Jeff Gundlach

It seems, just as everyone knew but really did not want to admit, that AAPL is the core (pun intended) of the entire risk-rally. With the re-appearance of the bond-market this morning after their long-weekend, risk-assets everywhere have caught the tech companies' cold with EURUSD at one-week lows - back under 1.2900, S&P futures tumbling back towards pre-QEternity levels and having wiped out all of last week's gains, as AAPL is down over 2% (seemingly picking up speed once we noted the 10% iCorrection earlier). Oil is holkding gains while USD strength is sapping Silver, Copper, and Gold's performance. Treasuries have snapped back to low yields of the day (down around 4-5bps). VIX has snapped back above 16% (up around 1 vol).

After last week's presentation, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach (having rotated his spec play from Long Nattie, Short AAPL - which was a winner - to Long SHCOMP, Short SPX) committed the cardinal sin in a great interview this morning with CNBC's Gary Kaminsky. The apocryphal 'new' bond guru noted that he is against big government, doesn't like risk assets at these levels, believes QE will end in higher rates (adding that he would not be surprised to see 10Y yields 100bps higher by the end of the year), but most abhorrently: "the obsession with Apple is a truly remarkable social phenomenon - the stock is over-believed and over-bought. There is NO exit for the Fed, QE3 will be ineffective, and it is more likely that the Fed buys all the Treasury bonds that exist." Two must-see clips covering why buy-and-hold is completely dead thanks to government intervention to his preference for secured credit funds (where have we heard that before?) to the huge risks in buying financial stocks and the vulnerability of risk-assets - as the world realizes the circular financing reality of Europe.

Double-Line's Jeff Gundlach presented 66 pages of chart-pr0n covering everything from Government Spending to Consumer Spending; from eating-out costs to food inflation; from future economic growth slowdown indicators to housing recovery hopes and reality; and from foreign stocks to Treasuries, MBS, and metals. Between a lack of surprise if 10Y rates were 100bps higher by year-end; and his call to 'sell the S&P 500 against a long in the Shanghai Composite', there's a little here for everyone (and his funds are killing it).

Jeff Gundlach discussed mortgages, models, math, and moronic delusion with Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV this morning. Starting with why Europe matters to US Treasury and mortgage markets, the DoubleLine boss goes on to address whether banks/hedge-funds have become too math-centric. "I don't believe in models" is how Gundlach begins his diatribe on the over-confidence in math and empirical relationships. Jeff believes there is no reason to hold any investment grade bonds that are inside of 3 years (and perhaps even 5 years) because they "just basically have no yield" and further, it is non-sensical to think that short-term interest rates are going up in the US. As Socrates said, Gundlach echoes the fact that 'one should not try to know everything; but respect the things that one cannot know' - don't delude yourself - which seems like good advice for all those with such high convictions of sustained reality. Towards the end he discusses his already-infamous short-AAPL, Long-Nattie trade - adding that the trade has 'monster legs' and the biggest mistake investors make is exiting winners too early.

Just days after his last live webcast "To QE3 or Not To QE3" DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach is out once again with his latest presentation and live webcast titled "Deficits Don't Matter" (just don't tell that to the PIIGS). We are confident this is a Regan-referencing joke. Hopefully, in the off case it isn't, Jeff should also make the case why, in that case, taxation is also meaningless and should be abolished. After all, the Federal Government, courtesy of various newfangled economic theories can print its way to gargantuan debt and perpetual prosperity.

Appropos Bernanke's razor's-edge tight-rope-walk fence-sitting as the not-too-cold-not-too-hot economy reduces the Fed's ability to do anything, Jeff Gundlach of Double Line provided a succinct explanation of the the 'uncomfortable position' the place-of-confusion Fed finds itself in. Simplifying the dilemma to: the Fed cannot raise rates as the dramatic implications for the huge debt load (and implictly the interest expense saving the budget deficit) of the US Government are untenable while at the same time inflation (in the things we need - not just want) is rising notably. However the new bond-king notes rather sarcastically, that the Fed can show that there is only modest inflation thanks to housing and wage growth (and herelies 'the biflation'). The old-school-Fed's efforts at pre-emptive strikes against inflation is simply not going to happen, he states, citing an "intentional attempt to suppress national income - an attempt to stop nominal GDP growing too much - simply won't be tolerated until inflation moves into the 4-5% category".

There are those who thought last week's massive Initial claims miss was the last one. They were wrong. Instead of printing at the expected 370K, an improvement from last week's already big miss of 380K, this week came at a whopping 386K, the worst standalone print in 4 months. Well, until last week's revision that is: instead of the 380K print that stunned everyone, last week's number has now been revised to a massive 388K. Why? So that mainstream media can declare, with a straight face, that this week saw the number of initial claims decline! Here is the reality: last week's expectation was for a print of 355K. Instead we got a number of 380K. Now this number is being revised to 388K, and is the biggest initial expectation to revision miss since early 2011. Needless to say, this means two things: 1) the transitory bump associated with record warm weather, which was nothing but pulling from the future, is now over, and 2) the April NFP print will be another disaster, which is just as the Fed wants it -  after all it is time to start setting the stage for the NEW QE (and certainly not QE3 which is already in place as Jeff Gundlach was so kind to explain) now that Obama is the margin hiker in chief.

Earlier today, thousands listened to Jeff Gundlach live (if with the occasional flash crash) lay out his latest views on the economy and markets. For those who missed it, as well as for those who may want a refresher on why Gundlach is slowly building up a natgas position, or why he is buying gold on dips, here is the full slidedeck used by the DoubleLine manager.

(Today, we have the date correct) DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach (whose AUM is now well into the $30 billion area - a scorching ascent for the former TCW manager) will host a live call at 4:15 PM Eastern today, on the ever so salient topic (if somewhat regurgitated soundbite) of whether "To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the question." As is traditional, Gundlach will accept questions from the audience. And as always, lots of very interesting tangential info to be gleaned from one of the truly objective and original thinkers out there.

Correction: the Gundlach call is tomorrow. We got a little ahead of ourselves. We will bring this post back tomorrow after the close.

DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach (whose AUM is now well into the $30 billion area - a scorching ascent for the former TCW manager) will host a live call at 4:15 PM Eastern today, on the ever so salient topic (if somewhat regurgitated soundbite) of whether "To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the question." As is traditional, Gundlach will accept questions from the audience. And as always, lots of very interesting tangential info to be gleaned from one of the truly objective and original thinkers out there.

Earlier, you heard it from Jeff Gundlach, whom one can not accuse (at least not yet) of sleeping on his laurels and/or being a broken watch, who told his listeners to "reduce risk right now" especially in the frenzied momo stocks. Now, it is David Rosenberg's turn who tries to refute the presiding transitory dogma that 'things are ok" and that a Greek default will be contained (no, it won't be, and if nobody remembers what happened in 2008, here is a reminder of everything one needs to know ahead of the "controlled", whatever that is, Greek default). Alas, it will be to no avail, as one of the dominant features of the lemming herd is that it will gladly believe the grandest of delusions well past the ledge. On the other hand, they don't call it the pain trade for nothing.

Your listened the call, now enjoy the Gundlach slides in the leisure of your own unrehypothecated concrete bunker, 50 feet below sea level.

While the star of multibillionaire Bill Gross may or may not be fading (the jury is still out on what the final outcome will be for the man who so far alone among his peers has dared to point out the lunacy in the Fed's actions), that of his far smaller and nimbler peer Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital has been rising rapidly, and at last check has his fund's AUMs at over $25 billion, a doubling in a few short months. Gundlach is conducting his periodic webcast live at 4:15pm Eastern (i.e., now) at the link below. Anyone can join in. And by the title of the presentaiton, it promises to be quite interesting. Click on the following Link for webcast or the image below.

The defining soundbite from the call Q&A: Regarding Bank of America - "It is wise to avoid banks. Not surprised BAC has gone up - just like NFLX - just like Italian bonds. Reduce risk right now, including, Bank of America."

DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach, who has managed to double the AUM of his new firm in a few short months following an admirable return in 2011, and at last check had over $22 billion, as usual has put together a rather impressive slidedeck of raw data for his just completed investor call, which the chart porn addicts will salivate over for hours courtesy of the plethora of items covered: from Europe, to the US economy, to all financial products. Of particular note is slide 26 which shows the complete breakdown of the US bond market - it is curious that recently Treasurys became the biggest asset class on a relative basis, greater than both MBS and Corporate. The implication here is that the Fed, courtesy of being the largest single holder of Treasurys, now in effect is the marginal price setter of the largest US security.