Lehman Brothers

Why Canada's Oil Industry May Never Be The Same

It is increasingly certain that the future will not be like the past. Previous downturns have been equally devastating but the primary causes eventually reversed themselves; low commodity prices recovered and damaging government policies were rescinded. This recovery will be different for a variety of reasons which will combine to cap growth, opportunity and profits, even if oil and gas prices spike. The following major changes appear permanent...

Pimco Economist Has A Stunning Proposal To Save The Economy: The Fed Should Buy Gold

"In the context of today’s paralyzed political-fiscal landscape how silly is it to suggest the Fed purchase a significantly large quantity of gold bullion at a substantially greater price than today’s free-market level, perhaps $5,000 an ounce?  Admittedly, this suggestion is almost too outrageous to post under the PIMCO logo, but NIRP surely would have elicited a similar reaction a decade ago. But upon reflection, it could be an elegant solution since it flips the boxes on a foreign currency “prisoner’s dilemma”. Most critically, a massive gold purchase has the potential to significantly boost inflationary expectations, both domestic and foreign."

Austria Just Announced A 54% Haircut Of Senior Creditors In First "Bail In" Under New European Rules

Following a decision by the Austrian Banking Regulator, the Finanzmarktaufsicht or Financial Market Authority, Austria officially became the first European country to use a new law under the framework imposed by Bank the European Recovery and Resolution Directive to share losses of a failed bank with senior creditors as it slashed the value of debt owed by Heta Asset Resolution AG.

Japan Says G-20 Accord Barring FX Devaluations Does Not "Rule Out Intervention" In The Yen

Earlier today, Japan's government spokesman Suga came as close as possible to admitting that there was in fact a tacit "Shanghai Accord" agreement when he said that the Group of 20's agreement to avoid competitive currency devaluation "does not mean Japan cannot intervene in response to one-sided currency moves." It got better: in an interview with Reuters Suga added that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's comment to the Wall Street Journal last week that countries should avoid "arbitrary intervention," was misunderstood and does not rule out intervention for Japan, Suga said.

Italy Seeks "Last Resort" Bailout Fund To "Ringfence" Troubled Banks, Meeting Monday

Italy is the “too big to fail”, “elephant in the room”. Should Italy try Austria’s solution, it presumably would cause a “chain reaction with ripple effects that would be felt across the European banking system.” Instead, officials will attempt to “ringfence” the problem, hoping to “sweep it under the rug” where presumably a “€360bn pile of non-performing loans” will cure itself, eliminating the need for additional bail-ins

In Historic First, Four Fed Chairs Sit Together To Share Their "Philosophy" - Live Webcast

Today at 5:30pm, the four people who have done more to shape the U.S. and global economy in the past four decades more than anyone else, will sit down to discuss their respective philosophies and explain how they see the present and future of the world. At that time, Janet Yellen will appear with her predecessors Ben S. Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker for a round table discussion. The event at the International House marks the first time the four Fed chiefs have gathered for a joint public appearance.

Futures Rise In Thin Trading On Back Of Yen Weakness; Europe Closed

With European markets closed across the continent on Monday as the Easter holiday continues, overnight Asia was busy with China Shanghai Composite letting off some steam, and closing down 0.7% at session lows on concerns the Shanghai and Shenzhen home bubble have been popped by the politburo, Japan was a different story with the Yen sliding following a report by the Sankei newspaper that Abe will announce in May his intention to delay the planned levy hike, coupled with additional reports that Japan will unveil a major fiscal stimulus (and just on Friday Abe said he is "not thinking at all about supplemental budget" at this time).

This 4,000-Year-Old Financial Indicator Says That A Major Crisis Is Looming

In nearly every single major recession and panic of the last century, there was a sharp rise in the gold/silver ratio. The crash of 1987. The Dot-Com bust in the late 1990s. The 2008 financial crisis. At 82x, this isn’t normal. In modern history, the gold/silver ratio has only been this high three other times, all periods of extreme turmoil—the 2008 crisis, Gulf War, and World War II. This suggests that something is seriously wrong. Or at least that people perceive something is seriously wrong.

"No Signs Of Recession" Says Agency That Always Fails To Predict Recession

The top economist for Moody’s (one of the largest rating agencies in the world) said yesterday, as he unleahed the latest jobs guess, that there are absolutely zero signs of recession. These sameguys were so drunk on their own Kool-Aid that in October 2007, Moody’s announced that “the economy is not going to slide away into recession.” Everyone assumed that the good times would last forever. This is what virtually assures negative interest rates in America.