Lehman

EconMatters's picture

Just watch markets lately and one realizes rather fast that more job cuts are on the way, and in a major way all across the spectrum from financial analysts, stock analysts, traders in most products, back office support staff, and management.

Gold At $1600, Recoupling With Stocks Post QE2

The media appears to be gorging on the 2% drop today in Gold and 11% drop in the last 4 months. Gold's demise today appears triggered by JPY's dump at around 8amET - though longer-term, it appears gold and stocks are recoupling in the reflation trade from around the start of QE2. At $1600, gold is back at August 2012 levels but +134% from the 2008 Lehman 'event'.

Blowing In The Wind

European economies straight from script of Les Miserables. The dispensing of horsemeat on the Continent in food and otherwise. The oncoming of some sort of Asian Flu. Class warfare in America and the entire construct supported by a House of Cards relying solely on the printing presses housed in Washington, Frankfurt, London, Tokyo and Beijing. The beginnings of a small game of “Currency Wars” and the markets sit and ask the famous question; “What, me worry?” Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong. Besides an event then, the next Black Swan that may appear on the horizon, there is a fundamental mis-match now caused by the actions of the central banks. The money pours out like honey and must be used somewhere and so it is but the economic fundamentals are horribly out of tune with the next high notes that are being played in the markets.

Record February Gas Prices Mean It's Time To Blame The Hedge Funds Again

As the AAA chart below shows, the gasoline price is now higher than it was a year ago, and has been for the past two weeks, which also automatically means it is the highest it has even been in history (naturally, the implications of this record high gasoline tax on the cash-strapped US consumer are painfully clear).  So with gas prices once again "an issue", it is time to trot out the worn out scapegoating usual suspects - those evil, evil hedge funds, whom everyone is perfectly happy to blame. Or at least pest exterminators and cab drivers. From Reuters:

At a filling station in Midtown New York last week, several people were prepared to blame traders on Wall Street as they paid more than $4 per gallon to fill up their cars. "It really is not supply and demand. It's definitely speculation," said John Keegan, an exterminator with pest control company Terminate Control, who was filling up his van. A cab driver said he was convinced the price would be just $1 a gallon if the government "stopped Wall Street trading oil."

Of course, what the exterminator and cab driver fail to understand, or just are happy to ignore, is that the same hedge funds that merely allocate the Fed's virtually "open-ended" excess liquidity into stocks, which are now beyond furiously overvalued by any benchmark, and which as we explained over the weekend are trading at a higher forward P/E multiple now than they were in 2007, have increasingly few choices where to park their money, and even with the threat of the Margin Hiker in Chief sending CME margins to 100% across the energy space, sooner or later, those $85 billion in fresh monthly liquidity will go into Brent, WTI, and of course, gas.

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

If you have not already taken steps to prepare for systemic failure, you NEED to do so NOW. We're literally at most a few months, and very likely just a few weeks from Europe's banks imploding, potentially taking down the financial system with them. Think I'm joking? The Fed is pumping hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars into EU banks right now trying to stop this from happening.

How The Fed Is Handing Over Billions In "Profits" To Foreign Banks Each Year

Why has the Fed paid some $6 billion in interest to foreign banks, in the process subsidizing and keeping insolvent European and other foreign banks, in business and explicitly to the detriment of countless US-based banks who have to compete with Fed-funded foreign banks and who have to fire countless workers courtesy of this Fed subsidy to foreign workers? And, perhaps more importantly, why will the Fed pay about $5 billion or much more in interest to foreign banks each year starting in 2014? 

Inflation, Mean-Reversion, And 113 Years Of Bond & Stock Returns

The baby boomers now retiring grew up in a high returns world. So did their children. But, as Credit Suisse notes in their 2013 Yearbook, everyone now faces a world of low real interest rates. Baby boomers may find it hard to adjust. However, McKinsey (2012) predicts they will control 70% of retail investor assets by 2017. So our sympathy should go to their grandchildren, who cannot expect the high returns their grandparents enjoyed. From 1950 to date, the annualized real return on world equities was 6.8%; from 1980, it was 6.4%. The corresponding world bond returns were 3.7% and 6.4%, respectively. Equity investors were brought down to earth over the first 13 years of the 21st century, when the annualized real return on the world equity index was just 0.1%. But real bond returns stayed high at 6.1% per year. We have transitioned to a world of low real interest rates. The question is, does this mean equity returns are also likely to remain lower. In this compendium-like article, CS addresses prospective bond returns and interest rate impacts on equity valuations, inflation and its impact on equity beta, VIX reversions, and profiles 22 countries across three regions. Chart pr0n at its best for bulls and bears.

The Fed's Bailout Of Europe Continues With Record $237 Billion Injected Into Foreign Banks In Past Month

Last weekend Zero Hedge once again broke the news that just like back in June 2011, when as part of the launch of QE2 we demonstrated that all the incremental cash resulting form the $600 billion surge in the Fed's excess reserves, had gone not to domestically-chartered US banks, but to subsidiaries of foreign banks operating on US soil. To be sure, various other secondary outlets picked up on the story without proper attribution, most notably the WSJ, which cited a Stone McCarthy report adding the caveat that "interpreting the data released by the Federal Reserve is a bit challenging" and also adding the usual incorrect attempts at interpretation for why this is happening. To the contrary: interpreting the data is quite simple, which is why we made an explicit prediction: 'We urge readers to check the weekly status of the H.8 when it comes out every Friday night, and specifically line item 25 on page 18, as we have a sinking feeling that as the Fed creates $85 billion in reserves every month... it will do just one thing: hand the cash right over straight to still hopelessly insolvent European banks." So with Friday having come and gone, we did just the check we suggested. As the chart below shows, we were right.

Guest Post: The Linchpin Lie: How Global Collapse Will Be Sold To The Masses

The globalists have stretched the whole of the world thin.  They have removed almost every pillar of support from the edifice around us, and like a giant game of Jenga, are waiting for the final piece to be removed, causing the teetering structure to crumble.  Once this calamity occurs, they will call it a random act of fate, or a mathematical inevitability of an overly complex system.  They will say that they are not to blame.  That we were in the midst of “recovery”.  That they could not have seen it coming. Their solution will be predictable They will state that in order to avoid such future destruction, the global framework must be “simplified”, and what better way to simplify the world than to end national sovereignty, dissolve all borders, and centralize nation states under a single economic and political ideal?

GoldCore's picture

 

Gold rose $13.80 or 0.83% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,676.50/oz. Silver slipped to a low of $31.24 in the morning, but it then ran up to a high of $32.24 and finished with a gain of 2.01%.

Gold hovered nearly unchanged after surprise GDP figures showed that the U.S. economy contracted and the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained asset purchases. Platinum is on track for its most stellar month’s performance in a year.

A Quarter Of Jobs In America Pay Below The Federal Poverty Line

Over two years ago (and reiterated last year) Zero Hedge first wrote on what was and is an undisputed transition within the US labor force: a shift from full-time to temp, or part-time labor, with virtually no contractual or welfare benefits, and where workers are lucky to get minimum wage. This is because in the "New Normal" where copious amounts of structural slack are pervasive due precisely to the Fed's constant flawed micromanagement of the economy, the US has now become an "employers' market." Furthermore, we were the first to make the critical distinction that it is absolutely not all about the quantity of jobs, but much more importantly, the quality of the new jobs being created. However, just like 99% of the general public, and all of the mainstream media, has an inborn genetic disorder preventing it from grasping the distinction between nominal and real, so these two critical aspects of the US jobs market languished unperturbed. Until now, two years later, when we are happy to see that the mainstream media has finally caught up with what our readers knew in December 2010.