John Hussman

Moving Closer To The Precipice

Slowing money supply and credit growth and historically extremely high stock market valuations far more often than not turn out to be uneasy bedfellows. In fact, usually the latter will eventually fall out of bed. Circumspection remains advisable.

Weekend Reading: Sentient Illumination

With a continuing resolution for $1 Trillion passed this week, which will fund the government for 5-whole months, there seems to be little consideration given to the disconnect between increase debt levels and slower economic growth.

Weekend Reading: Trumponomics – End Of 100 Days

So, here we are at the end of the first 100-days, with little progress being made toward the things that count the most with investors. With asset prices currently priced for perfection, the real risk is that of “disappointment.” It will likely pay to “err to the side of caution” for now as the risk is clearly tilted against reward for now.

Weekend Reading: Markets May Be Getting Expensive

"This leaves markets with the “hope” trade in peril as Congress continues to trip itself up in moving its legislative agenda forward while, at the same time, the Fed has accelerated the pace of monetary tightening and sending clear warnings to the markets...This has “bad” written all over it."

LIBOR Pains

LIBOR is a benchmark reference rate (which explains why some banks were so eager to manipulate it). The pricing of all kinds of floating-rate debt is tied to it (corporate loans, mortgages, student loans, credit card debt, and assorted derivatives, such as currency and interest rate swaps, etc.). That has now become a problem.

Margin Debt Hits New Record High But Analysts Say "Don’t Worry"

"This isn’t a signal to me that markets are reaching an exuberant level like they did in the 1920s or 1990s, when speculation was rampant.  What our clients are doing is borrowing against the portfolios because interest rates are so low. They’re not leveraging up because they see the market exploding to the upside; they’re using leverage because they can pay it off at any time.”

Weekend Reading: Lack Of Perspective

"While it is often said it is only “time IN the market” that matters, investors must remember “time” is the one commodity we can not replace."

Weekend Reading: Just Buy Everything

“It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.– Henry Ford