Lloyds

Previewing The September "Hurricane-Disrupted" Jobs Report

Tomorrow's hurricane-affected September jobs report will be... confusing. That is the (lack of) consensus from Wall Street analysts, who expect an average print of 80,000 (down from the 3-month average of 185K), however with huge variance on either side, with 4 economists predicting a loss of jobs, three expecting a print higher than 150K and one optimistic forecaster going as high as 260,000.

ECB Preview: A Trapped Mario Draghi Makes A Decision

After a barrage of media trial balloons (as recently as today) meant to temper the enthusiasm of Euro bulls now that the EURUSD is back to 1.20 and threatening European corporate profitability, Mario Draghi's Sintra hawkishness is a distant memory.

Frontrunning: August 31

  • Katrina Survivors Relive Nightmare (WSJ)
  • Harvey drenches Louisiana, sparks blast at Texas chemical plant (Reuters)
  • Immigration crackdown could slow rebuilding efforts (Reuters)
  • Kushners’ China Deal Flop Was Part of Much Bigger Hunt for Cash  (BBG)
  • U.S. bombers drill over Korean peninsula after latest North Korea launch (Reuters)

Frontrunning: August 22

  • Trump commits to a 'fight to win' in Afghan war (Reuters)
  • Stay or Go? Some Trump Aides Are Pressed From All Sides (WSJ)
  • Futures higher as traders pick up beaten-down stocks (Reuters)
  • Divers Search Compartments of Ship for Missing Sailors (WSJ)
  • Why Do U.S. Navy Ships Keep Colliding? (BBG)

Frontrunning: July 27

  • Healthcare showdown (Reuters)
  • Tax Overhaul in Doubt With House Stuck on Budget Disagreements (BBG)
  • Dollar steadies after Fed skid, shares hit new highs (Reuters)
  • Samsung Is Closing In on Apple as World’s Most Profitable Tech Firm (WSJ)
  • Sweden's PM Refuses to Resign After Cyber-Security Scandal (BBG)

Frontrunning: July 26

  • Oil bounce, results keep stocks on high (Reuters)
  • Healthcare brawl returns to Senate floor (Reuters); Senate Sets Up Health Votes for Chaotic Obamacare Debate (BBG); Health Debate Rolls On After First Option Fails (WSJ)
  • Who Will Blink First in the Sessions Standoff? (BBG)
  • Iran Says ‘Hostile’ U.S. Sanctions Vote Undermines Nuclear Deal (BBG)
  • Russia Warns of ‘Painful’ Response If Trump Backs U.S. Sanctions (BBG)

Frontrunning: July 12

  • Yellen to Address Interest Rates, Balance Sheet (WSJ)
  • Stocks Rebound as Dollar Dips on Trump Revelations (BBG)
  • Trump Jr.'s Russia emails could trigger probe under election law (Reuters)
  • Trump Jr. Emails Fan the Flames of Russia Probe (WSJ)
  • Trump’s Credibility Dealt Blow by His Son’s Emails (BBG)

Frontrunning: July 6

  • EU, Japan Strike New Trade Deal (WSJ)
  • EU-Japan deal sends anti-protectionist signal before G20: German minister (Reuters)
  • Republican lawmaker Steve Scalise's condition worsens after June shooting (Reuters)
  • The Flashpoints for World Leaders at G-20 Summit (BBG)
  • Leftist protesters vow to disrupt G20 summit in Hamburg (Reuters)

Bill Blain: "What A Fascinating Week This Is Shaping Up To Be"

"The next crisis is more likely to stem from the last in terms of unintended consequences. Over inflated financial asset bubbles (caused largely by the actions of central bankers - QE), will be front and centre. Sure, we can point to synchronised growth across the globe, but the real issues of confidence are under stress."

Barclays, Former CEO Criminally Charged Over Qatar Fundraising

Two familiar names are in the news this morning, after the UK's Serious Fraud Office filed criminal charges against Barclays Plc and four former executives, including former CEO John Varley, for conspiracy to commit fraud regarding the bank’s 2008 capital raising from Qatar.

Frontrunning: June 19

  • UK PM May says attack on Muslims near mosque is 'sickening' (Reuters)
  • Macron Under Pressure to Deliver as French Turnout Plummets (BBG)
  • Market Volatility Has Vanished Around the World (WSJ)
  • Real victory will be in 5 years, says Macron camp after election win (Reuters)
  • Brexit Talks Kick Off in Brussels as May Urged to Soften Stance (BBG)

S&P Futures At Record High After "Shocking" UK Election Result

"Triple Threat Thursday" is now a distant memory, with both the ECB and Comey testimony "non-events" for the market, although the UK general election was a shocker in which contrary to expectations, Theresa May lost her majority in Parliament, sending sterling tumbling overnight and prompting even more confusion about the UK's political fate and the future of Brexit.