Lloyds

Full Preview Of Janet Yellen's Last Ever Rate Hike

In previewing today's FOMC decision, which will also be Janet Yellen's last rate hike decision and press conference before she is replaced by Jay Powell, there is a TL/DR version, which is summarized by the chart below and which shows that according to the market, the probability of a rate hike today is 100%.

Frontrunning: December 12

  • Parties Make Final Push Ahead of Dramatic Alabama Senate Race (WSJ)
  • Oil hits two-and-a-half year high on pipeline shutdown, stocks take breather (Reuters)
  • Alabama drama nears an explosive end (The Hill)
  • Moore, Jones Expose Rural-Urban Divide That Defines Alabama Race (BBG)
  • The Force Behind Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise: Millions of Asian Investors (WSJ)

Frontrunning: November 30

  • The thinking behind Kim Jong Un's 'madness' (Reuters); U.S. warns North Korean leadership will be 'utterly destroyed' in case of war (Reuters)
  • Senate tax drama enters complicated end-game gambit (Reuters)
  • Corporate Tax Rate in Flux as Senate Prepares to Vote (WSJ)
  • The Senate Tax Bill Has Something for Every Republican to Hate (BBG)
  • Bitcoin Mania: Even Grandma Wants In (WSJ)

US Futures, World Stocks, Bitcoin All Hit Record Highs

US equity futures continued their push higher overnight (ES +0.1%), and the VIX is 1.5% lower and back under 10, after yesterday's blistering surge in US stocks which jumped 1%, the most since Sept. 11. The biggest mover of the session however was bitcoin, which topped $10,000 in a buying frenzy which saw it go from $9,000 to $10,000 in one day, and which is on its way to rising above $11,000.

Frontrunning: November 21

  • U.S. sues to stop AT&T buying Time Warner, says would hike rates (Reuters)
  • Merkel Tells Her Rivals: Back Me or Face Voters (BBG)
  • German Turmoil Threatens Europe (WSJ)
  • European Giants Are Making a Bad Month Worse for Stock Market (BBG)
  • Taylor Swift Is Building a Wall (VF)

Frontrunning: October 27

  • U.S. Economy Expected to Show Momentum, Despite Storms (WSJ)
  • As Trump tax comes to floor, failure could spell stocks selloff (Reuters)
  • Washington’s Biggest Mystery: What’s in the Republican Tax Plan? (BBG)
  • Spain set to impose direct rule in Catalonia as crisis spirals (Reuters)
  • Catalans Send Emissary to Madrid to Plead for a Deal (BBG)

ECB Preview: Here's What Draghi Will Announce Today

Thursday's ECB meeting is expected to be one of the most important in recent years: Mario Draghi has signaled, and is widely expected to announce a blueprint of what the central bank's QE tapering will look like beyond 2017, and while no actual tightening will be implemented - either via rates of asset purchases - the ECB is expected to announce it will cut its €60bn/month bond purchases in roughly half starting in January 2018 and lasting for the next 9-15 months.

Bond Yields Break Out Around The World As Japan's Record Stock Rally Ends

S&P futures are fractionally in the red while traders await President Trump’s pick for Fed chair and more clues on the fate of tax reform; Asian stocks slide, European shares are little changed ahead of tomorrow's ECB tapering announcement as US 10Y yields finally break out of their multi-month range below 2.40%.

Frontrunning: October 24

  • Corker Tells Trump to Stay Out of the Tax Debate (BBG)
  • Food fight? After spats on Twitter, Trump’s having lunch with Senate Republicans (McClatchy)
  • As ‘New Era’ Dawns, Xi’s Party Stays Out of the Sun (WSJ)
  • China enshrines 'Xi Jinping Thought', key Xi ally to step down (Reuters)
  • U.S. Set to Resume Admitting Refugees but With New Rules (WSJ)