"Regional buyers need a lot of conviction to step in front of this speeding train [especially] in context of a rapidly changing economic environment."
We warned on Friday, after last week's China rout, that the market is getting ahead of itself with its expectation of a RRR-cut by China as large as 100 bps. "The risk is that there isn't one." We were spot on, because not only was there no RRR cut, but Chinese stocks plunged, with the composite tumbling as much a 9% at one point, the most since 1996 when it dropped 9.4% in a single session. The session, as profile overnight was brutal, with about 2000 stocks trading by the -10% limit down, and other markets not doing any better: CSI 300 -8.8%, ChiNext -8.1%, Shenzhen Composite -7.7%. This was the biggest Chinese rout since 2007.
Last week, in the global currency war’s latest escalation, Kazakhstan instituted a free float for the tenge causing the currency to immediately plunge by some 25%. The rationale behind the move was clear enough. What might not be as clear is how recent events in developing economy FX markets stem from a seismic shift we began discussing late last year - namely, the death of the petrodollar system which has served to underwrite decades of dollar dominance and was, until recently, a fixture of the post-war global economic order.
OPEC next gathers December 4 in Vienna, just over a year since Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi announced at the previous OPEC winter meeting the Saudi decision to let the oil market determine oil prices rather than to continue Saudi Arabia’s role of guarantor of $100+/bbl oil. Despite the intense financial and economic pain this decision has inflicted on Saudi Arabia, its fellow OPEC members, and other oil producers, the Saudis have given no indication they plan to alter course. Given the Saudi decision’s positive impact on their and their Gulf Arab allies’ relative position within OPEC and its negative impact on OPEC outsiders, it is possible, perhaps even likely, the Saudis will face an OPEC outsider revolt at the December 4 OPEC meeting.. with three possible outcomes - Reconociliation, Separation, or Divorce.
- $1 trillion in Emerging Market outflows in the past 13 months (FT)
- German lawmakers back third Greek bailout (Reuters)
- Dutch government faces test in "junkie" Greece debate (Reuters)
- China c.bank offers selected banks medium term lending facility (Reuters)
- Another "expert network" busted: Promontory settles over StanChart probe (FT)
- Angola to Ship Most Crude in Four Years to Meet Asian Demand (BBG)
- Hackers dump data online from cheating website Ashley Madison (Reuters)
- Yuan’s Devaluation Brings Losses for Some (WSJ)
China Stocks Crash, More Than Half Of Market Halted Limit Down; PBOC Loss Of Control Spooks Global AssetsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/18/2015 08:09 -0400
Just hours after the PBOC announced a modestly "revalued" fixing in the CNY, which curiously led to weaker trading in the onshore Yuan for most of the day before a forceful last minute intervention by the central bank pushed it back down to 6.39 it was the local stock market spinning plate - which had been relatively stable during the entire FX devaluation process - that China lost control over, and after 7 days of margin debt increases the Shanghai Composite plunged by 6.2% in late trade, tumbling 245 points to 3748, just 240 points above its recent trough on July 8, a closing level some 27% off its June peak.
While the rest of the world was paying attention to the sad conclusion of the Greek tragedy now in its third bailout season, the US was focused on a another tragedy playing out in the nation's heartland when in the latest mass shooting on US soil, 4 marines were killed when a gunman, since identified at Mohammod Youssuf Abdulazeez, 24, a naturalized citizen born in Kuwait, opened fire first at a military recruiting center and then at a Naval Reserve Center in Chattanooga, Tennessee in what officials have called a "brazen, brutal act of domestic terrorism."
While slightly later than expected, a comprehensive deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program has now been reached. As Reuters reports, the agreement will be greeted with alarm in several quarters, both in Washington and Tehran and internationally too, and could yet unravel. Internationally, the deal will accelerate unease in some Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, but it is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who remains the fiercest public critic and has issued a warning that the accord will "inevitably lead to a nuclear war." The deal profoundly changes the balance of power in the region, but averts the conflict that was likely otherwise, but as ECStrat notes, Iran offers exceptional investment opportunities, but the near term impact will be to continue oil’s decline back to its lows, potentially taking energy stocks with it.
As the Muslim world reflected during the height of Friday's Ramadan prayers, ISIS was busy.
On Monday, Saudi Arabia celebrated the beheading of its 100th prisoner this year. The story was nowhere to be seen on Arab media despite the story's circulation on wire services. Even international media was relatively mute about this milestone compared to what it might have been if it had concerned a different country. How does a story like this go unnoticed? Today's release of the WikiLeaks "Saudi Cables" from the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs show how it's done.
"When I left the military, I started noticing all the other ways in which the government turned the Constitution into a punchline. And that practice has only accelerated. The American Revolution itself was predicated on the inequity of taxation without representation. Are your interests represented when they buy bombs and body scanners? Mine certainly aren’t. Yet people who define patriotism by the frequency and rapidity of their flag-waving think that we all have some collective duty to ignorantly believe whatever we’re told by the government. I disagree."
For the first time since the Cold War, the US is set to store heavy military equipment in Eastern Europe in a stepped up effort to deter 'Russian aggression.' While this marks a very meaningful escalation in the standoff between Moscow and the US, one former NATO commander was quick to point out that "nothing is as good as troops stationed full time on the ground."
Are we QE'd out??? It was supposed to be about the quality of growth,not helping the oligarchy protect their collective arses