Kuwait
It Wasn't Only China: Here Is What Else Is Crashing Overnight
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/09/2014 07:15 -0500- Abu Dhabi
- Aussie
- Bond
- Carry Trade
- CDS
- China
- Copper
- Crude
- Equity Markets
- Eurozone
- Exxon
- fixed
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Hyperinflation
- Italy
- Kuwait
- Mexico
- New Normal
- NFIB
- Nikkei
- NYMEX
- OPEC
- Portugal
- Precious Metals
- Price Action
- RANSquawk
- Reality
- recovery
- Reuters
- Saudi Arabia
- SocGen
- Turkey
- Ukraine
- Volatility
- Wholesale Inventories
It wasn't just China's long overdue crash last night. In addition to the Shanghai Composite suffering its biggest plunge since August 2009, there has been a sharp slide in the USDJPY which has broken its uptrend to +∞ (and hyperinflation), and around the time Chinese gamblers were panicking, the FX pair tumbled under 120, although since then the 120 tractor beam has been activated. Elsewhere, the Athens stock exchange is also crashing by over 10% this morning on the heels of news that the Greek government has accelerated the process to elect the next president and possibly, a rerun of the drama from the summer of 2012 when the Eurozone was hanging by a thread when Tsipras almost won the presidential vote and killed the world's most artificial and insolvent monetary union. And finally, the crude plunge appears to have finally caught up with ground zero, with ADX General Index in Abu Dhabi plunging 3.5%, also poised for the biggest drop since 2009. In fact the only thing that isn't crashing (at least not this moment), is Brent, which did drop to new 5 year lows earlier under $66, but has since staged a feeble rebound.
Oil Prices Collapse To New Cycle Lows, Canada Heavy Tumbles Under $50
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/08/2014 08:37 -0500The crude carnage continued overnight with oil prices across the entire complex crashing through support to new cycle lows. Despite recent strategic reservce demand in China, the world's oil glut continues as global growth expectations plunge leaving WTI trading as low as $64.10, Brent $66.77 (narrowing the Brent-WTI spread to $2.68 from $3.23 on Friday), and most stunning of all, Canada Heavy as low as $49.24. Speculators and money managers appear to be BTFD as they increased net long positions last week (amid the price slump) but comments from Kuwait Petroleum's CEO and Iran officials suggest 'lower for longer' on prices will be the norm. As Morgan Stanley notes, "with OPEC on the sidelines, oil prices face their greatest threat since 2009 and appear on track for an extremely volatile 2015"
China Surges, Japan Closes Green On Horrible Econ Data; Oil Tumbles To Fresh 5 Year Lows
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/08/2014 07:09 -0500- BIS
- Bloomberg News
- BOE
- Bond
- China
- Consumer Confidence
- Copper
- CPI
- Crude
- default
- Eurozone
- Fitch
- fixed
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Housing Starts
- Italy
- Japan
- Jim Reid
- Kuwait
- Market Conditions
- Michigan
- Middle East
- Money Supply
- Morgan Stanley
- New Normal
- Nikkei
- OPEC
- Portugal
- Price Action
- RANSquawk
- Recession
- Trade Balance
- Unemployment
- University Of Michigan
- Wholesale Inventories
- Yuan
Without doubt, the most memorable line from the latest quarterly report by the BIS, one which shows how shocked even the central banks' central bank is with how perverted and broken the "market" has become is the following: "The highly abnormal is becoming uncomfortably normal.... There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine." Overnight, "markets" did all in their (central banks') power to justify the BIS' amazement, when first the Nikkei closed green following another shocker of Japanese econ data, when it was revealed that the quadruple-dip recession was even worse than expected, and then the Shanghai composite soaring over 3000 or up 2.8% for the session, following news of the worst trade data - whether completely fabricated or not - out of China in over half a year.
Here Is Oil's Next Leg Down
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/04/2014 17:02 -0500Perhaps those sub-$50 Bakken prices tell us pretty much where global prices are ahead. And then we’ll take it from there. With 1.8 million barrels “that nobody needs” added to the shale industries growth intentions, where can prices go but down, unless someone starts a big war somewhere? Yesterday’s news that US new oil and gas well permits were off 40% last month may signal where the future of shale is really located. But oil is a field that knows a lot of inertia, long term contracts, future contracts, so changes come with a time lag. It’s also a field increasingly inhabited by desperate producers and government leaders, who wake up screaming in the middle of the night from dreaming about their heads impaled on stakes along desert roads.
Today's Market-Boosting Disappointing Economic News Brought To Your Courtesy Of Euroarea's Service PMIs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/03/2014 07:11 -0500Those wondering why European stocks are higher but off earlier highs, the answer is simple: the latest Service ISM was bad but it wasn't a complete disaster. And while RanSquawk notes that "the particularly disappointing slew of Eurozone Service PMI’s from France and Spain capped any potential upside seen across the European indices" stocks are clearly green on hopes Europe's ongoing economic devastation accelerates enough for the ECB to finally start buying Stoxx 600 and various other penny stocks. This is what happened, in Goldman's words: the November Euro area final composite PMI came in at 51.1, 0.3pt below the flash (and Consensus) estimate. Relative to October, the composite PMI fell by 0.9pt. The weaker final composite PMI was driven by flash/final downward revisions to the German manufacturing PMI and the French services PMI. Today’s data also showed some improvement in the Italian services PMI, and a deterioration in its Spanish counterpart.
'We Are Entering A New Oil Normal"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/30/2014 13:14 -0500- Bank of America
- Bank of America
- Barclays
- Bond
- China
- Citigroup
- Creditors
- Crude
- Crude Oil
- Ethan Harris
- Evans-Pritchard
- Exxon
- fixed
- Ford
- Foreign Policy magazine
- India
- International Energy Agency
- Iran
- Iraq
- Kuwait
- Market Share
- Merrill
- Merrill Lynch
- Mexico
- Middle East
- national security
- Natural Gas
- OPEC
- Purchasing Power
- Reality
- Renaissance
- Reuters
- Risk Premium
- Saudi Arabia
- Sovereigns
- The Economist
- Trade Deficit
- Turkey
- White House
The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer. While we highlighted the risk of a near-term decline in the oil price in our July newsletter, we failed to adjust our portfolio sufficiently to reflect such a scenario. This month we identify the major implications of our revised energy thesis. The reason oil prices started sliding in June can be explained by record growth in US production, sputtering demand from Europe and China, and an unwind of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. The world oil market, which consumes 92 million barrels a day, currently has one million barrels more than it needs.... Large energy companies are sitting on a great deal of cash which cushions the blow from a weak pricing environment in the short-term. It is still important to keep in mind, however, that most big oil projects have been planned around the notion that oil would stay above $100, which no longer seems likely.
"There Will Be Blood": Petrodollar Death Means A Liquidity And Oil-Exporting Crisis On Deck
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/27/2014 22:50 -0500- BATS
- Bear Market
- Bond
- Borrowing Costs
- Brazil
- Budget Deficit
- Capital Markets
- Central Banks
- China
- Crude
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- Iran
- Iraq
- Kazakhstan
- Kuwait
- LatAm
- Mexico
- Middle East
- Monetary Policy
- NASDAQ
- None
- OPEC
- ratings
- Renminbi
- Reserve Currency
- Reuters
- Saudi Arabia
- Sigma X
- Sigma X
Recently we posted the following article commenting on the impact of USD appreciation and dollar circulation among oil exporters, as well as how the collapsing price of oil is set to reverberate across the entire oil-exporting world, where sticky high oil prices were a key reason for social stability. Following today's shocking OPEC announcement and the epic collapse in crude prices, it is time to repost it now that everyone is desperate to become a bear market oil expert, if only on Twitter...
Oil Prices Collapse After OPEC Keeps Oil Production Unchanged - Live Conference Feed
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/27/2014 09:58 -0500But, but, but... all the clever talking heads said they wil have to cut...
*OPEC KEEPS OIL PRODUCTION TARGET UNCHANGED AT 30M B/D: DELEGATE
WTI ($70 handle) and Brent Crude (under $75 for first time sicne Sept 2010) are collapsing... as will US Shale oil company stocks and bonds (and thus all of high yield credit) tomorrow. The Saudis are "very happy" with the decision, Venzuela 'stormed out, red faced, furious.' Commentary from various OPEC members appears focused on the need for non-OPEC (cough US Shale cough) nations to "share the burden" and cut production (just as the Saudis warned yesterday).
OPEC's Prisoner's Dilemma
Submitted by Marc To Market on 11/26/2014 09:14 -0500Is the oil cartel impotent? Is the price of oil going to fall further? What to expect from tomorrow's OPEC meeting.
Frontrunning: November 13
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/13/2014 07:59 -0500- American Express
- Apple
- Australia
- Bank of America
- Bank of America
- Bank of England
- Barack Obama
- Barclays
- Beazer
- Botox
- Capital One
- Carlyle
- Central Banks
- China
- Citigroup
- Comcast
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- Copper
- Credit Suisse
- CSCO
- Deutsche Bank
- European Central Bank
- Federal Reserve
- Germany
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- GOOG
- JPMorgan Chase
- Kuwait
- Lazard
- MagnaChip
- Market Share
- Morgan Stanley
- Newspaper
- Obama Administration
- Ohio
- OPEC
- Paid Content
- PIMCO
- President Obama
- Private Equity
- Raymond James
- Reuters
- Royal Bank of Scotland
- State Street
- SWIFT
- Switzerland
- Time Warner
- Total Return Fund
- Turkey
- Ukraine
- United Kingdom
- Wells Fargo
- Yen
- Moar central banks! Asian Stocks Rise Amid Stimulus Speculation; Topix Jumps (BBG)
- Syria rebels in south emerge as West's last hope as moderates crushed elsewhere (Reuters)
- Bufett's Berkshire to Buy Duracell Business From Procter & Gamble in $3B Deal (AP)
- Weak Demand, Real-Estate Slump Signal Headwinds for China (WSJ)
- China Slowdown Deepens as Leaders Said to Mull Cutting Target (BBG)
- Saudis Reject Talk of OPEC Market Share War as Oil Slides (BBG)
- Oil Tankers Stream Toward China as Price Drop Sparks Boom (BBG)
Ron Paul Says: Watch The Petrodollar
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/06/2014 16:30 -0500"The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better." - Ron Paul
How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/03/2014 23:42 -0500The Petrodollar, long serving as the US leverage to encourage and facilitate USD recycling, and a steady reinvestment in US-denominated assets by the Oil exporting nations, and thus a means to steadily increase the nominal price of all USD-priced assets, just drove itself into irrelevance. A consequence of this year's dramatic drop in oil prices, the shift is likely to cause global market liquidity to fall. This decline follows years of windfalls for oil exporters such as Russia, Angola, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Much of that money found its way into financial markets, helping to boost asset prices and keep the cost of borrowing down, through so-called petrodollar recycling. But no more: "this year the oil producers will effectively import capital amounting to $7.6 billion.
Are We Ready For The Fall Of Baghdad?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/26/2014 21:15 -0500"This is simple payback for Washington's threats, banking fines and penalties against institutions and nations de jure that fail to march to the US tune of dictating trade and financial arrangements. The world is now ganging up on the United States because Washington has terrorized smaller nations around the world for decades as the big bully on the block."
Eight Pieces Of Our Oil Price Predicament
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/26/2014 13:04 -0500A person might think that oil prices would be fairly stable. Prices would set themselves at a level that would be high enough for the majority of producers, so that in total producers would provide enough–but not too much–oil for the world economy. The prices would be fairly affordable for consumers. And economies around the world would grow robustly with these oil supplies, plus other energy supplies. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to work that way recently. Here are at least a few of the issues involved.
Meanwhile, This Is Who Is Quietly Buying All The Cheap Oil
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/22/2014 20:30 -0500With the US Shale Oil industry up in arms, Venezuela screaming, and Russia awkwardly quiet (as the Ruble slides with the falling oil price stabilizing domestic inflows), the 'secret' Saudi-US oil deal that pressured prices for crude down to $80 (18-month lows today) has 'hurt' a lot of the world's producer nations. However, as Bloomberg reports, there is one nation that is very grateful. The number of supertankers sailing toward China’s ports surged to a nine-month high as over 80 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) - the industry’s biggest ships - sail toward the Asian country’s ports. At an average of 2 million barrels each, the 160 million barrels will help refill China's 727 million barrel SPR which it started in 2012.



