Lehman

The world of investing as we’ve come to know it is over. Financial markets have been distorted to such an extent by the activities, the interventions, of central banks – and governments -, that they can no longer function, period. The difference between the past 6 years and today is that central banks can and will no longer prop up the illusionary world of finance. And that will cause an earthquake, a tsunami and a meteorite hit all in one. If oil can go down the way it has, and copper too, and iron ore, then so can stocks, and your pensions, and everything else.

"we doubt inflation expectations will spike sustainably higher on any announcement given the “failed” history lessons of US and Japan as well as doubts about QE making a difference quickly in the Euro zone." - Deutsche Bank

Since the European sovereign-debt crisis erupted in 2009, everyone has wondered what would happen if a country left the eurozone. The risks created by the SNB’s decision – as transmitted through the financial system – have a fat tail - and the consequences will not be limited to Switzerland. After years of wondering whether the exit of a small, fiscally weak country like Greece could undermine the euro, policymakers will have to deal with an even bigger shock stemming from the exit of a small, fiscally strong country that is not even a member of the European Union.

First the good news... European Stocks (ex Greece and Switzerland) exploded higher this week with 'great' nations like Portugal (up over 7%) and Italy (up over 5.5%) and Germany's ADX over 10,000 to record highs. EU bond spreads compressed notably (Spain/Italy down 20bps or so on the week) and EURUSD crashed below 1.15... all on hopes that the SNB decision means Moar-Massive ECB QE comes next week (not priced in). But the bad news... Swiss stocks collapsed-er again today for the worst week since Lehman. Swiss bond yields are negative to 12 year maturity and EURCHF is back below par at 0.9820...

"In our portfolios with currencies, we have been short the CHF on the grounds that it was an expensive currency which we expected would experience capital outflows as European growth normalized. We were surprised by the sudden removal of the peg. Although the CHF real effective exchange rate is lower than during the European crisis of 2011, it has actually appreciated in recent months. We exited a substantial portion of our CHF short today and are monitoring the situation closely."

The FDIC-backed hedge fund may have beaten on the EPS and top line, the reason why investors are less than excited, is because as the chart below shows, the trend is most certainly not the friend of either Lloyd Blankfein or Goldman's shareholders. The culprit: the one most important category, FICC revenue, was nothing short of the Jefferies-hinted disaster, and at $1.218 billion, it was not only a huge miss to expectations of $1.6 billion, but was 30% lower compared to a year ago, and is the lowest FICC revenue since Lehman.

With the biggest miss since August 2011, The Philly Fed Factory Index crashed from 21 year highs in November to the lowest since Feb 2014. The headline 6.3 print, missing expectations of 18.7, follows last month's drop for the biggest 2-month drop since Lehman. Under the surface things are even worse with the employment sub-index plunging to its worsdt since June 2013 and the outlook for CapEx slashed in half from 24.8 to 13.2. But but but fundamentals...

Thing is, that whole line about how lower oil prices were going to be a boost for our economies was ignorant from the start. And there’s still plenty people believing just that. That may explain those EU stock exchange gains. That sort of thing all comes from people who don’t understand to what extent oil is pivotal to our societies. We’re not in 2008 anymore, when an oil price drop actually helped us crawl out of a tight spot. We’re $50 trillion down the road, and there won’t be another $50 trillion, or another road. For all intents and purposes, we are the center today, and we cannot hold this way.

In December I proclaimed that we'll likely see multiple crashes for 2015. I don't say this lightly & I have a track record on this topic that's foolish to ignore!

Today's prime time event hasn't even arrived, that would be the European Court of Justice (ECJ) delivering its final opinion on the legality of the ECB’s previously announced OMT program, in less than an hour, and already the fireworks have begun, most notably out of Asia where after yesterday's epic commodity drubbing many were caught with their pants down and margin calls up, and what followed was a classic liquidation puke, when Copper prices crashed over 8% on the LME, to fresh 5 year lows and below USD 5,500/T in London.

There is compelling evidence that 2015 will see a global slump in economic activity. This being the case, financial and systemic risks will increase as evidence of the slump accumulates. It can be expected to undermine global equities, property and finally bond markets, which are currently all priced for economic stability. Even though these markets are increasingly controlled by central bank intervention, it is dangerous to assume this will continue to be the case as financial and systemic risks accumulate. Precious metals are ultimately free from price management by the state. Furthermore, they are the only asset class notably under-priced today, given the enormous increase in the quantity of fiat money since the Lehman crisis. In short, 2015 is shaping up to be very bad for fiat currencies and very good for gold and silver.

Last week we focused on potential manipulations of the opaque and self-regulated process by which the conflicted members of ISDA’s Determinations Committee (“DC”) determine whether a triggering event has occurred. This week we will focus on the inherent problems in the External Review process, as set out in the Determinations Committee’s rules.

To most people it would be shocking that after $60 billion in litigation charges, i.e., the "cost of doing criminal business" for just the first 9 months of 2014 and a ridiculous $178 billion since Lehman the there would be those who are stunned that bonuses on Wall Street may take a hit as a result of all this rampant, and caught, criminality. Well, "those" exist. They are called bankers, the same group which in poll after poll heading into the end of 2014 predicted that this bonus season would be far better than what was paid out in 2013 (and most of which spent the money well in advance). Alas, that is not going to be the case.

• Global Debt Crisis II – Total Global Debt to GDP Ratio Over 300% - Risk of Bail-Ins in 2015 and Beyond - Currency and Gold Wars - $1 Quadrillion “Weapons of Mass Destruction” Derivatives - Cold War II and New World Order as China and Russia Flex Geopolitical Muscles - Enter The Dragon – Paradigm Shift of China Gold Demand - Forecast 2015: None. Forecast 2020: Gold $2,500/oz and Silver $150/oz

Introduce a regulation over here, an unintended consequence pops up over there. Then there are more regulations to deal with the unintended consequences. Regulations have added 100 times the volatility to one of the most liquid and ordinary derivatives in the world - the plain-vanilla EFP. Less liquidity, more volatility - welcome to 2015.