How is Gundlach preparing and trading in advance "Trump presidency"? "Look at arms manufacturers, said Gundlach. He would avoid companies that are susceptible to global trade slowdowns, particularly those related to Mexico and China.... As he gets the nomination, the markets and investors are going to worry about it more. You will see a downgrading of global growth based on geopolitical risks. You must factor this into your risk-management."
While there was no unexpected overnight central bank announcement unlike yesterday's surprise by the RBA which unleashed volatility havoc in the FX market, which promptly spilled over into all asset classes, overnight stocks around the world saw another leg lower without a tangible catalyst, while EM currencies fell to a one-month low after two Fed presidents raised concern investors had become too complacent in their belief that U.S. interest rate raises will stay on hold. Or perhaps all that is happening is that after ignoring Trump, the market is starting to finally price in the possible reality of the Donald in the White House (although as Jeff Gundlach pointed out, Trump would be a far better president for the economy and the market than Hillary or Bernie).
“The market does what it should do, just not always when.” – Jesse Livermore
"A succesful investor is that which makes all the same mistakes that everyone else makes... but learns from them," explains DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach in this brief but extremely crucial to comprehend interview. If you want to know why you lost in 2008 and 2011 when you thought your 'bond' portfolio would save you... the new bond guru explains...
"The US stock market seems egregiously overvalued versus other stock markets... you are going to see declines in the US stock market and since the correlations are so high this means that probably the junk bond market will go back down, too. Negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever. It’s horrible.... Gold is doing fine. It’s preserving capital in the US, it’s been making money over the last couple of years for European investors. That’s why I own gold.... Trump is going to win. I think Clinton and Sanders are both very poor candidates."
Jeff Gundlach: "I Remain Bullish On Gold", Fed Hike Increasingly Likely "One And Done" - Live WebcastSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/12/2016 16:32 -0400
While many investors may be breathing a sigh of relief thanks to the bounce off the February low, with the S&P up 11% since the start of February – it’s still not all lollipops and rainbows out there in market-land. There’s some worrying undercurrents that could spell more trouble ahead...
"...these lines will converge!"
With China's Plunge Protection Team having intervened and set a positive spin on another poor session, traders put declines in Asia behind them as European markets rose along with U.S. index futures and commodities. European shares advanced for the first time in three days on speculation the region’s central bank will ramp up monetary stimulus on Thursday. A gauge of raw materials rebounded from its biggest selloff in a month, buoyed by gains in oil and copper. Furthermore, the previously noted selloff in Japanese government bonds - one which triggered circuit breakers and which some speculated may have been precipitated by the BOJ itself - dragged Treasuries and German bunds lower, gold fell a second day and the euro dropped versus most of its major peers.
At 4:15pm ET, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach who continues to do no wrong in the market (even if it means buying stocks at his most doom and gloomish ahead of a record short squeeze), will hold his latest webcast titled "Connect the Dots" and in which he will explain why, as he told Reuters moments ago, "the rally in risk assets is nearing the end", which in turn explains why when the short covering frenzy had gripped the market last week, Gundlach was cashing out.
Something "disturbing" has emerged for financial pundits whose only job is to appear on CNBC, Fox Business or Bloomberg TV and to present their recurring daily permabullish view while pocketing a commission in exchange for the (almost) free advertising: a proposal which would hold them accountable for their recommendations. The result: an industry-wide panic about a post "fiduciary rule" world in which talking heads on CNBC can't simply disappear for a few months after saying that "Bear Stearns is fine" days before the bank spontaneously combusts.
In an interview with Reuters Jennifer Ablan after DoubleLine Capital's February flow figures were released (it was a $2.2 billion inflow) , Gundlach said the firm is now considering closing out some of its long positions in the stocks that they purchased three weeks ago.... And just to avoid confusion, this is where Gundlach stands now: "I am bearish. There are just wiggles and jiggles in the markets."
While Gundlach Was Warning That "Equities Are In A Bear Market" 2 Weeks Ago, He Was Busy Buying StocksSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2016 14:47 -0400
It may come as a surprise that just as Gundlach was warning about the impending failure of central banks, the lack of a "bullish cash for oil", about a bear market for stocks, and about an imminent surge in gold Gundlach was.... buying stocks.
In his latest communication with the outside world, Gundlach said that gold prices are likely to reach $1400 an ounce "as investors lose faith in central banks", Reuters reported. "The evidence that negative rates are harmful and not helpful has piled up to the point that the 'In Central Banks We Trust' mantra has finally been laid bare as a hoax,"