Kyle Bass

The Silver Age Of The Central Banker (Ends Badly)

The Golden Age, per the original Greek myth, was an era of unblemished cooperation and great deeds. The Silver Age, on the other hand, was a pretty miserable time to be alive. Not as warlike as the Bronze Age, and not the war of all against all as in the Iron Age, but the spirit of the age was one of strife and competition. It ends badly. What’s required is seeing the world for what it is, not what we might wish it to be. That’s not easy, whether you’re a central banker or a small investor, but it’s never been more important.

China Fires Stock Regulator, Scrambles To Regain Narrative As Economy, Stock Market Implode

Amid plunging exports and volatile equity markets, China is rushing to reassure the world that Beijing hasn't lost control. Despite promises to curb excess capacity and efforts to convince the world that a much sharper yuan devaluation isn't in the cards, the market is rapidly losing faith. What, we wonder, happens if the engine of global growth and trade isn't able to shore up confidence?

Weekend Reading: The Bull Is Back?

That didn’t take much. After a three-day rally, the media is back into “bullish” mode suggesting the bottom is likely in and by the end of this year, it’s all going to be just fine. Unfortunately, history suggests that after such a long unabated expansion risks are substantially higher than it has been previously. Furthermore, as I have repeated often in these missives, in an economy that is driven primarily based on consumption, and such consumption is already weak, it doesn’t take much to “flip the switch.”

Company Flagged By Kyle Bass As A Ponzi Scheme Was Just Raided By The FBI

After making a strong case over the past 3 months that Texas-based REIT United Development Funding IV is nothing but a Ponzi scheme - a name he has been short -  the stock tumbled, jumped, and then tumbled again. However, after its most recent plunge moments ago which led to its being halted, we doubt it will rebound again. The reason for today's most recent, and surely final crash: an FBI raid of UDF's Texas office.

Kyle Bass Is Dead Wrong About Chinese Banks Says Chinese Bank

As the eyes of the financial world shift towards what may be some very serious problems in China's mammoth banking system, one analysts says fears about an imminent meltdown are overblown. Meanwhile, NPLs just hit their highest level since Q3 of 2006. 

Too Many... Convenient Beliefs

People come to believe whatever they need to believe when they need to believe it. Recent studies of voting patterns confirm the obvious. Zombies vote for higher taxes. Cronies vote for lower taxes. All believe they are voting for matters of principle.

Don't Blame China For Market Insanity... Says China

"The global financial markets have suffered sharp declines lately, with stocks plunging across Europe, Japan and the United States last week. Some players once again tried to link the global rout with China. However, such claims are unwarranted and playing the blame game in the face of challenges is useless."

Is This Debt's Last Rattle?

What we see happening today is the last gasps of a broken system ravished by the very much cancer-like progress of debt. Yes, it took longer than it should have, and than we thought. But that’s pretty much irrelevant, unless you were trying to get rich off of the downfall of your own world. Always a noble goal. There’s one reason for the delay only: central bank hubris. And now the entire shebang is falling to bits. That this would proceed in chaotic ways was always a given. People don’t know where to look first or last, neither central bankers nor investors nor anyone else.

The World's Top Performing Hedge Fund Just Went Record Short, Explains Why

"I spend most of my time, while looking at current prices, thinking about and trying to live six months to one year in the future....  What I can see now is that US growth is slowing, and that the market is likely to price in reduced monetary tightening." ... but... " The future for me is now more uncertain than at any time I can remember"