Jeff Gundlach

"Renormalization" Is Dead: The Market Is Pricing Just One Rate Hike Over Next 3 Years

Rates shock: market now pricing only one Fed hike over next 3 years. As bond yields in Europe and Japan hit new historical lows this week, the US 10y yield fell to a 4-year low, just 20bps above its 2012 historical lows. This followed a weak payrolls report, Brexit uncertainty, the beginning of the ECB’s corporate bond buying program and a very dovish June FOMC meeting which significantly cut rate forecasts in the out years. 

Global Stocks Continue To Plunge As Central Banks Disappoint, Brexit Looms

Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, as U.S. equities are on track to extend losses for a sixth day.  Europe's Stoxx 600 fell to a four-month low, sliding 1% for its sixth decline in seven days, and U.S. crude retreated for a sixth day in the longest losing streak since February. Bond yields sank to records in Germany, Australia after Japan as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said next week’s U.K. vote on European Union membership was a factor in the decision to hold interest rates steady. The Yen surged more than 2% as the Bank of Japan refrained from adding any new stimulus,

Gundlach: "Central Banks Are Losing Control" - His Latest Presentation

"Central banks are losing control and they don't know what to do ... just like the Republican establishment and Donald Trump.... The Fed is confused and their confusion spills into investor psychology," said Gundlach, who oversees more than $100 billion at Los Angeles-based DoubleLine. "The Fed changes its tone so frequently, it seems every other week the message is different. They’ve turned into the 'Zombie Fed.' They say the meeting this week is 'live,' but investors all know it isn't at all."

German Bund Yields Crash To April 2015 "Short Of A Lifetime" Record Lows

In April 2015, as Bund yields crashed towards zero, bond gurus Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach went public with their "short of a lifetime" positions which spiked german rates drastically higher. Since the peak of that bounce in May 2015, bund yields have accelerated lower and today crashed back towards those record lows at just 6.5bps (for 10Y!). The entire bund yield curve is now below zero out to over 9 years, which as we noted earlier, leaves more than $10 trillion of global bonds now negative-yielding.

Gundlach Was Right About The Short Squeeze; Warns Of "Massive Anxiety" About The Market

Gundlach said the S&P 500 Index has been struggling to reach and stay above 2,100, mirroring the slowish growth in the United States. "It's like people think that the Fed has this super-secret information about how strong the economy is about to become or that the economy is about to become smoking hot." Gundlach added: "The S&P 500 has exhibited declining highs for over a year, with two big drawdowns. This is 'dead money' with massive anxiety."

Why Stocks Keep Rising Despite Another Rate Hike On The Horizon: One Explanation

"It would seem to us that the equity outcome in the weighted average view is a lot less positive. There are few S&P 2500 optimists even at 2.5% growth but plenty of S&P 1600 or less pessimists on the negative scenario. Bottom line – one more and pretty much done is unlikely to be as risk positive as recent asset market prices action suggests."

Gundlach Predicts Yellen Will Be Dovish Today; Is "Quite Sure" Oil Prices Are Going Down Again

With verious Fed presidents having whipping up the market into a hawkish frenzy in the past two weeks, leading to a dramatic repricing in summer rate hike odds with expectations for a July rate hike now over 50%, many can be "disappointed" by Yellen's speech today, at least according to Jeff Gundlach who said Yellen appears to be more cautious on raising interest rates and he expects her comments to be dovish again on Friday, when she is scheduled to speak at an event in Harvard-Radcliffe.

All Eyes On Yellen: Global Markets Flat On Dreadful Volumes, Oil Slides

In a world where fundamentals don't matter, everyone's attention will be on Janet Yellen who speaks at 1:15pm today in Harvard, hoping to glean some more hints about the Fed's intentionas and next steps, including a possible rate hike in June or July. And with a long holiday in both the US and UK (US bond market closes at 2pm today), it is no surprise overnight trading volumes have been dreadful, helping keep global equities poised for the highest close in three weeks; this won't change unless Yellen says something that would disrupt the calm that’s settled over financial markets.

This Is What Would Make Jeff Gundlach Bullish

Is there anything that would make a gloomy Jeff Gundlach bullish? As it turns out the answer is yes, but it is a big bogey. “The market has been going sideways for 18 months, and when it breaks, either up or down, it should be a large move. So let the market prove itself. If it breaks to the upside, which I define as accelerating above 2,200, it is a good, low-risk, ‘go with’ buy." Aka, chase the momentum in either direction.

Gundlach Feels Like We Are Back In December, Says "Stocks Are Dead Money" After A Short Squeeze

Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital, said on Tuesday that the rally in U.S. stocks, which began on Monday, feels like a short squeeze and characterized U.S. stocks as "dead money." He added that  "all that matters is Yellen. She is still there. I feel like we are back in December again, where everyone thinks that there is a super secret that some Fed officials have this knowledge that the economy is really good."