JPMorgan Chase

Here Are The Best Hedges Against A Le Pen Victory

According to BofA, the best ways to hedge increased risks of a potential Eurosceptic win in the upcoming French election is favouring 10y peripheral spread wideners in Spain vs France, longs in 5y5y Germany and 5y Dutch sovereign CDS. In the options space, the banks recommends going long vol with a hybrid 6m10y strangle. In inflation, it likes 5y5y French CPI v HICP widener and a long 30y OATei breakeven vs inflation swap.

Extreme Vetting, But Not For Banks

Donald Trump, the man who positioned himself as the common man's shield against Wall Street, signed a series of orders today calling for reviews or rollbacks of financial regulations. He did so after meeting with some friendly helpers...

Nomi Prins On The Goldmanization Of President Trump

In his Inaugural Address, having nominated the wealthiest cabinet in American history, he proclaimed, “For too long, a small group in our nation's capital has reaped the rewards of government.”  Under Trump, an even smaller group will flourish -- in particular, a cadre of former Goldman Sachs executives. To put the matter bluntly, two of them (along with the Federal Reserve) are likely to control our economy and financial system in the years to come.

What Is This "Crisis" Of Modernity?

We have an economic crisis - centered on the persistent elusiveness of real growth, rather than just monetized debt masquerading as 'growth'; and a political crisis - in which even ‘Davos man’, it seems, according to their own World Economic Forum polls, is anxiously losing his faith in 'the system' itself.

Why Davos CEOs Think They Have Control Over Trump

While President Trump chose not to attend the elite extravaganza in Davos last week, choosing instead to lambast the great-est and good-est of the world's executives in their crony capitalist safe space, the cognitively dissonant CEOs reassured each other by saying 'ignore the tweets', confident that "if [Trump] knows the facts, he’ll respond according to the facts." It depends whose 'facts' those are, of course.

Frontrunning: January 20

  • How Trump Aims to Broadly Reshape Policy (WSJ)
  • Trump Calls for Unity at Opening Concert as Inaugural Festivities Begin (NYT)
  • Trump Takes the Reins of a Deeply Divided Nation (BBG)
  • Washington braces for anti-Trump protests, New Yorkers march (Reuters)
  • After the Parties, a Protest for the Ages (WSJ)

Frontrunning: January 19

  • Yellen speech bolsters dollar after Trump's mixed messages (Reuters)
  • Draghi Set to Face Questions on ECB Bond Purchases (WSJ)
  • Davos CEOs 'go local' on supply chain in Trump era (Reuters)
  • Oil and Trump: Russians full of optimism (Reuters)
  • Biggest Opposition Party Ready to Topple Swedish Government (BBG)
  • The Mortgage Market’s $1 Trillion Pocket of Worry (WSJ)