UK Government Study Finds: If Nothing Is Done, Expect Civilizations' Collapse By 2040

We ran the model forward to the year 2040, along a business-as-usual trajectory based on ‘do-nothing’ trends - that is, without any feedback loops that would change the underlying trend. The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.

Frontrunning: June 5

  • Europe shares set for worst week of 2015 (Reuters)
  • Jobs Report Not Likely to Trigger June Rate Hike (Hilsenrath)
  • U.S. jobs market seen firming despite lackluster growth (Reuters)
  • Gross Says Bond Rout Scary as Hell Even Without Bear Market (BBG)
  • Apple Is the New Pimco, and Tim Cook Is the New King of Bonds (BBG), which ZH said in 2013
  • In 'year of Apple Pay', many top retailers remain skeptical (Reuters)
  • OPEC Nations Signal Few Prospects for Oil-Production Change (BBG)
  • China regulator says amending rules on margin trading, short selling  (Reuters)

Frontrunning: June 4

  • China stocks fall, led by ChiNext, on margin tightening; Hong Kong down too (Reuters)
  • Bond market sell-off rumbles on, stocks feel the pinch (Reuters)
  • Bond Rout Wipes Out 2015 Gains as Traders Stay Glued to Screens (BBG)
  • Greek Groundhog Day Continues With Talks Failing to Break Impasse (BBG)
  • Greece and Its Creditors Agree on Some Measures in Bailout Talks (WSJ)
  • 'Bellingcat Report Doesn't Prove Anything': Expert Criticizes Allegations of Russian MH17 Manipulation (Spiegel)
  • GE Said to Hire Banks to Start Sale on $20 Billion Assets (BBG)
  • Alibaba Pictures plans $1.6bn share sale (FT)
  • How Companies Justify Big Pay Raises for CEOs (BBG)

Goldman Sachs Rookie Analyst Almost Escaped Before Falling To His Death

Taibbi called Goldman "a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity." This time, their victim was Sarvshreshth Gupta, a rookie analyst just 22 years old from the University of Pennsylvania. Gupta was found dead in a parking lot next to his apartment building on the corner of Sacramento Street and Brooklyn Place in San Francisco. He apparently fell from the building.After working 100 hours a week, he told his father, "This job is not for me." In March, he quit. However, like the crazy woman in Fatal Attraction, Goldman was not going to be ignored.

Frontrunning: June 2

  • Greece, creditors exchanging documents to reach deal - Commission (Reuters)
  • Greece’s Creditors Reach Consensus on Proposal to Athensa (WSJ)
  • Greece calls on lenders to accept 'realistic' plan sent on Monday (Reuters)
  • Hundreds missing, many elderly tourists, after ship capsizes on China's Yangtze (Reuters)
  • Oil up ahead of OPEC meeting as dollar slips (Reuters)
  • U.S. Met Secretly With Yemen Rebels (WSJ)
  • Euro zone back to inflation as May prices beat forecast (Reuters)
  • Patients Get Extreme to Obtain Hepatitis Drug That's 1% the Cost Outside U.S. (BBG)

Frontrunning: May 18

  • Tsipras Endgame Nears as Greek Bank Collateral Evaporates (BBG)
  • Shi'ite forces ordered to deploy after fall of Iraqi city (Reuters)
  • Ratings agency Fitch to downgrade many European banks (Reuters)
  • Bubble Blowing to Continue So Long as Yellen Isn’t Raising Rates (BBG)
  • Greece's Debt Battle Exposes Deeper Eurozone Flaws (WSJ)
  • Obama to set new limits on police use of military equipment (Reuters)
  • China April home prices fuel hopes of bottoming out, but long road to recovery (Reuters)
  • Hedge Funds Close Doors, Facing Low Returns and Investor Scrutiny (NYT)
  • ASIC's Greg Medcraft 'quite worried' about Sydney, Melbourne house prices (Fin Review)

Frontrunning: May 15

  • The fake: Avon-Offer Hoax Shows It’s Easy to Put One Over on SEC’s Edgar (BBG)
  • And the real: US buyout group TPG snaps up UK discounter Poundworld (FT)
  • El Niño near-certain to last through summer: U.S. climate center (Reuters)
  • Oil Sands Land Becomes Alberta’s Hot Real Estate as Oil Rebounds (BBG)
  • SEC a stumbling block in banks' forex guilty pleas: sources (Reuters)
  • Pimco’s Stocks Chief Maisonneuve to Leave as Funds Closed (BBG)
  • Bank of America’s Woes Test ‘Fixer’ CEO (WSJ)
  • Puerto Rico Governor, Lawmakers Agree on Revenue Proposal (BBG)

Frontrunning: May 8

  • Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage resign as Tories sweep to victory (Telegraph)
  • Bonds and stocks rebound, sterling soars after UK election (Reuters)
  • Cameron Set to Return With U.K. Majority as SNP Sweeps Scotland (BBG)
  • Tory win brings marked EU exit risk (Reuters)
  • Why did Labour lose this election? It never tried to win it (Telegraph)
  • Stock Buybacks Hit New Records (WSJ)
  • Hard Money Comes Easy as Wall Street Funds Home Flippers (BBG)
  • Justice Department to Investigate Baltimore Police (WSJ)
  • Saudi Arabia mulling land operations on Yemen border (Reuters)

Futures Flat As Global Markets Closed For May Day

Holidays in Europe and Asia left things quiet overnight after some traders used the last day of April to frontrun the old "sell in May and go away" market adage. Market closures also kept the Chinese day trading hordes from using a tiny beat on the official manufacturing PMI print as an excuse to pile more money into the country's equity mania, while Japanese shares ended mostly unchanged as investors fret over when the BoJ will deliver the next shot of monetary heroin. In the US we'll get a look at ISM manufacturing and the latest read on consumer confidence as we head into the weekend.

Frontrunning: April 27

  • Nepal earthquake toll crosses 3700 (Reuters)
  • Greeks Add Pressure on Tsipras to Compromise as Talks Resume (BBG)
  • With No Deal on Greek Bailout Aid in Sight, Some in Europe Suggest ‘Plan B’ (WSJ)
  • BOJ Shouldn’t Ease Further; Yen Fell Enough: Business Lobby Head (BBG)
  • Clinton Foundation admits making mistakes on taxes (Reuters)
  • Here’s the Old Nemesis Starting to Spook Bond Traders Again (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank to Trim Investment Banking (WSJ)
  • China’s Stocks Rise to Seven-Year High on SOE Merger Speculation (BBG)

Frontrunning: April 21

  • The Fed Still Wants Easy Money (BBG) - you don't say
  • ECB Is Studying Curbs on Greek Bank Support (BBG)
  • Banks Paid to Borrow as Three-Month Euribor Drops Below Zero (BBG)
  • Baoding Tianwei is first state-owned Chinese enterprise to default (Reuters)
  • Major Chinese Developer Says It Can’t Pay Dollar Debts (BBG)
  • Wall Street Has No Idea How Much Money Venezuela Has (BBG)
  • Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Find Different Paths to Profits (WSJ)
  • Does the Collapse of a Chinese Developer Signal the Start of More Defaults? (BBG)
  • Retail Traders Wield Social Media for Investing Fame (WSJ)