Kazakhstan

Frontrunning: December 7

  • Futures rise for third day in a row (Reuters); Banks Lead Stock Rally as Bonds Gain With Hopes Pinned on Draghi (BBG)
  • Monte dei Paschi bolsters European stocks, ECB looms (Reuters)
  • Finding Risk in All the Wrong Places as Trump Era Begins (BBG)
  • Goldman Tells Stock Pickers to Rejoice as Correlations Decline (BBG)
  • Trump’s ‘Wall’ at Mexico Border Vanishing as GOP Lawmakers Bolt (BBG)

OPEC Scrambles To Salvage Oil Deal In 11th Hour As Tensions Spike

One day after Saudi Arabia raised the prospect that Wednesday's OPEC summit in Vienna may conclude without a deal (which also was spun as optimistic as the market would still revert to "equilibrium", however it was unclear at what price), OPEC members tried on Monday to rescue a deal to limit oil output as tensions grew among the producer group and non-OPEC member Russia.

China Escalates Tensions In Asia's Water Wars

The race to appropriate water resources in Asia is straining agriculture and fisheries, damaging ecosystems, and fostering dangerous distrust and discord across the region. It must be brought to an end.

All Aboard The Post-TPP World

Whatever the contours of Trump’s China/Asia foreign policy, Eurasian integration will proceed unabated. TPP – or NATO on trade, the Asian version - is just a scalp in a long and winding road. And on the South China Sea, dialogue is slowly edging out the confrontation fomented throughout the Obama administration.

In Last Minute Twist OPEC Demands Big Production Cuts From Non-OPEC Members; Russia Balks

Under pressure from OPEC to make significant output cuts, Russia balked saying it was ready to freeze oil production at current levels, which it aruged is the equivalent of a cut: "According to our plans, (Russia's) oil output is going up next year. If we keep production at the current level we are making our contribution, for us that essentially means a cut of 200,000-300,000 barrels per day (in 2017)" energy minister Novak said.

Major Foreign Policy Shift: Turkey Abandoning EU For SCO

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on November 20 that Turkey did not need to join the European Union "at all costs." Instead, it could become part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), or Shanghai Pact.

Russian Mig-29 Crashes Near Aircraft Carrier Off Syrian Coast

With the Russian Syrian naval flotilla having arrived off the coast of Syria, and set to launch airborne missions against ISIS targets in Syria with the support of strategic Russian Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers, an unexpected twist took place when a Russian fighter jet crashed in the Mediterranean Sea shortly after launching from its aircraft carrier near the coast of Syria Sunday, Fox News reports citing two US officials.

This Is No "New Cold War"; It's Far Worse Than That

Only M.A.D. avoided the Cold War becoming a hot war. But M.A.D. is not just a physical reality but equally importantly a mutually-shared belief-system, a belief-system that becomes no longer operative if one of the two sides switches to believe that a way exists actually to win a nuclear war - in other words, to believe that conquest of a nuclear power by another nuclear power is a real possibility.

Goldman Warns Oil Headed To Low $40 On "Declining Probability Of OPEC Deal"

Overnight, Goldman's Damien Courvalin released another note that will make oil bulls nervous, in which he reiterated his base case that "growing discord between OPEC producers suggests a declining probability of reaching a deal on November 30" and predicted that a "weakening oil fundamentals warrant oil prices in the low US$40s/bbl in our view if OPEC is unable to deliver a convincing agreement."

"Dear Democrats, Doesn't Clinton Embarrass You?"

Conflict of interest is the Clinton business model. And political influence is the product. That’s how Hillary and Bill managed to gross more than a Rolling Stones tour by delivering speeches. Looking at how successful Mrs. Clinton and her husband were in monetizing her position as secretary of state, why would any voter, of any party, want to see how much revenue she can squeeze from the Oval Office?