• Vitaliy Katsenelson
    10/03/2015 - 18:26
    Any money manager, whether he is managing separate accounts or a mutual fund, will go through stretches where he looks smarter or dumber than he really is, though his IQ hasn’t actually changed.


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Global Dollar Funding Shortage Intesifies To Worst Level Since 2012

"The dollar fx basis declined further over the past two months. The 5-year dollar fx basis weighted across six DM currencies declined to a new  low for the year and the lowest level since the summer of 2012 during the euro debt crisis. In all, continued monetary policy divergence between the US and the rest of the world as well as retrenchment of EM corporates from dollar funding markets are sustaining an imbalance in funding markets making it likely that the current episode of dollar funding shortage will persist."

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What If Expectations Of Our Central Bankers Are Simply Too High?

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

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72-Year-Old "Mad Dog" Wakabayashi Warns "Reversals Will Be Massive In Scope"

"It's obvious the U.S. is headed for deep deflation, hurt by the strong dollar... The Fed raising rates in this environment is not only ridiculous but harmful. U.S. stocks are plunging, not because of the prospect of a Fed rate hike, but to prevent it."

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Global 'Wealth' Destruction - World Market Cap Plunges $13 Trillion To 2 Year Lows

Since the start of June, global equity markets have lost over $13 trillion. World market capitalization has fallen back below $60 trillion for the first time since February 2014 as it appears the world's central planners' print-or-die policy to create wealth (and in some magical thinking - economic growth) has failed - and failed dramatically. To rub more salt in the wounds of monetray policy mumbo-jumbo, despite endless rate cuts and balance sheet expansion around the world, the last 4 months have seen an 18% collapse - the largest since Lehman.

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Peak Japaganda: Advisers Call For More QE (But Admit Failure Of QE); China's Yuan Hits 3-Week High

Asian markets are bouncing modestly off a weak US session, buoyed by more unbelievable propaganda from Japan. Abe's proclamations that "deflationary mindset" has been shrugged off was met with calls for more stimulus, more debt monetization, and an admission by Etsuro Honda (Abe's closest adviser) that Japan "is not growing positively" and more QE is required despite trillions of Yen in money-printing having failed miserably, warning that raising taxes to pay for extra budget "would be suicidal." Japanese data was a disaster with factory output unexpectedly dropping 0.5% and retail trade missing. Markets are relatively stable at the open as China margin debt drop sto a 9-month low. PBOC strengthened the Yuan fix for the 3rd day in a row to its strongest in 3 weeks.

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Investment Grade Credit Risk Hits 2 Year High (And Why That's A Disaster For Stocks)

Over the past few years three things have 'worked' - Buybacks, Biotechs, and Buying IPOs. Those days are now over...

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Bubble Burst? IPOs Are Having Their Worst Year Since Lehman

IPOs have underperformed the S&P 500 by a stunning 17% year-to-date, extending losses today to 26% year-to-date. With private valuations still sky high in the minds of their VC 'guru' investors, we suspect the fact that this year is now the worst year for IPOs since 2008 will begin to raise doubts about even the most unicorn-y opportunity.

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Dear Martin Shkreli: This Is How You Hike Drug Prices

"In the Twitter-storm furor over Turing’s recent one-drug price gouge attempt, the media has overlooked the reality that Martin Shkreli was created by the system. Shkreli is merely a rogue trying to play the gambit that Valeant has perfected." And there you have it: boost the prices of dozens of drugs in the span of 1-3 years anywhere between 100% and 800% and nobody notices (thank you insurance companies). But hike the price of one drug by 5,500% and suddenly all of America thinks you are satan incarnate.

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Glencore Implodes: Stock Plunges Most Ever, CDS Blow Out To Record Up On Equity Wipeout Fears


Those who listened to our reco to buy Glencore CDS at 170 bps in March 2014 can take the rest of the year off. As of this moment, GLEN Credit Default Swap were pushing on 600 bps, 4 times wider, and on pace to take out the 2011 liquidity crunch highs. After that, it's smooth sailing to all time wides and the start of a self-fulfilling prophecy which leads to the Companys's IG downgrade and the collapse of trillions in derivative notionals as what may be the trading desk of the biggest commodity counterparty quietly goes out of business.

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Biotechs Battered For 7th Straight Day - Longest Losing Streak In 7 Years

Not since October 2008 (cough post-Lehman cough), has The Nasdaq Biotech index dropped for 7 straight days. The 18% close-to-close drop in the last 7 days is the largest since Lehman.

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