Liquidity Bubble

The Hope For A "Greater Fool"

The “Greater Fool Theory” surmises there is always a “greater fool” than you in the market to sell to. For Wall Street, that greater fool is you. Haven’t you ever wondered why Wall Street never tells you to “sell and raise some cash?”

Beautiful Brexit & The Five Stages Of Grief

The post-Brexit ‘conversation’ in Britain is taking on grotesque proportions. Nobody seems to know how to react, at least not in a rational manner. They all look to be stuck in phase one of Kübler Ross’s Five Stages of Grief, i.e. Denial. Phase two is supposed to be Anger, and while there’s plenty of that, the shape it takes makes one think Angry Denial, instead of a progression between phases. That is to say, I don’t think I’ve seen one voice expressing anger at themselves. It’s all somebody else’s fault. And it just keeps going.

This Is What The Unprecedented Chinese M&A Scramble In America Looks Like

The level of Chinese cross-border M&A chasing after US targets is literally off the charts. Notably, China has accounted for 26% of global cross-border activity YTD, which is nearly 3x higher than the next highest year. At $28 bn YTD, US-inbound deal flow from Chinese acquirers is already a record level and nearly 2x last year’s volumes

Making Sense Of The Sudden Market Plunge

The eventual outcome to all this is captured brilliantly in this quote by Ludwig Von Mises, the Austrian economist: "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." The credit expansion happened between 1980 and 2008, there was a warning shot which was soundly ignored by ignorant central bankers, and now we have more, not less, debt with which to contend.

Mark Hanson Is In "Full-Blown, Black-Swan Lookout Mode" For Housing Bubble 2.0

Real Estate is a highly “illiquid” asset class ‘most of the time’.  It always has been and always will be.  However, some times, such as now - and from 2003 to 2007 as a prime example - when liquidity is flowing like water, Real Estate’s illiquidity is masked.  Speculators can do no wrong.  Simply having access to short-term or mortgage capital to purchase Real Estate guaranties a double-digit return.  This continues until one day, suddenly, it doesn’t; and, the snap-back to the true, historical illiquid nature of the Real Estate sector happens suddenly and is amplified at first. This creates a snowball effect from which both house supply and illiquidity surge at the same time. Price then becomes the liquidity fulcrum and will drop, relentlessly ripping speculators faces off, until capital begins to view the asset class as a relative value once again.

Right Now, In Hong Kong...

Sit back, grab some popcorn and just watch as the exponential gets exponentialer... and then it all goes splat.

Bad News For America's Biggest Housing Bubble: San Francisco Home Prices Suffer Biggest Drop In Three Years

It was not only the annual growth rate of only 7.9%, matching the lowest since the European debt bubble burst in 2010, but also the sequential rate of price drops, at -0.9% - the biggest monthly drop in three years, or since January 2012 - that will once again be a subject for concern of housing watchers. Because should the price decline resume its acceleration without any emerging tailwinds to prop up the local housing market, then there will surely be some severe fallout such as this peak housing bubble example, in which as Curbed reported last week, a run down shack which listed for $799,000 sold for 50% more, or $1.2 million a few weeks later!

A Most Curious Disconnect

While the actual number of new homes sold has barely budged during the so-called Recovery, the incentive for the builders, is right there, and as can been by median new home prices which continue to rise, and in fact hit an all time high as recently as December!

The Impact Of A Liquidity Bubble On Price In One Chart

The following chart courtesy of Citigroup, demonstrating the liquidity cliff, i.e., the impact of a liquidity bubble on price and risk, is so mindbogglingly simple, it is no wonder that virtually nobody gets it.

5 Things To Ponder: The Interest Rate Conundrum

After several months of quite complacency, investors were woken up Thursday by a sharp sell off driven by concerns over potential rising inflationary pressures, rising credit default risk and weak undertones to the economic data flows. One of the primary threats that has been readily dismissed by most analysts is the impact from rising interest rates...