Jim O'Neill

In Case You Are Still Wondering Why "The World Is Better Than You Think"...

If you want to avoid all the red ink in the futures this morning, and dig your head deep in the sand of denial, here is Goldman Sachs to the rescue. As we pointed out a few days ago, Jim O'Neill, who is likely more devastated by Man U's loss of this year's Premiership title than the daily accumulating of new and improved criminal charges against his firm (his response to that, and to anything else: "BRIC"), earlier led a call titled 'Why the World is better than you think.' We have decided to pass, but to avoid being branded non-objective pessimists, we provide our readers with the means to listen to the replay - this way you can get all your 100% RDA Vitamin H1 and Joseph Cohen hot flash..backs all at once.

And Now For Some Permarosiness From Goldman's BRICster

"This is not the sovereign crisis you are looking for."

"This is not the sovereign crisis we are looking for."

"Buy shares of Goldman Sachs which is innocent of being a market monopolist."

"We will buy shares of Goldman Sachs which is innocent of being a market monopolist."

"Move along"

"Move along, move along"

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Greek Debt Crisis: Lehman 2.0?

According to estimates by The Economist, foreign banks’ exposure to Greece, Portugal and Spain combined comes to €1.2 trillion. All this could all end horribly, if governments refuse to cut spending and markets refuse to fund that spending.

Jim Chanos On Charlie Rose - Full Interview

You have all seen the Chanos interview snippets made available last week. Now watch the full interview by Charlie Rose in which Jim Chanos deconstructs China. Goldman's (make that Jim O'Neill) response: "BRIC BRIC decoupling BRIC baltic dry BRIC Goldman Nepal office BRIC." Chanos destroys the Friedman defense to never short countries with $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves: he points out that the last two countries that had similar foreign currency reserves relative to the size of their economy was Japan in 1989 and the US in 1929. I will let that be the end of that discussion. It has no bearing on whether there is a domestic credit bubble. Countries embark on domestic credit bubbles often tend to accumulate foreign currency reserves." After listening to the full 26 minute interview, we are confident that the Dow will hit 36,000 in anticipation of the Chinese collapse, as the IMF is forced to expand its just amended $550 billion bailout facility to a cool quadrillion. Full transcript attached.

Frontrunning: April 1

  • Larry Fink's $12 trillion shadow (Vanity Fair)
  • Jobless claims beat estimates by 1,000 at 439,000 after prior week revised, as always, negatively by 3,000; Same thing with continuing claims (Bloomberg)
  • After getting a taxpayer bail out in 2008, Jamie Dimon attacks demonization of banks (JPM)
  • Oil hits 18 month high (Reuters)
  • Kerviel #2? SocGen investigating "anomalies" in Singapore account (Bloomberg)
  • Will spending unding ObamaCare trigger the next financial crisis (RCM)
  • Are jobless recoveries the new normal? (Cleveland Fed)
  • Jim O'Neill: tough talk on China ignores economic reality (FT)
  • PIMCO sees Europe's
    action on Greece as ineffective in fixing the country's problems, while
    Britain's sovereign debt rating could be downgraded within a year (Reuters)
  • Nothing has changed from 2005: house flippers in U.S. crowd courthouse steps in hunt for deals (Bloomberg)

Here Is Your Latest Dose Of Xanax From Man U Board Member, BRIC Inventor And Goldmanite (In That Order) Jim O'Neill

I am back from yet more travel, this time a couple of days in Florida, and a quick 24 hours on the –rainy- shores of Lake Como at the Spring Ambrosetti forum. Of note: the state of the world/me being an optimist. Judging by the mood of people at Ambrosetti, and the nature of the questions and comments I received on both the two panels I was on, and separately in conversation, people continue to think my optimism is , sort of nuts. At the heart of it, people simply find it impossible to believe that global demand can remain above 4pct-ish if the US is struggling. There is one major dilemma with this, substantially held view, it is called “ the evidence”. - Jim O'Neill

Roubini And Jim O'Neill Spar On Greece, China And Man U

If there is one topic that has been beaten to death, reincarnated, then Friend-o'ed three more times by everyone in desperate need of a Google hit or a TV appearance, it is Greece and China (and also Manchester United if you live in the UK). This will not stop us from presenting this FT clip, in which Goldman's Jim O'Neill and Nouriel Roubini spar over the Greek bailout and the Chinese economy (and, you guess it, Man U). Guess who is the optimist and who is the pessimist. For the most part a bland recreation of each pundit's party line, although we do appreciate Roubini's reminder that the immediate catalyst responsible for the 20% Black Monday drop (at a time when the market was poised on a precipice much as it is today) was a topic near and dear to everyone: the announcement of a trade war.

"20 years ago we had a large trade deficit with Japan and Germany. The dollar was weakening but the Germans and Japanese were resisting, and the US got angry. And the US Secretary of the Treasury Baker got on TV on Sunday and said if you don't let if move we are going to retaliate. The next day the stock market crashed 20%."

Are the starts aligning for a repeat appearance of just such a crash, especially as the US has mere days left in which to brand China a currency manipulator?

Goldman's Erik Nielsen Filters Out The Greek Background Noise

Goldman's Chief European strategist is starting to sound less and less confident that all shall be well. The same can not be said for his ebullient (and still employed) colleague Jim O'Neill, whose answer to everything is "BRIC." Anyway, here are Erik Nielsen's latest (and increasingly more skeptical) summary views on the Greek bailout. By the way, the IMF shotgun approach to "helping" any and every member country is to peg its currency to something and establishing a currency board. The IMF simply does not know how to do anything else. So how the hell can the IMF operate in the context of a monetary union?

Jim O'Neill Mea Culpa: "Hey I Was Dead Wrong On The Whole Yuan Thing, But... Hey Look Over There, Stocks Are Up"

Permabull Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs surprises everyone by issuing yet another missive after being dead wrong on the Renminbi a month ago, and very vocally so. The surprise is not in his persistent frothiness (the man is a singularly male version of an undoubtedly female A. Joseph Cohen after all), or his attempt at mea culpa'ing (we wonder what sport instrument Roach would recommend using on Mr. O'Neill), but that Jim is still at Goldman after the entire Red Devils fiasco. Oh, and speaking of sport, O'Neill joins the Krugman-Schumer team in providing most unwelcome policy advice to China.

Jim O'Neill's Weekend Just Got Really Bad, As China Prepares To Nullify Local Government Loan Guarantees

The horrible news hits just keep on coming for Goldman's Jim O'Neill. First the BRIC acronym creator (soon to be largely forgotten when confronted with much more awesome comparables as CRAP and STUPID, the latter of which has already been subsumed for general consumption by CNBC) is rumored to be getting the boot from Goldman due to his involvement in the Red Knights group which is seeking to acquire the Red Devils (aka Manchester United), and now China just announced it is about to pull the rug out of the entire lending concept when it announces it is nullifying loan guarantees by all local governments. Just to put this in perspective, the impact of this is akin to what Obama did to Chrysler's secured lenders, multiplied by about one Fed dollop of MBS holdings (i.e., trillion), with debtors not even getting the courtesy Steve Rattner K-Y reacharound. The total potential impact: $3.5 trillion smackers. And some large, recently bailed out bank, has been seen as claiming the CNY is about to get revalued. HA HA HA. Oh, and goodbye BRICs.

Define Irony: Bank Doing "God's Work" Is Preparing To Acquire Red Devils

Jim O'Neill must be in hog, er PIIG, er BRIC heaven: it appears his employer, Goldman Sachs, is about to become the proud owner of O'Neill's all time favorite Manchester United. At least that way the reason for an AIG brand still advertised on the front of all ManU players' shirts will finally make sense: call it bailout advertising, in which AIG (indirectly) paid about $160 billion in taxpayer money to Goldman and a few others so its name would grace the uniforms of Goldman's latest acquisition. According to Sky News, a consortium of investors, which includes Goldman Sachs and law firm Freshfields, affectionately called the Red Knights, is preparing to acquire the soccer team from the much hated Glazer family, which in the span of several years has gotten ManU's debt/GDP ratio (or some other BS metric) to be almost as bad as that of the United States. Alternatively, it is oddly ironic that the bank that does God's work will soon be the owner of the Red Devils. The question: will Lloyd soon be sitting in satan's box at Old Trafford?

Jim O'Neill Redirects Greek Problems To The Wonderful World Of BRICs, Suggests A German-BRIC Currency Union (For The Sensational Journalists)

Read the following from Goldman's Jim O'Neill, take two tablets of hopium, and first thing tomorrow use REDI to buy 10 times your net worth in BRIC stocks - buy indiscriminately - they are all going up, up, up. Also don't forget to buy some Man U leaps. After all with a hundred years of momentum behind you (and billions of dollars spent in lobbying to preserve the status quo) it is not as if something new can ever come out of left field (both literally and metaphorically). At least Goldman's permabullish analyst has had the chance to read the Goldman Monthly FX Analyst report, which substantially dropped its $/BRL 3/6/9 month targets from R$1.60, R$1.65 and R$1.75 to R$1.75, R$1.85 and R$1.90. O'Neill notes: "it does appear [theReal is] overvalued" Needless to say, we were looking forward to this happening for quite some time. And as much as Goldman touts the BRICs, we are confident that our own creation, the STUPIDs, will be getting much more airtime over the next decade.

Janet Yellen Discusses The China Paradox

Janet Yellen, who in mid-November completed a "fact-finding" trip to Hong King and China, provides some insightful observations into the closely tied monetary fates of China, Hong Kong and the US, as well as China's Catch 22 paradox of overcapacity. As Yellen points out, US monetary policy is a critical factor for both Hong Kong and the mainland "both Hong Kong and the mainland are currently pegging to the dollar, they are both to some extent stuck with the policy the Federal Reserve has chosen to promote recovery." In essence, and in confirmation with Zero Hedge's "vassal theory" of the Sino-US relationship, China has a "considerable interest" in the Fed's exit strategy. Yellen demonstrates that while China is forced to look to growing its own internal economy now that the export-led, current account surplus model is over, the transition will require yet more stimulus, thereby further inflaming the asset bubble, spurred by the massive overcapacity already in place in the country, and further pushing the country into a monetary-fiscal zone of disequilibrium. This would be exacerbated by any move to strengthen the Yuan, which is what has to happen for the US to keep inflating its troubles, yet won't happen so long as China continues being in denial about its bubble conditions, thanks to a phenomenal precedent set by none other than the Federal Reserve itself. Yellen won't go so far as admitting it, but all the ingredients for a massive Chinese (and thus, U.S.) crash are now in place.

Hugh Hendry Recreates ABX, Discloses Mystery Trade With 1.5% Downside, 75% Upside

"On the other side of my book, I have discovered something which is close to the Paulson trade in CDOs in US mortgages in 2005 and 2006. Can you believe that a trade with that kind of dynamic exists today. Can you believe if nothing happens and I am just wrong than again I will lose 1.5% but if I am right I will make 75%." Hugh Hendry