John Hussman

Weekend Reading: Fed Up

"The important point to note here is the historical deviation between exuberance and economic realities has generally NOT been resolved by reality catching up with fantasy. It has always been the other way around."

50% Correction Is Impossible! Really?

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as they have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."

– Dr. Irving Fisher, Economist at Yale University 1929

3 Things: Fed Fubar, Feb Flop, & A Fifty-Percent Drop

"The problem our nation faces is a serious one. We have now paired a massive speculative bubble with an errant pin that has every prospect of creating disruption. A steep financial retreat was already baked in the cake prior to the election - there are few policies that have the capacity to make the consequences substantially better, but many that could make the outcomes substantially worse."

Sizing Up The Bubble - A Major Inflection Point Is Coming

"... for some idea of the precipice the market has reached, the median price/revenue ratio of individual S&P 500 component stocks now stands just over 2.45, easily the highest level in history. The longer-term norm for the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio is less than 1.0. Even a retreat to 1.3, which we’ve observed at many points even in recent cycles, would take the stock market to nearly half of present levels."

Weekend Reading: Trump-eting Dow 20,000

We can only surmise how this eventually turns out. But whether it is extremely suppressed volatility, extreme long positions in small-cap stocks or historical short positions in bonds, the “rubber band” is stretched very tightly. Of course, while “Trump-xuberance” currently reigns, there seems to be nothing to worry about. But then again, maybe that is exactly what we should be worrying about.

The Real Value Of Cash

If an individual is “literally” burying cash in their backyard, then the discussion of the loss of purchasing power is appropriate. However, if cash is a “tactical” holding to avoid short-term destruction of capital, then the protection afforded outweighs the loss of purchasing power in the distant future.

Weekend Reading: Anticipation

“Stock market bubbles don’t appear out of thin air. They have a basis in reality. But that reality is distorted by misconception..

Weekend Reading: The Beginning Of The Ending

The only other time in history where the Dow advanced 5000 points over a 24-month period was during the 1998-1999 period of “irrational exuberance” as the Fed was fighting the fears an inflationary advance, while valuations were rising and GDP growth rates were slowing. Maybe it’s just coincidence. Maybe “this time is different.” Or it could just be the inevitable beginning of the ending of the current bull market cycle.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Weekend Reading: Copious Cognitions

If this market rally seems eerily familiar, it’s because it is. In fact, the backdrop of the rally reminds me much of what was happening in 1999...