*YELLEN: ECONOMY IS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
*YELLEN: WITH GAINS, HIKE IN COMING MONTHS MAY BE APPROPRIATE
*YELLEN: DON'T HAVE TYPICAL SCOPE TO CUT RATES IN CASE OF SHOCK
"It would seem to us that the equity outcome in the weighted average view is a lot less positive. There are few S&P 2500 optimists even at 2.5% growth but plenty of S&P 1600 or less pessimists on the negative scenario. Bottom line – one more and pretty much done is unlikely to be as risk positive as recent asset market prices action suggests."
With verious Fed presidents having whipping up the market into a hawkish frenzy in the past two weeks, leading to a dramatic repricing in summer rate hike odds with expectations for a July rate hike now over 50%, many can be "disappointed" by Yellen's speech today, at least according to Jeff Gundlach who said Yellen appears to be more cautious on raising interest rates and he expects her comments to be dovish again on Friday, when she is scheduled to speak at an event in Harvard-Radcliffe.
In a world where fundamentals don't matter, everyone's attention will be on Janet Yellen who speaks at 1:15pm today in Harvard, hoping to glean some more hints about the Fed's intentionas and next steps, including a possible rate hike in June or July. And with a long holiday in both the US and UK (US bond market closes at 2pm today), it is no surprise overnight trading volumes have been dreadful, helping keep global equities poised for the highest close in three weeks; this won't change unless Yellen says something that would disrupt the calm that’s settled over financial markets.
Is there anything that would make a gloomy Jeff Gundlach bullish? As it turns out the answer is yes, but it is a big bogey. “The market has been going sideways for 18 months, and when it breaks, either up or down, it should be a large move. So let the market prove itself. If it breaks to the upside, which I define as accelerating above 2,200, it is a good, low-risk, ‘go with’ buy." Aka, chase the momentum in either direction.
Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital, said on Tuesday that the rally in U.S. stocks, which began on Monday, feels like a short squeeze and characterized U.S. stocks as "dead money." He added that "all that matters is Yellen. She is still there. I feel like we are back in December again, where everyone thinks that there is a super secret that some Fed officials have this knowledge that the economy is really good."
Something has changed according to Jeff Gundlach. After claiming that a rate hike is "inconceivable" as recently as a month ago, a stance which he softened somewhat in recent days, Gundlach said that the Fed has changed the conditions required for a potential interest-rate hike this year. Cited by Bloomberg, Gundlach believes that the Fed's thinking has shifted from, 'if the data pattern improves we will have the green light to hike,' to 'unless the data pattern weakens we have the green light to hike.'"
Gundlach told Reuters that the with the S&P500 rangebound around 2,050 for some time, "it's tough to get much of a rally off of price-to-earnings this high with earnings falling and the Fed itching to tighten with GDP growth already projected to decline," he said. In keeping with his recent skepticism, he said that his forecast on the market remains a gloomy one: "I'm sticking with my '2 percent upside and 20 downside' prediction on U.S. stocks.... it's working, I can see it going to 1,600."
How is Gundlach preparing and trading in advance "Trump presidency"? "Look at arms manufacturers, said Gundlach. He would avoid companies that are susceptible to global trade slowdowns, particularly those related to Mexico and China.... As he gets the nomination, the markets and investors are going to worry about it more. You will see a downgrading of global growth based on geopolitical risks. You must factor this into your risk-management."
While there was no unexpected overnight central bank announcement unlike yesterday's surprise by the RBA which unleashed volatility havoc in the FX market, which promptly spilled over into all asset classes, overnight stocks around the world saw another leg lower without a tangible catalyst, while EM currencies fell to a one-month low after two Fed presidents raised concern investors had become too complacent in their belief that U.S. interest rate raises will stay on hold. Or perhaps all that is happening is that after ignoring Trump, the market is starting to finally price in the possible reality of the Donald in the White House (although as Jeff Gundlach pointed out, Trump would be a far better president for the economy and the market than Hillary or Bernie).
“The market does what it should do, just not always when.” – Jesse Livermore
"A succesful investor is that which makes all the same mistakes that everyone else makes... but learns from them," explains DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach in this brief but extremely crucial to comprehend interview. If you want to know why you lost in 2008 and 2011 when you thought your 'bond' portfolio would save you... the new bond guru explains...
"The US stock market seems egregiously overvalued versus other stock markets... you are going to see declines in the US stock market and since the correlations are so high this means that probably the junk bond market will go back down, too. Negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever. It’s horrible.... Gold is doing fine. It’s preserving capital in the US, it’s been making money over the last couple of years for European investors. That’s why I own gold.... Trump is going to win. I think Clinton and Sanders are both very poor candidates."
Jeff Gundlach: "I Remain Bullish On Gold", Fed Hike Increasingly Likely "One And Done" - Live WebcastSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/12/2016 16:32 -0400
While many investors may be breathing a sigh of relief thanks to the bounce off the February low, with the S&P up 11% since the start of February – it’s still not all lollipops and rainbows out there in market-land. There’s some worrying undercurrents that could spell more trouble ahead...