John Hussman

Weekend Reading: They're Baaaccckkk!

"With cash levels at the lowest level since 1997, and equity allocations near the highest levels since 1999 and 2007... investors are now functionally 'all in'..."

"Everyone's In The Pool"

"Threats of nuclear war, hurricanes, disaster, fires, earthquakes, and civil unrest have failed to unnerve investors... It seems all that has been missed was famine and pestilence."

Weekend Reading: Harvey & The Broken Window Fallacy

"... the reality is we are very late in the current economic cycle. Just like in 2008, it was well after the fact, when the economic data was negatively revised, the recession became clearly evident. Given the deterioration is credit, the rise in delinquencies and plunge in savings rates, the economic back drop is likely far weaker than headlines currently suggest. While Harvey may extend the current cycle for a little while longer, I would not get overly complacent with highly aggressive allocation models. Like I said, there is no free lunch."

Weekend Reading: Storm Warning

"... while mainstream analysts continue to point to the “number of companies beating estimates,” can I just remind you that it took estimates being DRAMATICALLY lowered in order to achieve that goal. In fact, for the end of 2017 estimates are more than $10 LOWER than where they began. After all, we live in a society where “everyone gets a trophy”, right?"

"Peak PEG" - The S&P Has Never, Ever Been This Expensive

"...only the Bond Bubble can justify the Equity Bubble. Meta-markets, where bubbles justify one another. A drunken man who drives home another drunken man. Prosaically, Equities' valuations are not as insane as bond valuations, but that does not make them cheap."

Weekend Reading: Losing Faith?

"With President Trump embroiled in one entanglement after another and constrained by a deeply partisan legislature, the ability of the Administration to pass legislative agenda seems to be fading... along with investor 'faith' that they will."

Weekend Reading: On A Cliff's Edge

"...Unfortunately, in the financial markets, irrationality historically prevails and very few investors survive the fall..."