Jeff Gundlach

Jeff Gundlach recently warned that the trade that could inflict the most pain to the most people is a significant move down in yields (and potential bull flattening to the yield curve). Citi's FX Technicals group laid out numerous reasons why this is entirely possible (technically and fundamentally) but despite this, investors remain entirely enamored with stocks and, as the following chart shows, Treasury Bond sentiment now stands at 20-year extremes of bearishness.

On the heels of his less-than-optimistic presentation, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach tells Europe's Finanz und Wirtschaft "he's concerned about the growing amount of speculation" and draws a parallel between today’s markets and the dot-com boom of the late Nineties. This excellent interview takes the themes of his recent conference call and extends them as he warns "In the over thirty years I’ve been in the financial investment industry, I don’t recall a single year where I saw the year begin with the consensus being so solidified in its thinking across virtually every asset class." His biggest worry (for investors, as opposed to his funds), "the most unthinkable things happen this year and that is a basic pain trade that forces people into treasury bonds."

"Bond King" Bill Gross may not have had a good year following over $40 billion in redemptions from his $250 billion Total Return Fund, but another aspirational Bond King, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach, had an even worse year on an relative basis, when his Total Return Bond Fund saw $6 billion in redemptions ending the year at $30.9 billion in AUM following seven consecutive months of withdrawals. So in his attempt to start the new year on better footing, here is his first webcast (as usual open to the public), titled "Let the Race Begin! 2014 Markets: Year of the Horse", in which as usual Jeff will discuss the economy, the markets and his outlook for the best investment strategiest of 2014. Let's hope that for bond fund manager, that 2014 is not just another "year of the donkey", as was the case in the past year which everyone managing duration would rather forget.

At 4:15 pm Eastern, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach will be discussing the economy, the markets and his outlook for the future. Readers can register for the webcast at the following link, while for those stuck with phones can dial-in at (877) 407-6050 or (201) 689-8022 international.

Reflecting on the collapse of the USD, the surge in gold, the Chinese ratings agency downgrade, and the groundhog-day-like world in which the US government (and markets) live, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach warns that "America's credibility is slowly eroding." In his typical manner, Gundlach rapidly and efficiently covers a lot of ground in these brief clips; from the growing skepticism of the rest of the world towards the US' full faith and credit, to no end in sight for QE and reignition of bond inflows under an even more interventionist Yellen, to his views on Tesla, Google, and Apple.

Today at 4:15 pm Eastern, Doubleline's Jeff Gundlach will be sharing his latest outlook on the markets via an audio-only webcast, and as usual addressing what he believes are the best investment strategies. The audio for this webcast can be accessed at the link below (link to register here). Phone lines are be available for dial-in at (877) 407-1869 or for international calls (201) 689-8044.

At 1615ET, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach will begin his firm's latest presentation of his market views. We already know his views on the potential for higher rates and the inevitability of the taper, "the 10Y Yield may go up to as highs as 3.1% by year-end," because "investors have switched from "I don't care about volatility, I want income" to "I don't care about income, I dont want volatility." While he previously noted he "sees no sign of that changing...", we wonder if the title of his always full of charts presentation sets up for some change - "what if?" Full presentation to follow...

It would appear that the new normal's Bond gurus are struggling with the weight of the 'Taper'-ing, deleveraging, 'special-repo'-ing, government-repress-ing, EM-crisis-ing world of extreme fast money flows that the Fed has thrust upon us. Just 3 short months ago, Jeff Gundlach said that he "expects the absolute highest for the 10-year yield this year is 2.4%, but he expects it to stay closer to 2%." However, as the 10Y yield presses up towards 3.0%, he told CNBC (in this brief but insightful clip on world flows and how he sees markets playing out) that "the 10Y Yield may go up to as highs as 3.1% by year-end," because "investors have switched from "I don't care about volatility, I want income" to "I don't care about income, I dont want volatility." He sees no sign of that changing...

Jeff Gundlach may not be present at today's DoubleLine live webcast titled ominously enough "The End of QE as We Know It", which will be led by the firm's Jeffrey Sherman, but the firm is sure to provide some guidance on how the recent bond rout has impacted bond funds, and what the future of risk duration is in a time when Bernanke seems hell bent on pushing everyone out of bonds and into stocks.

A month ago DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach laid out his most recent chartapalooza view of the world and a lot has clearly changed in that brief period. In light of his comments this morning on CNBC that "the liquidation cycle appears to have run its course with Emerging Market bonds, US junk bonds, Munis, and MBS - all of which substantially underperformed Treasuries during the rate rise... July will not be a repeat of May/June in the rate market." We expect to hear more color for this market call during his discussion starting at 1615ET.

The answer is no as higher rates on developed world debt would crush their economies. And it would hurt less indebted emerging markets too.

Here is a simple way to test if the last year of housing market gains have been due to a real, fundamental, consumer-led recovery, or nothing but the latest iteration of the Fed's money bubble machine manifesting itself in the place of least du jour resistance - houses: Assume rising interest rates.

It's that time of the year again when DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach delivers his mid-year sermon, which with the fascinating title "What In The World is Going On", promises to be quite a feast at 4:15 pm Eastern. So sit back, tune in, forget today's "Unlucky 21" Tragic Tuesday Taper (which would have been a victory for the bulls no matter what: Maria said so), and let some so very rare these days counterpropaganda wash over you.

"QE detractors... see something quite different. They see QE as not responding to the collapse in the money multiplier but to some extent causing it. In this account QE – and the flatter yield curves that have resulted from it – has itself broken the monetary transmission mechanism, resulting in central banks pushing ever more liquidity on a limper and limper string. In this view, it is not inflation that’s at risk from QE, but rather, the health of the financial system. In this view, instead of central banks waiting for the money multiplier to rebound to old normal levels before QE is tapered or ended, central banks must taper or end QE first to induce the money multiplier and bank lending to increase."

"Since we're dealing with markets that are being manipulated by central bank policies, there is no such thing as economic analysis anymore. All you have is the imaginations of central bankers, and you don't know what they're going to do, so you have to be diversified."