Lehman

End Of An Era: The Rise And Fall Of The Petrodollar System

"The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better."

Potential Crisis Triggers Continue To Pile Up In 2016

We are a little over half way through 2016 and, at the current rate, it will be a miracle if the year finishes without outright catastrophe in half the nations of the world. Some might call these events “Black Swans,” some might call them completely engineered threats, others might call it all a simple “coincidence” or a tragedy of errors. We stand strictly by the position that most of the dangers we see today have been deliberately escalated, if not strategically implemented. Chaos is NOT the end game, it is only a tool by which the elites gain psychological leverage over the masses so that people willingly give up their rights to self determination and hand more power to the establishment.

Deutsche Bank Loves Helicopter Money: Why "Big Inflation Is Coming... But Will First Require A Crisis"

Helicopter policies are not advocated in ‘a normal world’. They are however almost inevitable in the next recession. "Japan will be the flag bearer of fiscal stimulus.” Which will be sufficient to breath some inflationary spirit into the system. “But this is all febrile and can get over-turned by the slightest change in wind direction,” he said, tentative. “This will be the little inflation before the big helicopter-driven inflation.” But that will first require a crisis.

Could Italy Bring Down The Euro?

"A perfect storm of slow or zero Italian economic growth, low interest rates and politically connected, often corrupt, lending have combined to create a situation where the Italian financial system is in need of a large rescue."

"Soon" And "Really, Really Crazy": Starting Up The Helicopters

The idea (now being pushed by a surprising number of people who ought to know better) that governments should take advantage of historically low interest rates to “invest” with borrowed money has an obvious fatal flaw. That is, accumulating even more negative or zero-rate debt will make it functionally impossible to raise rates to “normal” levels, which is to say levels where markets can once again function as mechanisms for moving savings into productive investments. It’s not a stretch to call this the end of capitalism and the beginning of a new Dark Age.

Frontrunning: July 13

  • Brexit, what Brexit? Shares near 2016 highs (Reuters), Global Stocks Inch Higher (WSJ), Stocks Climb With Copper as Brexit-Induced Volatility Subsides (BBG)
  • Yen under pressure as global stock markets rally (Reuters)
  • Spanish Banks Surge as Fears Subside Over EU Mortgage Ruling (BBG)
  • Pimco Loads Up on Treasuries as Gundlach to Gross Voice Caution (BBG)
  • U.S. Presses China to Be Responsible Power After Sea Ruling (BBG)

The Prospects For Money

"In my view, this new bout of turmoil in financial markets is the prelude to the final demise of government currency..."

Charting The Epic Collapse Of The World's Most Systemically Dangerous Bank

It’s been almost 10 years in the making, but the fate of one of Europe’s most important financial institutions appears to be sealed. But, if the deaths of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were quick and painless, the coming demise of Deutsche Bank has been long, drawn out, and painful.

Russell Napier Reveals The "Only Question That Matters For Global Investors"

Only one question matters for global investors - Where is the helicopter? Helicopter money will be raining from the skies in Japan, the Eurozone, the UK and even in the USA. This form of reflation will likely work and in due course work too much. Few things are binary in investment, but this huge decision to be taken in Berlin is the biggest binary event for investors this analyst has yet come across.

Why Deutsche Bank Expects A Collapse In Monthly Job Growth To Under 60,000

The current labor/productivity gap implies that over the next 4 quarters, the cumulative slowdown in labor input growth should be 4.5 percent. This implies that aggregate hours (which most recently have been expanding at a 1.6 percent annual rate) would average just 0.5 percent (1.6 – 4.5 / 4). Expressed in terms of new jobs, this means that unless firms cut back on employee hours, monthly job creation would average close to 60K next year, a substantial drop from the 200K average of the past 12 months.

First Post-Brexit Bailout Looms As Bank Of England Mulls UK Property Fund 'Measures'

Who could have seen that coming? While many have questioned the "suitability of daily-traded, open-ended property funds that are giving investors access to an illiquid asset," all the time the price is rising, no one wants to rock the boat. However, now that Brexit has rocked the boat, spoiling the party for UK property investors and asset managers alike, it's time for Carney to ride to the tax-payer-funded bailout rescue to ensure Bear Stearns 2.0 does not become Lehman 2.0...