Update: And there it is: GLENCORE DEBT INSURANCE COSTS SURGE TO RECORD HIGH; 5-YR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS RISE 207BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY'S CLOSE TO 757 BASIS POINTS
Those who listened to our reco to buy Glencore CDS at 170 bps in March 2014 can take the rest of the year off. As of this moment, GLEN Credit Default Swap were pushing on 600 bps, 4 times wider, and on pace to take out the 2011 liquidity crunch highs. After that, it's smooth sailing to all time wides and the start of a self-fulfilling prophecy which leads to the Companys's IG downgrade and the collapse of trillions in derivative notionals as what may be the trading desk of the biggest commodity counterparty quietly goes out of business.
Not since October 2008 (cough post-Lehman cough), has The Nasdaq Biotech index dropped for 7 straight days. The 18% close-to-close drop in the last 7 days is the largest since Lehman.
At the height of the financial crisis, the unprecedented decline in swap rates below Treasury yields was seen as an anomaly. The phenomenon is now widespread, as Bloomberg notes, what Fabozzi's bible of swap-pricing calls a "perversion" is now the rule all the way from 30Y to 2Y maturities. As one analyst notes, historical interpretations of this have been destroyed and if the flip to negative spreads persists, it would signal that its roots are in a combination of regulators’ efforts to head off another financial crisis, China selling pressure (and its impact on repo markets) and "broken" wholesale money-markets.
"This is a monetary moment... we are looking at the beginning of the world’s reappraisal of the words and deeds of central bankers like Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi. You see monetary disorder manifested in super low interest rates, in the mispricing of credit broadly and you see it in the escalation of radical monetary nastrums that are floating out of the various central banks and established temples of thought: Negative real rates, negative nominal rates and the idea of helicopter money. So you need some hedge against things not going according to the script and that makes gold and gold mining equities terrifically interesting now."
Some people will never learn... ever. What is happening today is nothing more than rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The iceberg has been struck, we’re taking on water, and this sucker is going to sink. Game Over.
Fed credibility questioned and Yellen sick - Palladium surges 8% - Russia and central banks buy gold - Smart money rebalancing and selling overvalued assets to buy depressed assets especially silver
Did Goldman just hand out the blueprint to crush the next "Lehman" and unleash the next global bailout? Read on to find out.
Welcome To The Newer Normal: Your Complete Guide To A World In Which The Fed Is No Longer In ControlSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/23/2015 17:27 -0500
For those who have had the nagging feeling that something in the market has changed dramatically in the past few months, you are absolutely correct. Here is the full explanation.
Following Public Fury, Jim Cramer-Trained CEO Who Raised Price Of Drug By 5000%, Agrees To Lower The PriceSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/22/2015 22:02 -0500
Following the biggest plunge in biotech stocks in 2015 - some have speculated that the real goal of Shkreli's actions was to profit by shorting the biotech sector ahead of the selling which his action would have unleashed - and an epic public outcry against the diminutive "hedge fund" manager, NBC reported moments ago that "the pharmaceutical company boss under fire for increasing the price of the drug Daraprim by more than 5,000 percent said Tuesday he will lower the cost of the life-saving medication."
In short, the next round of the great crisis is beginning. It will take time to unfold, but we have reached Peak Central Bank Intervention. When Central Banks loosen policy and the markets fail to respond, you're in the End Game.
Today's Glencore implosion is a far greater risk to the capital markets and the global economy than Volkswagen: a few executive resignations, a few bribes to US Congress, and the scandal will be promptly snuffed. For Glencore, however, which suddenly the entire world realizes is - as we said in March 2014 - the way to trade China, it may now be too late.
If anyone is still confused by the trigger that caused the biggest selloff in biotech stocks in 2015, here are the Taiwanese animators with "all you need to know."
What the Fed really decided Thursday was to ride the zero-bound right smack into the next recession. When that calamity happens not too many months from now, the 28-year experiment in monetary central planning inaugurated by a desperate Alan Greenspan after Black Monday in October 1987 will come to an abrupt and merciful halt. Yellen and Co should be so lucky as to only face torches and pitch forks.