Jim Reid

Day 3 Of Global Post-Brexit Rally: European Stocks, US Futures At Session Highs

Day three of the post-Brexit rally continues, and after some initial weakness due to concerns about Chinese currency devaluation, both European stock and US equity futures were trading at session highs, facilitated by yesterday's stress test results which saw dozens of US banks unleash a tsunami of stock buyback announcement which in turn pushed S&P futures to new post-Brexit highs.

Brexit: Here Are The Latest Known Unknowns

When will Article 50 be triggered? Will it ever be triggered? Will there ever actually be a Brexit? Who is the next Conservative leader? Will there be a snap general election? On any negotiations will Europe play hard ball or compromise? Elsewhere will Italy lose the senate reform referendum in October and could Italy have an EU referendum after a fresh election? And will the French elections next year be another spoke in the wheel for Europe?

Global Stock Surge Continues As "Investors Look To Central Banks For Support"

Why the ongoing rally? A squeeze, sure, and also month-end fund flows. But the fundamental driver remains one and the same, and we quote Bloomberg: "the relief rally endures as Asian and European stocks rally with crude oil amid speculation policy makers will use stimulus to blunt the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, including a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Investors are looking to policy makers for support."

About That Historic Collapse In Sterling: It Was "Only" The 9th Biggest Drop Going Back To 1862

Over the past several days, the financial media has been preoccupied with the fascinating - and historic - drop in sterling which as this site also noted, was the biggest in history. As it turns out, that is not the case, as the data was limited by the available records on file with major service providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters. However, if one goes back in time, as DB's Jim Reid has done, it appears that Friday's sterling move was rather puny by true historical comparisons.

Global Stocks Rebound, US Futures Jump On Expectation Of "Coordinated Intervention By Central Banks"

After a historic two-day selloff, which as shown yesterday slammed European banks by the most on record the wildly oversold conditions, coupled with hopes for yet another global, coordinated central bank intervention, coupled with modest hope that David Cameron's trip to Brussels today may resolve some of the Article 50 gridlock, have been sufficient to prompt a modest buying scramble among European stocks in early trading, with the pound and commodities all gaining for the first time since the shock Brexit vote.

Deutsche Bank: "There's No Escaping The Fact That This Is A Class War"

"There's no escaping the fact that this is a class war. Whether its globalisation, immigration, inequality, poor economic growth or a combination of all of them it's quite clear from this and other anti-establishment movements that the status quo can't last in a democracy. Eventually you'll have a reaction. This is one such major reaction and given that the UK growth rate has been ok of late, it would be strange if pressure didn't continue to build elsewhere where growth has been lower for longer."

European Stocks, US Futures Extend Slide On UK Chaos, Pound Carnage

With global asset correlations once again approaching 1, overnight stocks have been trading in broadly "risk off" mode, following every twist of pound sterling and the rapidly deteriorating British financial situation as "chaos infects" virtually all markets, from China, to European banks, to US equity futures.  As a result of ongoing aftershocks from the Brexit vote, coupled with the sudden political chaos in UK politics, where both parties now seem in disarray, with the pound has extended its selloff to a fresh 31-year low dropping below the Friday lows while European equities are dropping to levels last seen in February.

Voting Begin: Stocks Surge, Sterling Hits 2016 Highs, Futures Flirt With 2100

On the day voting for the UK referendum finally began, what started off as a trading session with a modest upward bias, promptly turned into a buying orgy in painfully illiquid markets shortly after Europe opened as an influx of buy orders pushed European stocks 2% higher, propelled by cable which was above 1.49 for the first time since December and USDJPY climbing over 1.05 in sympathy, following the release of the final Ipsos Mori poll which showed Remain at 52% to 48% for leave.

Eerie Calm Across Markets One Day Before The Main Event: Asia, Europe, US Unchanged

There is an eerie quiet across markets, one day before the year's main risk event: with the UK referendum vote starting in less than 24 hours and results due out shortly after, it is as if even the algos have stopped frontrunning other algos, in a market so thin and illiquid even the smallest order can result in a gap, either higher or lower. As a result, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are little changed ahead of Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index swinging between gains and losses more than five times so far today.

Stocks, Sterling Rise As "Brexit" Fears Forgotten; Dollar Drops Ahead Of Yellen Speech

Tuesday's overnight price action has been a continuation of yesterday's Brexit relief rally, as investors focused on the two latest polls favorable to Remain in Thursday's referendum (while ignoring the YouGov poll which gave Leave a small lead), and hoping the doom and gloom by George Soros will convince the undecideds to vote against Leaving. As a result, global stocks continued their advance while pound extending the biggest rally since 2008.

Global Stocks Soar, Pound Surges Most Since 2008 As Brexit Odds Tumble

Global equities rallied and the pound strengthened the most since 2008, soaring by 300 pips since the Friday close as polls signaled the campaign for the U.K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged by the most since February as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced with S&P 500 futures.  Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped.

How To Trade Brexit

on "Brexit": long gold, short peripheral debt versus bunds, long EUR vol vs GBP, short volatility/long risk once sterling troughs.
on "Bremain": long DM equities for the bearish positioning unwind and short volatility immediately; short Spanish & Italian bonds vs. gilts.

Global Stocks Rebound As Brexit Odds Decline Following Tragic Death Of UK Lawmaker

While it may very well not last and all of yesterday's gains could evaporate instantly if the Brexit vote is set to take place as scheduled, all 10 industry groups in the MSCI All-Country World Index advanced, with the index rising 0.7% trimming the week’s drop 1.6%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.4%. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed, after equities Thursday snapped their longest losing streak since February. . Oil rose, paring its biggest weekly decline in more than two months. Bond yields around the globe fell.