Kuwait

Kuwait Oil Workers Strike Over; Oil Tumbles

The catalyst that moved oil prices higher over the past two days, and which had overriden the "bad news" from the Doha talks failure, was the Kuwait oil workers strike announced over the weekend and which resulted in up to 1.6mmb/d in production being taken offline. As of moments ago, however, according to Kuwait's Aljarida press website, the strike is now over.

Oil Surges As Dollar Tumbles To June Lows; Financial Conditions "Easiest" Since Last Summer

Whether or not there was a secret "Shanghai Accord" to push the dollar lower, the outcome has been clear: moments ago, the USD as measured by the Bloomberg Dollar spot index just dropped to the lowest level since June 22, long before the Fed commenced its rate hikes, indicating that the market is, at least for now, convinced that the Fed is "one and done" and that Eric Rosengren's warning that rate hikes will accelerate from here is nothing but a hollow threat.

S&P To Open Above 2,100, Eyes All Time High As Global Markets Surge, Crude Rises Above $40

If asking traders where stocks and oil would be trading one day after a weekend in which the Doha OPEC meeting resulted in a spectacular failure, few if any would have said the S&P would be over 2,100, WTI would be back over $40 and the VIX would be about to drop to 12 and yet that is precisely where the the S&P500 is set to open today, hitting Goldman's year end target 8 months early, and oblivious of the latest batch of poor earnings news, this time from Intel and Netflix, both of which are sharply lower. We expect that after taking out any 2,100 stops, the S&P will then make a solid effort to take out all time highs, now just over 1% away.

Crude Crumbles Back Into Red As Kuwait Output Returns To Normal

It appears the "excuse" for today's panic-buying spree in crude - a refineries strike in Kuwait affecting supply - has just been demolished: KUWAIT OIL CO. SAYS OUTPUT FROM NORTHERN FIELDS BACK TO NORMAL. Now what excuse will there be? Especially as Venezuela confirms production will not slow.

Frontrunning: April 18

  • Crude's Losses Drag Ruble, Loonie Lower; Stocks Pare Their Drop (BBG)
  • Grand Oil Bargain Is Victim of Saudi Arabia's Iran Fixation (BBG)
  • Both Parties’ Presidential Front-Runners Increasingly Unpopular (WSJ)
  • It's up to you, New York: state takes center stage in election campaign (Reuters)
  • Rousseff Hangs by a Thread After Losing Impeachment Vote (BBG)
  • China March home prices rise at fastest rate in two years, top cities boom (Reuters)

Analysts Respond To Doha Meeting Failure: "Blow To Sentiment"

Failure to proceed with crude output freeze plan seen as a "serious blow" to oil-market sentiment by Energy Aspects; Barclays expects mounting tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran to boost volatility. Separately, Kuwait oil workers strike viewed as price-supportive.  Here, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a summary of what analysts have said so far on meeting’s outcome as well as comments on Kuwait:

 

Futures Wipe Out Most Overnight Losses Following Dramatic Rebound In Crude

Following yesterday's OPEC "production freeze" meeting in Doha which ended in total failure, where in a seemingly last minute change of heart Saudi Arabia and specifically its deputy crown prince bin Salman revised the terms of the agreement demanding Iran participate in the freeze after all knowing well it won't, oil crashed and with it so did the strategy of jawboning for the past 2 months had been exposed for what it was: a desperate attempt to keep oil prices stable and "crush shorts" while global demand slowly picked up.  And whether it is central banks, or chronic BTFDers, just 12 hours after oil opened for trading with a loud crash, the commodity has nearly wiped out all losses, and both brent and WTI were down barely 2%, leading to both European stocks and US equity futures virtually unchanged on the session. 

Saudi King And Princes Blackmail The U.S. Government: What Happens Next

Saudi Arabia appears to be blackmailing the US, saying it would sell off American assets worth a 12-digit figure sum in dollars if Congress passes a bill allowing the Saudi Government to be held responsible for the 9/11 terrorist attacks.” To say that this threat from the Sauds is just “another sign of the escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United States” seems like saying that a neighbor’s threat to bomb your house would constitute just “another sign of escalating tensions” between you and your neighbor.

Goldman On Doha: "Bearish For Prices ", Expect "High Price Volatility"; Saudi Oil Production May Jump

"we view this outcome as bearish for oil prices given consensus expectations for a “soft guidance” freeze at January production levels"... "We therefore view risks to our Saudi forecast as skewed to the upside: it is at the guidance provided by the deputy crown prince in his latest interview with Bloomberg this week, with such volumes presented as contingent on a deal to freeze production being reached."

"If No Agreement, Expect A Sharp Selloff" - All You Need To Know About Doha

Sunday’s producer meeting is all about nothing no matter what agreement might be forged. At best, the agreement will be, as Russia’s energy minister has stated, a gentlemen’s affair, with no binding commitments, no concrete next steps beyond having a review meeting, and no procedure for moving to production cuts.

Oil Rally Fizzles After OPEC Sees Lower Global Demand; BofA Says "Reduce Risk Into Doha"

OPEC came out this morning with a warning on perhaps the biggest wildcard of all: global demand for oil, which OPEC now declining. The now defunct cartel sees 2016 demand growth ~1.2m b/d vs previous estimate of 1.25m b/d.  "Current negative factors seem to outweigh positive ones and possibly imply downward revisions in oil demand growth, should existing signs persist going forward," the organization’s Vienna-based secretariat said in its monthly market report. "Economic developments in Latin America and China are of concern."