Larry Kudlow

The New "Hope"

What you think about the market doesn’t matter. What everyone thinks about the market (the consensus) doesn’t matter. What matters is what everyone thinks that everyone thinks about the market, and the way you get ahead of this game is to track the “Missionary statements” of politicians, pundits, and bankers made through the four media microphones where the Common Knowledge of markets is created: The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, Bloomberg, and CNBC. Today the investment hope that has crystalized into an investment theme is the notion that soon, just around the corner now, perhaps as a result of the next mystery-shrouded meeting of the world’s central bankers, perhaps as a result of the U.S. election this November, we will enjoy a coordinated global infrastructure spending boom.

"Godfather" Of Technical Analysis 'Nails' The Correction

In Q1 2007, the so-called "godfather" of technical analysis Ralph Acampora told a 'Goldilocks'-prone Larry Kudlow on CNBC that "I'm bullish, but I don't think I am bullish enough...there's new leadership." That call turned out to be very close to top-ticking the market before it's collapse. Fast-forward nine years and Ralph is back, proclaiming that Yellen has "lit a fire under the stock market... and the correction is over." Trade accordingly...

Fed's Williams: "We Got It Wrong"

"The Fed got it wrong when it predicted a drop in oil prices would be a big boon for the economy. It turned out the world had changed; the US has a lot of jobs connected to the oil industry."

- SF Fed President John Williams

Peter Schiff Exposes The Real Problem Facing The Fed

The real problem for the Fed will be how foolish it will look if it does raise by 25 basis points and is then forced by a slowing economy to lower rates back to zero soon after liftoff. At that point, the markets should finally understand that the Fed is powerless to get out of the stimulus trap it has created. But it looks like the Fed would rather look foolish later when it's forced to cut rates, than look foolish now by not raising them at all. The Fed’s rocket to nowhere will hover above the launch pad for a considerable period of time before ultimately falling back down to Earth.

Stephen Schork: The Commodity Crash Is "A Canary In The Coal Mine For The Global Economy"

"This is the big concern because we keep on thinking that lower energy prices are somehow good for the economy. That can't be, because energy prices or commodity prices in general don't drive economic growth. Economic growth drives commodity prices.  So there are a lot of telltales out there that this drop in oil prices, this drop industrial metal prices, this is not good. It's a canary in the coal mine that something is not right in the global economy. And that is a concern for us all."

Violent Moves Continue In European Bond Market; Equity Futures Rebound With Oil At Fresh 2015 Highs

This is how DB summarizes what has been the primary feature of capital markets this week - the huge move in European bond yields: "On April 17th, 10-year Bunds traded below 0.05% intra-day. Two and a half weeks later and yesterday saw bunds close around 1000% higher than those yield lows at 0.516% after rising +6.2bps on the day." Right out of the European open today, the government bond selloff accelerated with the 10Y Bund reaching as wide as 0.595% with the periphery following closely behind when at 9:30am CET sharp, just as the selloff seemed to be getting out of control, it reversed and out of nowhere and a furious buying wave pushed the Bund and most peripheral bonds unchanged or tighter on the day! Strange, to say the least. Also, illiquid.

Saudi Optimism Trumps Storage Concerns, Sends WTI Crude Surging

A constant stream of hyprocrisy from Fed officials (will print moar money if stuff happens), The EIA (storage is getting fuller and fuller, but production will be lower than expected), and Saudi Oil Minister Naimi's idiocy (increased production, demanding non-OPEC cooperation, but optimistic on prices recovering in the short-term) has sent crude asymmetrically rocketing higher... which is now apparently a good thing for US equities.

Even Ed Yardeni Admits "This Is Not Investing... The Markets Are All Rigged"

"This is not investing," exclaims Ed Yardeni in this brief clip, "it is all about central bankers... these markets are all rigged." That is not a criticism he notes, "I just say that factually... I love these central bankers, they've been very good to the stock market." The clip is then followed by a defense of this pumping by central banks, because "we are a 401(k) society." Which apparently ignores the whole "massive inequality gap" issue that is staring America right in the eyes... But for now stocks are up so "shut up and enjoy it" as Larry Kudlow said yesterday.

 

Dollar Regains Most Of Yesterday's "Flash Crash" Losses. Oil Resumes Slide; 10Y Under 2%

If it was the Fed's intention to slow down the relentless surge in the dollar with yesterday's "impatient" removal which blamed the dollar strength on the "strength" in the US economy, it promptly failed after algos and a few carbon-based traders looked at the Atlanta Fed and realized that a 0.3% Q1 GDP print is anything but "strong." As a result the EURUSD, after soaring by nearly 400 pips yesterday in a market reminiscent of a third-world FX pair's liquidity especially following the previously noted USD flash crash, the dollar has recoupped nearly all losses, and the DXY is once again on the way up and eyeing the resistance area of 100.