After forensically analyzing Morgan Stanley's balance sheet (which is very much like the rest of Wall Street's balance sheet) I can draw direct parallels to that of Lehman and Bear Stearns in 2007. It's a party!
Wall Street Poised For Another Revenue Bloodbath After Harbinger Jefferies Reports 56% Fixed Income PlungeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/17/2015 10:40 -0400
What Jefferies is best known for among Wall Street shareholders is that, by still reporting a Nov. 30 fiscal year end, 1 month ahead of everyone else, it provides an invaluable glimpse into the fortunes of its Wall Street peers with a 4 week advance notice, especially when it comes to its bread and butter: fixed income trading (recall that CEO Rich Handler was a Drexel bond trader when the firm blew up). The result, just like last quarter, was a disaster and indicative of nothing short of a trading bloodbath on Wall Street in the past three months of trading. The bottom line, and what everyone who is awaiting the latest FICC numbers from the balance of the banks will be focusing on, is the 56% drop in Q1 revenue from fixed-income trading, down to $126 million from $286 million a year ago.
Two weeks after FXCM was on death's door, and only a last minute vulture investment by Jefferies prevented the company from filing, FXCM has decided that it can't afford to blow up the bulk of its clients who traded the EURCHF on the wrong side, and as the company reported moments ago, will forgive their negative balances. In other words, another bailout for HFTs, and the rich and those habitually addicted to gambling in rigged markets, who just happen to be the lifeblood of companies like FXCM.
Market Wrap: Chinese Stocks Crash As Financials Suffer Record Drop; Commodities Resume Decline; US ClosedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2015 08:12 -0400
Following last week's Swiss stock market massacre as a result of a central bank shocker, and last night's crack down by Chinese authorities, it almost appears as if the global powers are doing what they can to orchestrated a smooth, painless (as much as possible) bubble deflation. If so, what Draghi reveals in a few days may truly come as a surprise to all those- pretty much everyone - who anticipate a €500 billion QE announcement on Thursday.
In an apparent replay for 2012's Knight Trading algo-implosion $400 million cash-infusion bailout, Jefferies (owned by NY-based I-bank Leucadia) is riding its white horse to the rescue of FXCM and its $200-million-plus client losses:
- *LUK IN $300M DEAL TO LET FXCM CONTINUE NORMAL OPS: CNBC
- *LEUCADIA GIVE FXCM $300M IN FINANCING CNBC
Leucadia will get $250m in senior notes as part of the deal, CNBC says. So - in summary - a central bank blew up an FX broker and a mid-market junk-bond underwriter bailed them out... must be good for a green close for the week in stocks!
Wall Street Harbinger Jefferies Reports Q4 Bloodbath: 73% Plunge In Fixed Income Revenue, 45% Drop In EquitiesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/16/2014 15:42 -0400
What Jefferies is best known for among Wall Street shareholders is that, by still reporting a Nov. 30 fiscal year end, 1 month ahead of everyone else, it provides an invaluable glimpse into the fortunes of its Wall Street peers with a 4 week advance notice, especially when it comes to its bread and butter: fixed income trading (recall that CEO Rich Handler was a Drexel bond trader when the firm blew up). And report it did earlier today, although most of Wall Street shareholders would rather it didn't, because the numbers were absolutely abysmal, and indicative of nothing short of a trading bloodbath on Wall Street in the latest three months of trading.
- Jackson Hole Theme: Labor Markets Can’t Take Higher Rates (BBG), or anything else for that matter
- Kidnappers free American missing in Syria since 2012 (Reuters)
- More unpatriots: Burger King in merger talks with Canada's Tim Hortons (Reuters)
- California Quake to Cost Insurers Up to $1 Billion, Eqecat Says (BBG)
- Congo declares Ebola outbreak in northern Equateur province (Reuters)
- Missouri Governor Defends Ferguson Prosecutor (BBG)
- Kuroda Douses Japan Stimulus Expectations (WSJ)
- London Jihadi Call Vies With Banks in Canary Wharf Shadow (BBG)
- Netanyahu Signals Expansion of Air Attacks in Gaza (WSJ)
- Libya's Islamist Militias Claim Control of Tripoli (WSJ)
- Yellen Dashboard Warning Light Glows as Millions Work Part Time (BBG)
- More US drones boosting global GDP: Unidentified war planes, explosions heard in Libyan capital (Reuters)
- London Home Asking Prices Plunge Most in More Than Six Years (BBG)
- Carney - Rate Hike before Pay Recovers (Times)
- No Fed fireworks, but plenty of clues, expected at Jackson Hole (Reuters)
- Kurdish, Iraqi forces in control of Mosul dam (Reuters)
- China Pushes Cleanup of Banks (WSJ)
- Russia Widens Ruble Trading Band in Move Away From Managed Rate (BBG)
- Dollar General Makes $9.7 Billion Family Dollar Counterbid (BBG)
- Autopsy finds unarmed teen killed by police was shot six times (NYT)
- Bull Market Waning as Barclays Sees 1% Gain for S&P 500 (BBG)
- Credit Suisse Caught Up in Espírito Santo Mess (WSJ)
Jefferies, Deutsche Bank, and now Citi and JPMorgan are all facing a collapse in trading volumes as Bloomberg reports the two banks brace for a fourth straight drop in first-quarter trading revenues - a period of the year when the largest investment banks typically earn the most from that business. “It sounds like more bloodletting on Wall Street,” warns one analyst, as Citi expects trading revenue to drop by a “high mid-teens” percentage.
The chart below summarizes what can only be described as an epic collapse in Jefferies' fixed-income trading revenue, which imploded by an unprecedented 88% Y/Y, and 84.5% from later quarter, to $33.1 million - the lowest since the same quarter in 2011 when the European collapse dragged everyone down, and sent Jefferies stock into the single digits over concerns about its European exposure, forcing Dick Handler to release a CUSIP by CUSIP disclosure of its European holdings.
- Israel Ready to Invade Gaza If Cease-Fire Efforts Fail (Bloomberg)
- Petraeus: A Phony Hero for a Phony War (NYT)
- IMF'S Lagarde says Greek deal should be "rooted in reality" (Reuters) "rooted" or "roofied"? And where was it until now?
- ECB's Asmussen says Greece to need aid beyond 2014 (AP)
- EU makes budget plans without (FT)
- Japanese Poll Shows LDP Advantage Ahead of Election (WSJ)
- Shanghai Composite Dips Below, Regains 2,000 Level (Bloomberg)
- Bond investor takes big punt on Ireland (FT)
- Noda defends BoJ’s independence (FT) Indewhatnow?
- Inaba Says BOJ Could Ease More If Government Reins in Debt (Bloomberg) Actually it's the other way around
- Miles Says Bank of England Can Do More If U.K. Slump Persists (Bloomberg) So much for the end of QE
- US tax breaks worth $150bn face axe (FT)
- The Bild is now a source for EURUSD stop hunts: Germany eyes 'bundled' loan payment to Greece-paper (Reuters, Bloomberg)
- Congress comes back Tuesday to confront “fiscal cliff.” (Reuters)
- Gen. John Allen ensnared in Petraeus scandal (Politico)
- FBI Agent in Petraeus Case Under Scrutiny (WSJ)
- Comcast's NBCUniversal unit lays off 500 employees (Reuters)
- University Fees Stoke U.K. Inflation (WSJ)
- Consumers Closing Wallets in Japan Add to Noda’s Woes (Bloomberg)
- John McAfee Wanted for Murder... and explaining bathsalt anal suppositories (Gizmodo)
- Europe Gives Greece 2 More Years to Reach Deficit Targets (Bloomberg)
- Where Spain Is Worse Than Greece (WSJ)
- Microsoft's Windows unit head, once a possible CEO, exits (Reuters)
- Glitch stops NYSE trading in 216 companies (FT)
- Large European Banks Stash Cash (WSJ)
- The death of San Bernardino: How a vicious circle of self-interest sank California city (Reuters)
- Apple stores most productive US shops (FT)
- Treasuries See U.S. Falling Over Cliff as Yields Converge (Bloomberg)
- Bra-Bodysuits Make H&M One Hit Wonder as Zara Prospers (Bloomberg)
- Jefferies to be bought by Ian Cumming's Leucadia in an all-stock deal for $3.59 billion or about $17/share (WSJ)
- FBI Scrutinized on Petraeus (WSJ)
- Identity of second woman emerges in Petraeus' downfall (Reuters)
- SEC staffers used government computers for personal use (Reuters)
- Japan edges towards fifth recession in 15 years (FT)
- Europe Finance Chiefs Seek Greek Pact as Economy Gloom Grows (BBG)
- Americans Say Europe Lesson Means Act Now as Austerity Will Fail (BBG) - of course it would be great if Europe had ever implemented austerity...
- Greece battles to avert €5bn default (FT)
- You don't bail out the US government for nothing: No Individual Charges In Probe of J.P. Morgan (WSJ)
- Israel Warns of Painful Response to Fire From Gaza, Syria (BBG)
- Greece's far-right party goes on the offensive (Reuters)
- Don’t fear fiscal cliff, says Democrat (FT)
- Apple Settles HTC Patent Suits Shifting From Jobs’ War (BBG)
- Man Set on Fire in Argentina Over Debt (EFE)
- Iraq cancels $4.2-billion weapons deal with Russia over corruption concerns (Globe and Mail)
- An Honest Guy on Wall Street (Bloomberg)
Yesterday, Reuters' blogger Felix Salmon in a well-written if somewhat verbose essay, makes the argument that "Greece has the upper hand" in its ongoing negotiations with the ad hoc and official group of creditors. It would be a great analysis if it wasn't for one minor detail. It is wrong. And while that in itself is hardly newsworthy, the fact that, as usual, its conclusion is built upon others' primary research and analysis, including that of the Wall Street Journal, merely reinforces the fact that there is little understanding in the mainstream media of what is actually going on behind the scenes in the Greek negotiations, and thus a comprehension of how prepack (for now) bankruptcy processes operate. Furthermore, since the Greek "case study" will have dramatic implications for not only other instances of sovereign default, many of which are already lining up especially in Europe, but for the sovereign bond market in general, this may be a good time to explain why not only does Greece not have the upper hand, but why an adverse outcome from the 11th hour discussions between the IIF, the ad hoc creditors, Greece, and the Troika, would have monumental consequences for the entire bond market in general.
With Leucadia coming boldly from behind the shadows, where Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg have always enjoyed operating, and joining Buffett in a deal over Capmark's loan-servicing and mortgage business, it makes sense to introduce readers with some of the very original thinking of the Leucadia founders (and very close friends of the mellifluously named Dick Handler). We present their most recent annual investor letter, which frequently is cited as among the best hedge fund (even though they don't like to be seen as one) strategy reading material.