class of securities...For those who insist that there is always a bull market somewhere, I would suggest that the most likely bull market to emerge here will be in bear market assets."
"... it's very difficult to see where the next step is except what I'm concerned about mostly, is stag-flation, meaning I think we're seeing the very early signs of inflation beginning finally to pick up as the issue of deflation fades.... we're in a situation now where looking at the interest rate levels that we're looking at and the inflation rates we're looking at, it's very clear that we're going to be moving reasonably shortly into a wholly different phase."
"Investors have entered a “world of uber complacency. The artist Christopher Wool has a word painting, 'Sell the house, sell the car, sell the kids.' That’s exactly how I feel – sell everything. Nothing here looks good,” Gundlach told Reuters in a telephone interview."
The big rally in stocks and bonds has some of the world’s top money managers putting up warning signs. Laurence Fink and Howard Marks joined the likes of Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach cautioning that buyers may be getting ahead of themselves... by about 25%.
As we noted yesterday, in his latest webcast to DoubleLine investors, Jeff Gundlach confirmed the key points from his weekend Barrons which summarized his outlook that "things will get worse in the future, not better." But while Gundlach's skeptical bent has been well-known, we also learned that Gundlach has been actively adding to shorts as the market breaks out to new record highs. Cited by Reuters, the new bond king said that there is "big money" to be made on the "short side."
In an otherwise quiet overnight session, which among other things saw Germany sell 10Y Bunds with a zero coupon and a negative yield (-0.05%) for the first time ever (despite being uncovered with just €4.038BN sold below the €5.00BN target) anyone hoping for a confirmation that China will be able to prop up the world economy once more, was left disappointed when earlier this morning China reported June exports and imports that once again dropped substantially in dollar terms as soft demand at home and abroad continued to weigh on the world’s largest trading nation.
The higher the market goes, the more bearish DoubleLine's "bond king" Jeff Gundlach seems to get. Case in point, just yesterday we showed why according to Gundlach, things will get worse in the future, not better. And yet stocks keep going higher (thanks to central banks). So have the new S&P500 all time highs dented Gundlach's skepticism? Ask him yourself during the Q&A in his latest "asset allocation webcast" set to start momentarily.
"What is really happening here is that there’s massive technological change, and big changes almost always lead to political instability. People who benefit from the old construct are loath to see it change, because they don’t want to lose their power and economic advantage. And so they dig their heels in even harder. That’s what we’re seeing in Britain right now. People who remember the good old days when they had factory jobs and made a good living—that’s been taken away, and they want to do something about it."