Dear Janet... TED Spread Confirms 'Risk', Not 'Policy' Is Driving Rates

Once again FOMC policy is at odds with what is taking place in deeper and far more intellectually-sound money markets. The TED spread confirms risk not policy as the underlying mechanism, while the eurodollar futures price reveals the growing pessimism about what that could mean for the intermediate and long terms in real economic conditions.

"The Fed Has Mastered Market Manipulation" - Bill Gross Explains Why He Is Not A "Broken Clock"

"The problem with Cassandras, such as Gross and Jim Grant and Stanley Druckenmiller, among a host of others, is that we/they can be compared to a broken watch that is right twice a day but wrong for the other 1,438 minutes. But believe me: This watch is ticking because of high global debt and out-of-date monetary/fiscal policies that hurt rather than heal real economies. Sooner rather than later, Yellen’s smooth shot from the fairway will find the deep rough."

Do Newly Built Skyscrapers Signal The Top Of The Stock Market?

In the market, extreme optimism results in price bubbles. One of the real-life manifestations of extremely positive social mood is the construction of enormous buildings. Market tops and skyscrapers often seem to emerge simultaneously, because both phenomena are the result of the illusion of infinite prosperity. But extreme psychological conditions do not last very long...

European Banks Prepare For "Economic Nuclear Winter"

While some European bank stocks have scrambled back some of their plunge losses post-Brexit, the current uncertainty over when the U.K. will start the process of quitting the EU has banks on tenterhooks, with a source telling CNBC that banks are "preparing for an economic nuclear winter situation." With negative rates (and a plunging yield curve) banks' earnings are under threat but the concerns over the potential for contagious European break-up and collapse of the pound after Article 50 is signed is existential.

"Central Banks Now Own $25 Trillion Of Financial Assets"

  1. Central banks own $25tn of financial assets (a sum larger than GDP of US + Japan, and up $12tn since Lehman);
  2. There are currently $12.3tn of negative yielding global bonds (28% of total);
  3. There is currently $8tn of negative yielding sovereign debt (54% of total).

The First Victims Of The Libor Surge Have Emerged... In Japan

So far US banks have escaped the recent Libor surge, but the higher funding costs and shrunken market are hitting Japanese banks particularly hard, as they have been sourcing as much as a third of their U.S. dollar liquidity in the short-term U.S. market. Japanese banks have about $125 billion to $150 billion of CP and CDs maturing before the end of September.

Milwaukee Homicides Soar - What Is Going On In the Murderous Midwest?

Milwaukee homicides went vertical in 2015, up 69% YoY and over 100% since the recent low recorded in 2007.  But why the spike in violence now?  We explore some of the potential causes of soaring violence in the Midwest other than the media's favorite narrative calling for more gun control.

Fed's Williams Calls For An Overhaul Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy... But There Is A Problem

According to John Williams, central banks and governments must come up with new monetary and fiscal policies to kickstart a global economy which is barely growing (thanks to 7 years of flawed monetary policy). "We can wait for the next storm and hope for better outcomes or prepare for them now and be ready." As a result, Williams believes that a major fiscal stimulus thrust is now critical to propel the US economy higher. And he is, mostly, right. There is just one problem...

Panic? China Is Hoarding Cash At The Fastest Pace Since Lehman

The last few months have seen trillions of dollars of fresh credit puked into existence in China to enable goal-seeked growth numbers to creep lower (as opposed to utterly collapse). The problem is... the Chinese are hoarding that cash at the fastest pace since Lehman as liquidity concerns flood through the nation.