Kyle Bass

Capitalist Exploits's picture

Stability vs Opportunity





Stability is a myth yet it’s what we humans strive for...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

If You Are A US Investor Who Is Bullish Japan, Look Away





Day after day, well-dressed talking heads are paraded on business media and proclaim how cheap Japan is, how Abenomics will work (he promise... if it doesn't we'll have to question everything we believe in), how GDP is backward-looking (so ignore it... and every other economic indicator), and how being long Japanese stocks (of course, hedged back to dollars because you don't want to take the currency risk that Abe is creating) is a "no brainer." The problem with that strategy is... in 2014, the JPY-hedged Japanese stock market investor in the US has not had a daily close in the green year-to-date and is down over 5% for the year... but it gets worse.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Here We Go Again: Demand For Subprime Debt Is "Out Of Control"





As Kyle Bass once eloquently noted, the brevity of financial memory is about two years; and nowhere is that more clear than in the explosive resurgence of demand for new subprime-mortgage-backed products. As Scotsman Guide reports, some subprime lenders are reporting strong investor appetite for the once-reviled mortgage products (for borrowers with credit scores as low as 500 and with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios as high as 50 percent). "It's out of control; it seems like there’s 10 times the amount of demand to buy this paper as there are borrowers that want the loans," said one lender. As Bass may have also said "proceed with caution."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Like Japan's Inevitable Apocalypse





Kuroda has fired the shot that looks likely to trigger the next phase of the crazy monetary experiment we’ve all been living in for the last five years. Unfortunately, the next phase is where things start to get nasty. Just because equity markets cheered the latest sugar rush he guaranteed them should not make smart investors lower their guard — quite the opposite, in fact. Colonel Kuroda has gone up-country into the Heart of Darkness, and all we can do is await the Apocalypse now.

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

What a Disaster This Investment Has Been





Though, if history is anything to go by, it offers a potential for outsized returns

 
Tyler Durden's picture

USDJPY Tops 114 (+6 Handles) Sending Japanese Stocks Up 2000 Points Since FOMC





The trend is your friend... until it becomes a Venezuelan hyperinflation melt-up...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Only A Few More QEs To Go Until Argentina





Because nothing says economic strength like nominal equity market gains... as Kyle Bass warned in the past - beware the 'nominal' stock market cheerleaders.

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

Is China the Next Sub-Prime Event?





Following investors who came to prominence together with Kyle Bass after shorting the sub-prime market in 2007

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How Japanese Hyperinflation Starts (In 1 Chart)





The Japanese Yen's real effective exchange rate (REER) has collapsed to the weakest since 1982, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Simply put, REER is a trade-weighted measure of Yen strength (or weakness) against, in this case, 59 trading partners; and as the nation posts an unprecedented 27th straight month of trade deficits, Bloomberg reports MUFJ indicates "a structural shift" has taken place. As MUFJ chief FX strategist warns, "If the trade deficit doesn’t noticeably narrow from here, the yen’s real effective rate could fall to levels never seen before," and, ominously, "from a supply and demand perspective, yen selling for foreign currency by Japanese importers will just continue endlessly." And Japan becomes Venezuela...

 
George Washington's picture

Top Financial Experts Say World War 3 Is Coming … Unless We Stop It





Nouriel Roubini, Kyle Bass, Hugo Salinas Price, Charles Nenner, James Dines, Jim Rogers, David Stockman, Marc Faber, Jim Rickards, Paul Craig Roberts, Martin Armstrong, Larry Edelson, Gerald Celente and Others Warn of Wider War

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Pension Money Already Flowing In To Prop Up Japan's Stocks





With almost metronomic regularity, Japan will gush forth a headline proclaiming the ever-closer time when all the nation's retirees savings will be greatly rotated to the stock market and away from the nation's largest bond market in the world. This week was no exception; however, as Nikkei Asian Review reports, it appears the "all-talk" has turned to action...The Government Pension Investment Fund and other public pensions sold about 1.8 trillion yen ($17.4 billion) more in Japanese government bonds than they bought in the first three months of the year, fueling speculation that the GPIF may be rebalancing its portfolio sooner than expected. It seems rotating away from government bonds (which the GPIF has been worried about since 2011) into junk bonds and junk stocks is a far better use of 'wealth' - we can only imagine the GPIF risk models just got switch to '11'. As we explained last year, Japan's Plan B is not only not a panacea, but it is a House of Bonds Cards that would not survive an even modest gust of wind, and an even more modest contemplation into its true internal dynamics. We would urge Messrs Abe and Kuroda to come up with a fall back plan to the fall back plan before it, once again, becomes too late.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Steve Liesman: "Debt Is The Bridge From Working Hard To Playing Hard In America"





"There is a debt problem in America..." warns Lynette Khalfani-Coz (askthemoneycoach.com) in this brief CNBC interview, expanding in the huge debt loads from mortgaging cars to student debt that Americans soak up every day in ever greater amounts. And then Steve Liesman rolls in "debt is always pointed out as a negative thing, when in fact debt is the great bridge between working hard and playing hard in this country." Then Liesman really hangs himself, "this country has been built on consumer debt," he proudly states (as if it was some badge of honor) adding carefully that "too much of it is negative thing." - well Mr Liesman... one look at the current debt load might suggest that American consumers built that 'bridge to playing-hard' just a little too far. As Khalfani-Cox admirably retorts, "excessive debt levels are simply unsustainable... It is not the job of the consumer to play the role of financial hercules... why should we have to prop up the US economy?"

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Kyle Bass On China's "Contraction" And "The Fed's Worst Nightmare"





With the Fed tapering and both China “I don't think the markets are discounting what’s really happening in China,” and Japan’s currencies likely to weaken, the net impact on the U.S. will be deflationary, Kyle Bass warned in a recent presentation. That trend will be accelerated by the improvement in the balance of trade for the U.S., which had its current account deficit shrink due to increased hydrocarbon production. Bass warns, the crucial moment will come when the U.S. reports a sub-6% unemployment rate, meeting the target it has set for normalizing its monetary policy by ending QE and raising rates. He predicted that will come in July. That will be the Fed’s “worst nightmare,” he said. Raising rates would stifle growth and recreate unemployment problems, which would be disastrous politically, according to Bass.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Echoes Of 1937 In The Current Economic Cycle





It is not too early to ask how the present US business cycle expansion, already more than five years old, will end. The history of the last great US monetary experiment in “quantitative easing” (QE) from 1934-7 suggests that the end could be violent. Autumn 1937 featured one of the largest New York stock market crashes ever accompanied by the descent of the US economy into the notorious Roosevelt Recession. As we noted previously - it's never different this time...

 
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