John Williams

Traders "Swoop" On Stocks, Oil Rises For 8th Day But Bonds Still Don't Buy It

S&P futures are unchanged and Asian stocks closed mixed, however European stocks rebounded for first time this week, led by auto stocks after Daimler’s quarterly profit, as a break in alarming political news prompted traders to "swoop" - as Reuters puts it - on equities, cooling a safe-haven rally that saw the yen and gold at five-month highs and bond yields to drop their lowest this year.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Payrolls; FOMC Minutes; Trump Meets Xi

The key economic releases in the US this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, while several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week. The meeting between Trump and Xi set for Thursday and Friday at Mar-A-Lago will likely attract significant attention.

S&P Futures Fade Overnight Gains As Euro Slides; China Stumbles

Asian shares and oil are lower, European shares are little changed, and S&P futures are fractionally in the red after gaining for most of the overnight session, perhaps troubled by warnings by two Fed presidents who warned that markets and valuations appear frothy, and the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates more times than currently forecast.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the PCE report as well as Personal Income & Spending data on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday.

Americans Will Be The Loser In The Fed's Dangerous Game Of "Chicken"

Here is the real problem with the gap between the Fed and government’s outlook versus reality: the more they push to convince markets of the economy’s strength, the more they set us up for a crisis. When Americans finally wake up and realize the Fed and U.S. government were bluffing all along, there will be no safety net to keep the economy from crashing down.

USDJPY Surges After Brainard Says "Rate Hike Likely Appropriate Soon"

The Fed's oterhwise uberdovish governor Lael Brainard joined the hawkish parade when moments ago she said that “assuming continued progress, it will likely be appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation, continuing on a gradual path" sending the USDJPY surging by over 40 pips to intraday highs.

Key Events In The Coming US

The main focus this week will be on President Trump's speech to Congress and Chair Yellen's speech which is the last before the blackout period. US durable goods, ISM, the BoC rate decision, EZ CPI, UK PMIs and a busy calendar in Australia & Scandinavia also coming up.

Blind Faith Everywhere

Beware of academics bearing models. Knowing prices are wrong and knowing when they are going to correct are two very different things - being able to survive until and through the correction is vital.

The Week's Key Economic And Financial Events

In this holiday-shortened week, attention will be on the US FOMC minutes, housing data and consumer confidence. There will be GDP, PMI and inflation releases across the Euro Area as well as the latest Greek Eurogroup meeting. Look for GDP and public finances data in the UK.