John Hussman

The Real Value Of Cash

If an individual is “literally” burying cash in their backyard, then the discussion of the loss of purchasing power is appropriate. However, if cash is a “tactical” holding to avoid short-term destruction of capital, then the protection afforded outweighs the loss of purchasing power in the distant future.

Weekend Reading: Anticipation

“Stock market bubbles don’t appear out of thin air. They have a basis in reality. But that reality is distorted by misconception..

Weekend Reading: The Beginning Of The Ending

The only other time in history where the Dow advanced 5000 points over a 24-month period was during the 1998-1999 period of “irrational exuberance” as the Fed was fighting the fears an inflationary advance, while valuations were rising and GDP growth rates were slowing. Maybe it’s just coincidence. Maybe “this time is different.” Or it could just be the inevitable beginning of the ending of the current bull market cycle.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Weekend Reading: Copious Cognitions

If this market rally seems eerily familiar, it’s because it is. In fact, the backdrop of the rally reminds me much of what was happening in 1999...

Did The Market Just Flash A Hindenburg Omen Warning?

Amid the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in the stock, bond, and commodity markets this week, a few 'rotten' things began to emerge. With major indices diverging notably, new highs and new lows soaring, and breadth deteriorating, analysts noted the re-awakening of The Hindenburg Omen signal...

Weekend Reading: Trumponomics

“The problem for Trump is that we no longer reside in the 80’s where a large group of ‘baby boomers’ were entering the workforce and driving a massive wave of innovation and productivity changes.  Today, we are on the wrong side of the demographic trends combined with falling productivity and labor force growth.”

Weekend Reading: The Trump Effect

It has been interesting to watch market participants swing from “Trump The Terrible” to “Trump The Great” in relation to the markets and economy and he isn’t even in office yet. But while Trump certainly has an extensive list of actions for his first 100-days, there are many headwinds to actual policy implementation and ultimately their success.

3 Things: Distortions, Earnings Missed, You're Crazy

"While you may be invested in an ‘index,’ when the next bear market correction begins, and the pain of loss becomes large enough, ‘passive indexing’ will turn into ‘active panic.’ Sure, you can hang on. But there will be a point where your conviction will eventually be broken. It is just a function of how much loss it takes to get there."

Weekend Reading: Stuck In The Middle - Again

Just as was witnessed following “The Great Depression,” the bursting of the next asset bubble will likely once again drive participants away from the market for an entire generation, or longer. The problem for individual investors is the “trap” that is currently being laid between the appearance of strong market dynamics against the backdrop of weak economic and market fundamentals. Ignoring the last two to chase the former has historically not worked out well.

Weekend Reading: Time To Be A Contrarian?

Currently, there is little argument the “bullish trend” remains intact. As such the mainstream analysis, if you can actually call it that, continues to the tout the inherent benefits of low cost, passive indexing and the ultimate “chase for yield.” However, it is here the real danger lies. Much of the monetary flows into passive indexes is actually NOT PASSIVE. When the eventual reversion comes, and it will, the pain inflicted on individuals, as is always the case, will turn “passive indexers” in “panicked sellers.”