John Hussman

Weekend Reading: If I Was Janet Yellen

Unfortunately, for Janet, this is the 'trap'. The liquidity will dry up, the inventory restocking cycle will end, and the next “crisis” will be on the horizon with Ms. Yellen remaining stuck near the “zero bound.”  The past opportunities to “normalize” interest rate policy have come and gone. This opportunity will likely pass also and, as always, the Fed will realize far too late they are trapped. But by then, it won’t matter much to investors, or what’s left of them, anyway.

"All-Time-Highs"

"...central bankers seem to view elevated security valuations as “wealth.” The longer this fallacy persists, the worse the subsequent fallout will be. I have little doubt that future generations will look at the reckless arrogance of today’s central bankers no differently than we view speculators in the South Sea Bubble and the Dutch Tulip-mania. Unfortunately, there is no mechanism by which historically-informed pleas of “no, stop, don’t!” will penetrate their dogmatic conceit. Nor can we change the psychology of investors."

Weekend Reading: Central Banks Save The World

For now, Central Banks have seemingly accomplished the rescue of the entire global financial system by one again lofting asset prices higher. The problem, however, remains the underlying fundamental issues of weak earnings, slowing economic growth and a collapsing Chinese economy. There is a point, unknown to anyone currently, where the failure of monetary policy will occur.

It's Not The Brexit Stupid!

Brexit is just a symptom of the disease eating away at the fabric of our global economy. Lehman’s collapse was not the cause of the 2008 worldwide financial crisis. It was just the excuse for something that was going to happen no matter what. Bad debt, bad bankers, bad regulators, bad politicians, media cheer leading, and a willfully ignorant populace were a toxic combination – and it’s worse today.

Imagine...

Now imagine what might happen next...

Why The Next Decade Will Foil Financial Plans

"This time is 'not different'. The only difference will be what triggers the next valuation reversion when it occurs. If the last two bear markets haven’t taught you this by now, I am not sure what will. Maybe the third time will be the 'charm'."

Weekend Reading: Intelligent Asininity

The current market process certainly seems far more similar to the 60-70’s than most people would like to admit. The only question is how long will it take for the “intelligent asininity” of the bullish proletariat to finally wear thin.

Just Three Things

Historically speaking, it is unlikely that with reported earnings early in the reversion process that we will see a sharp recovery in the second half of the year as currently expected by the majority of mainstream analysts. As long as the Fed remains accommodative, the deviation between fundamentals and fantasy will continue to stretch to extremes. The end result of which has never “been different this time.”

Weekend Reading: Yellen’s Line In The Sand

The central bank already missed the “window of opportunity” for normalizing rates in a manner that doesn’t hamper the recovery. While the big news for the market was the release of the April 27th FOMC minutes which once again suggested the Federal Reserve may be on a path to hike rates sooner rather than later. The reality is simple, with the markets hovering on critical support, a Presidential election just around the corner and no real evidence of economic recovery, the likelihood of a rate hike in June is approaching zero.