Here come the revisionists with new malarkey about the 2008 financial crisis. No less august a forum than the New York Times today carries a front page piece by journeyman financial reporter James Stewart suggesting that Lehman Brothers was solvent; could and should have been bailed out; and that the entire trauma of the financial crisis and Great Recession might have been avoided or substantially mitigated. That is not just meretricious nonsense; its a measure of how thoroughly corrupted public discourse about the fundamental financial and economic realities of the present era has become owing to the cult of central banking. The great error of September 2008 was not in failing to bailout Lehman. It was in providing a $100 billion liquidity hose to Morgan Stanley and an even larger one to Goldman. They too were insolvent. That was the essence of their business model. Fed policies inherently generate runs, and then it stands ready with limitless free money to rescue the gamblers. You can call that pragmatism, if you like. But don’t call it capitalism.
Reports of individuals snapping up near-record numbers of gold and silver coins are coming in from around the world. While individual buyers aren't the dominant players in precious metals, they do make a difference; and their renewed enthusiasm is matched by some recent national trends. There's no guarantee that this buying, encouraging as it seems, is anything more than a blip; but in the aggregate it does seem like a lot of buyers, old and new, are finding current prices to be attractive. That's how bottoms form and new bull markets begin.
Another Conspiracy Theory Becomes Fact: The Fed's "Stealth Bailout" Of Foreign Banks Goes MainstreamSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2014 13:25 -0400
Back in June 2011, Zero Hedge first posted: "Exclusive: The Fed's $600 Billion Stealth Bailout Of Foreign Banks Continues At The Expense Of The Domestic Economy, Or Explaining Where All The QE2 Money Went" Of course, the conformist, counter-contrarian punditry promptly said this was a non-issue and was purely due to some completely irrelevant micro-arbing of a few basis points in FDIC penalty surcharges, which as we explained extensively over the past 3 years, has nothing at all to do with the actual motive of hoarding Fed reserves by offshore (or onshore) banks, and which has everything to do with accumulating billions in "dry powder" reserves to use for risk-purchasing purposes. Fast, or rather slow, forward to today when none other than the WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath debunks yet another "conspiracy theory" and reveals it as "unconspiracy fact" with "Fed Rate Policies Aid Foreign Banks: Lenders Pocket a Spread by Borrowing Cheaply, Parking Funds at Central Bank"
The €64K question is whether the hand off from the Fed to the ECB and BOJ will be smooth enough to avoid a stock market crash between now and the end of 2016. Everything else is semantics
Final Q2 GDP Surges 4.6% Thanks To Profit Definition Change; Personal Consumption Weaker Than ExpectedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/26/2014 09:08 -0400
The good news in the just released final Q2 GDP estimate soared by 4.6%, just as Wall Street expected, which was the biggest quarterly jump since 2011 Q4 2011, driven by gains in business spending, where mandatory forced Obamacare outlays led to a $17.5 billion chained-dollars increase in Healthcare spending to $1815.9 billion. Also helping were corporate profits which rose 8.4% in Q2, the most since Q3 2010, once again courtesy of adjustment in definitions (recall the IVA vs CCAdj change we discussed previously).
When is the U.S. banking system going to crash? We can sum it up in three words. Watch the derivatives. It used to be only four, but now there are five "too big to fail" banks in the United States that each have more than 40 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives.
"In conclusion, this analysis finds little evidence of the permanent structural damage to the economy’s productive potential that many commentators see as the main culprit for the subpar recovery from the Great Recession..." and Surprise... "our model suggests that monetary policy played an important role in cushioning the blow from the financial crisis and in sustaining the recovery, which could have been significantly more disappointing without the aggressive actions undertaken by the Fed."
Do you have a friend who consistently borrows 30% of his income each year, is currently in debt about six times her annual income, and wanted to take advantage of short-term interest rates so that he needs to renegotiate with his banker about once every six years? Well, if Uncle Sam is your friend you do!
"Get To Work Mr. Chinese Chairman": China Set To Fire Its Central Bank Head, Unleash The Liquidity FloodgatesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/24/2014 11:12 -0400
In what is certainly the most impotant news of the day, the WSJ reports that China's long-serving central banker Zhou Xiaochuan, "the face of the Chinese economy to markets globally" is about to be given the boot. According to the WSJ, "Chinese leader Xi Jinping is considering replacing Mr. Zhou, say party officials, as part of a wider personnel reshuffle that also comes after internal battles over economic reforms." And while it is true that at the age of 66, Zhou has passed China's retirement age, and his departure will be spun as an old man spending more time with his family, the reality is that this is part of a major Chinese shift in the "balance of power between reformist and reactionary forces, with the momentum for reforms being eroded by the loss of growth momentum in the economy," said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University China expert. Zhou's replacement: a career banker, who will do the bidding of, you guessed it, banks, which means "liquidity to the max."
The Fed, by raising its rates and relinquishing its downward pressure on the US dollar, is about to kill off most of the emerging markets. That’s a whole lot of misery in one pen stroke. That’s a whole lot of millions of people who will see their dreams of better lives shattered, just as they were beginning to think they had a chance. It’s how the game is played. The weak must be sacrificed so the strong be stronger.
When The New Normal Fails: The "Problem With Traditional Economics" In A Bizarro, Centrally-Planned WorldSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/23/2014 15:45 -0400
- U.S., backed by Arabs, launches first strikes on fighters in Syria (Reuters, BBG)
- But not all all back: Turkey Bars Kurds From Entering Syria to Fight Islamic State (BBG)
- Dollar Weakens on Airstrikes; Europe Stocks Drop (BBG)
- Ready for Rate Riot? Emerging Markets Set to Follow Fed (BBG)
- White House fence jumper had ammunition, machete in car, prosecutors say (WaPo)
- El-Erian "would have done things differently" (Reuters)
- Eurozone business growth slows in September, PMI survey finds (BBC)
- Shrinking Bond Desks Taken by Journeymen as Masters Fade (BBG)
- Manufacturing Rebound Relieves Growth Concerns in China (BBG)
- Former Trader Quits Playboy Club to Open Own Restaurant (BBG)
- FX payments on imports also prohibited if customs registration of goods takes more than 180 days
- Foreign investors forbidden to receive investment return from selling Ukraine securities beyond stock exchange, except govt bonds
- Foreign investors forbidden to receive dividend return on Ukrainian shares not traded in stock exchanges
- Central bank also forbids FX transactions using individual FX licenses, except placing money by cos. on accounts in foreign banks
With retail store closures running at their fastest pace since Lehman, and business closure rates higher than start-up rates for the first time in US history, billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel has some short-and-sweet advice on how to fix the apparent anti-business sentiment in America: "Get Government Out Of The Way."
Having cautioned investors this morning of the historical tendency for market reversals on September 22nd after hitting all-time highs, UBS' Art Cashin's warning has been echoed by BofAML's Macneil Curry who notes risk assets are set to correct as negative seasonals dominate the S&P500 this week. This is bullish for Treasuries, Curry adds. "Crazy? Maybe, but forewarned is forearmed," as Cashin concludes.