Lennar

• Australia says nothing spotted in search for plane (AP)
• Putin looks to Asia as West threatens to isolate Russia (Reuters)
• China Billionaire Builds Metals With Dreyfus, Glencore Hires (BBG)
• China Beige Book Says Economy Slowing (BBG)
• Caterpillar Said to Be Focus of Senate Overseas Tax Probe (BBG)
• US Cancels Summit With Divided Group of Gulf Nations (WSJ)
• Cyprus defense minister suffers aneurysm (AP)
• Abe to zero in on economy as tax hike looms (Nikkei)
• Europe strikes deal to complete banking union (Reuters)

• Possible debris off Australia a 'credible lead' for missing Malaysia jet (Reuters)
• Maldives and Afghanistan: Theories Blossom for Airliner (BBG)
• Ukraine Military Concedes on Crimea as Russia Takes Hold (BBG)
• Asia Stocks Drop on Fed; H-Share Index Enters Bear Market (BBG)
• Scientists say destructive solar blasts narrowly missed Earth in 2012 (Reuters)
• GM’s Ignition Victims Need Help From Bankruptcy Judge (BBG)
• U.S. Alleges Inside Traders Used Spycraft, Ate Evidence (WSJ)
• God Meets Profit in Obama Contraceptive Rule Court Case (BBG)

It’s safe to say that America — especially the American media and Wall Street firms — has fallen in love with real estate again. But, this time around it’s not ‘all of America’ like the last time; when the most exotic mortgage loans known to mankind turned every ma and pa end-user homeowner into a raging speculator. One has to look no further than the generationally low level of purchase loan applications — with rates at generational lows — to realize something isn’t ‘normal’ about this housing market. Rather, controlling this housing market over the past three years has been a small, unorthodox slice of the population that “invests” in real estate using tractor-trailer trucks full of cash-money slopping around the financial system put into play specifically for this purpose. Over the past few years so much cash-money has been deployed into the housing sector by unorthodox parties, that in many regions ma and pa end-user hasn’t stood a chance to buy. Especially, if they need a mortgage loan, which of course presents numerous risks to the seller vs the all-cash buyer.... We could be back in a house-price bubble right now and not even realize it. And also because everybody is looking at the wrong thing…house prices. Sound confusing? It’s not, really.

• No need to use military force in Ukraine for now: Putin (Reuters)
• Russia Orders Drill Troops Back to Bases (WSJ)
• Ukraine premier agrees to reforms for aid package (FT)
• Japan Base Wages Rise for First Time in Nearly Two Years (WSJ)
• Only the algos are trading: Citigroup Joins JPMorgan in Seeing Trading-Revenue Drop  (BBG)
• Vietnam sends blogger to prison for critical posts (AP)
• At White House, Israel's Netanyahu pushes back against Obama diplomacy (Reuters)
• Obama to offer new tax breaks for workers in election year budget pitch (Reuters)
• China Banks Show Too-Connected-to-Fail Link to Shadow Loans (BBG)
• Ex-BOK Deputy Lee Named to Head South Korea Central Bank (BBG)
• No mortgage origination problem in the UK: Mortgage approvals climb to six year high (Telegraph)

• Draghi as ECB Master of Suspense Keeps Investors on Edge (BBG)
• Abe lays out detailed plan for expanding defense powers (Nikkei)
• Inflation Fuels Crises in Two Latin Nations (WSJ)
• Obama walks into crossfire of Asian tensions (FT)
• Harvard Makes Professor Disclose More After Blinkx Slides (BBG)
• Hedge Funds Rework Currency Positions in Market Drop (BBG)
• Canada, U.S. Strike Tax-Information Sharing Deal (WSJ)
• Indonesia calls for greater clarity from Fed on tapering (FT)
• Sony to cut 5,000 jobs, split off PC, TV operations (Reuters)

• MOAR: BOJ Said to See Significant Room for More Bond Purchases (BBG)
• Meltdown Averted, Bernanke Struggled to Stoke Growth (Hilsenrath)
• New Mortgages to Get Pricier Next Year (WSJ)
• Republicans to Seek Concessions From Obama on Debt Limit (BBG)
• Hunting for U.S. arms technology, China enlists a legion of amateurs (Reuters)
• Jury Begins Deliberating in Case of SAC Portfolio Manager (WSJ)
• BP to Write Off $1 Billion on Failed Well (WSJ)
• Rajan Unexpectedly Keeps India Rates Unchanged to Support Growth (BBG)
• Thai protesters say they will rally to hound PM from office (Reuters)
• SEC Brings Fewer Enforcement Actions, Slows Early-Stage Probes (WSJ)

• EU Fines Financial Institutions Over Fixing Key Benchmarks (Reuters)
• Euro-Area Economic Growth Slows as Exports, Consumption Cool (BBG) - someone has a very loose definition of growth
• Ukraine Officials Scour Globe for Cash as Protests Build (BBG)
• Oops: Franklin Boosted Ukraine Bet to $6 Billion as Selloff Began (BBG)
• Japan Plans 18.6 Trillion Yen Economic Package to Support Growth (BBG) - or about 2 months of POMO
• How Peugeot and France ran out of gas (Reuters)
• Iran threatens to trigger oil price war (FT)
• Abe Vows to Pass Secrecy Law That Hurts Cabinet’s Popularity (BBG)
• Brazil economy turns in worst quarter for 5 years (FT)
• Australia’s Slowdown Suggests RBA May Need to Do More (BBG)
• Biden calls for trust with China amid airspace dispute (Reuters)

I like Professor Shiller and respect his work. Really, I do, but... Massive bubbles, the sort of the proportion of the 2008 crisis, are nigh impossible to miss if you can add single digits successfully and are able to keep your eyes open for a few minutes at a time. Yes, I truly do feel its that simple. I saw the property bubble over a year in advance, cashed out and came back in shorting - all for a very profitable round trip. Was I a genius soothsayer? Well, maybe in my own mind, but the reality of the situation is I was simply paying attention. Let's recap:

Early weakness in Asia driven by US-follow thru selling and ongoing concerns about the us fiscal showdowns as well as the debt ceiling, if not by actual news, resulted in a red close in both the Nikkei and SHCOMP, as well as other regional indices such as the Sensex. This then shifted to Europe, where however stocks reversed the initial move lower and are seen broadly flat, with Bunds remaining bid on the back of month-end, as well as coupon and redemption related flows. However the move higher in stocks was led by telecommunications and health care sectors, which indicates that further upside will require another positive catalyst. There was little in terms of fresh EU related macroeconomic commentary, but according to a report published by the European Banking Authority, the EU’s biggest 42 banks cut their aggregate capital shortfall with respect to the “fully loaded” 2019 Basel III requirements to €70.4bln as of December 2012. This is amusing since not one European bank has actually raised capital, but merely redefined what constitutes capital courtesy of a liberal expansion of RWA, Tier 1 and various other meaningless definition which works until such time as the perilous European balance kept together by the non-existent OMT, is tipped over.

"When you start seeing a slowdown, that's a reason to believe it's going to accelerate," is how Bob Shiller responds to a question of the slowing rise in home prices. While Cramer demands we focus attention of the 'earnings' of the homebuilders and what they are saying, Shiller prefers to look at the data. The always pragmatic professor notes he is "not worried about a slowdown" because he is "more worried about bubbles" that appear to be back in the US housing market. "In some cities it's looking bubbly now," Shiller adds, remarking on the fundamental speculative shift in homeownership to the hedge funds on the own-to-rent bandwagon (that we noted last night appears to be coming to an abrupt end for the smarter money). The biggest drivers of future gains, Shiller adds, are 'recent gains' (which are fading), and employment (which is awfully slow) suggesting "there might be a slowdown ahead."

• Iran Icebreaker Set at U.N.  (WSJ)
• Chrysler Feud Triggers IPO Filing  (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Chase, 12 More Banks Said to Be Sued Over Libor (BBG)
• Regulator sues Morgan Stanley, eight others over faulty securities (Reuters)
• Monte Paschi Seen Boosting Cost Goals to Meet EU Demands (BBG)
• Here we go again - "not enough funds": CFTC chair Gary Gensler warns on fund cuts to police derivatives (FT)
• Congress Fuels Private Jails Detaining 34,000 Immigrants (BBG)
• KKR, Sycamore looking to buy Jones Group this week (NYPost) - take with lots of salt
• Fiat rethinks alliance with Chrysler after IPO filing (Reuters)
• Young Invincibles Caught in Crossfire Over Obamacare Cost (BBG)
• Mayfair Office Squeeze Spawns New London Real Estate Hubs (BBG)

• Egypt, U.S. on Collision Course (WSJ), Gunmen kill 24 Egyptian police in Sinai ambush (Reuters)
• India’s efforts fail to prevent new rupee low (FT)
• More bad news for AAPL: Steve Jobs Biopic Crashes on Opening Weekend (WSJ)
• "Sustainable" - U.S. Stocks Beat BRICs by Most Ever Amid Market Flight (BBG)
• Merkel cancels election rally after hostage taking (Reuters)
• Some day, Abenomics might work... Not today though: Japan Exports Rise Most Since ’10 as Deficit Swells (BBG)
• China July Home Prices Rise as Nation Seeks Long-Term Policy (BBG)
• Spanish Bank’s Bad Loan Ratio Rises to Record in June (Reuters)
• Recovery... for some - Ferrari NART Spyder Sets $27.5 Million Auction Record (BBG)
• Bund yields hit 17-month high, rupee slumps (Reuters)
• Regulatory Headaches Worsen for J.P. Morgan (WSJ)

• Humans Beating Robots Most Since ’08 as Trends Shift (BBG)
• Easing of Mortgage Curb Weighed (WSJ)
• European Banks Face Capital Gap With Focus on Leverage (BBG)
• Signs Suggest China Warming to Idea of Stimulus (WSJ)
• China Coal-Fired Economy Dying of Thirst as Mines Lack Water (BBG)
• Jeans and shoes show criminal underbelly of China-EU trade (Reuters)
• How U.S. drug sting targeted West African military chiefs (Reuters)
• Japan scrambles jets after China plane flies by southern islands (Reuters)
• Apple Plots Return to Growth After Coping With Aging Lineup (BBG)
• AT&T Falls Shy of Analyst Estimates as Discounts Hurt Margins (BBG)
• SAC insider trading case takes twist (FT)

• Stocks Fall With China in Bear Market as Bonds Decline (BBG)
• Russia defiant as U.S. raises pressure over Snowden (Reuters) ...
• and sure enough: Kerry Warns Hong Kong and Russia on Snowden  (WSJ)
• Slow-Motion U.S. Recovery Searches for Second Gear (WSJ)
• PBOC Sees ‘Reasonable’ Liquidity in China’s Financial System (BBG)
• Italy's Berlusconi faces verdict in underage sex trial (Reuters)
• Fed Monetary Course Difficult for a Bernanke Successor to Alter (BBG)
• Another China central bank worry; companies push into lending (Reuters)
• Gold Miner Writedowns at $17 Billion After Newcrest Fallout (BBG)
• Snowden Faces Often-Posed U.S. Fugitive Question: Where to Run? (BBG)

• Pimco Sees 60% Chance of Global Recession in Five Years (BBG)
• Global Tumult Grips Markets (WSJ)
• NSA Secrecy Prompts a Pushback (WSJ)
• ANA Scraps 787 Dreamliner Flight as Engine Fails to Start (BBG) - one of these days, though, it shall fly
• Kuroda’s April-Was-Enough Message Faces Markets Wanting More (BBG)
• S&P warns top US banks are still ‘too big to fail’ (FT)
• Democracy for $500 per plate (Reuters)
• Iran, the United States and 'the cup of poison' (Reuters)
• Japan grapples with lack of entrepreneurs (FT)
• Greece First Developed Market Cut to Emerging at MSCI (BBG)
• Asia's ticking time bonds; time to cut and run? (Reuters)
• Sony Outduels Microsoft in First PS4-Xbox One Skirmish (BBG)