Following yesterday's abysmal employment and service data which led to an unchanged close it quite clear that the market has returned to a mode where it ignores all newsflow - at least the bad, which is due to the weather, the good news is due to the recovery - and instead is simply driven by such "fundamental drivers" as the momentum and position of the Yen carry trade. And overnight the USDJPY positively exploded following news that the Japan advisory committee has decided the nation's pension fund, the GPIF, does' t need a domestic bond focus. Implicitly this means that the GPIF will soon be able to purchase stocks like Facebook and Tesla, which is a guaranteed way of generated short-term gains and longer-term total losses for the Japanese pensioners. Of course, when the latter happens, nobody will have been able to foresee it and some scapegoat somewhere will be summarily fired. As for what this means for futures, the drift higher has made SPOOs rise once more and at last check was just below if not at new all time highs on an ongoing barrage of increasingly negative macro news.
In a wide-ranging interview with Xinhua, the Chinese finance minister Lou Jiwei started from the normal fantasy-land of central-planners by noting that the topic of a Chinese hard-landing "was not discussed at the G-20," because "no participant believes in the existence of that risk." Commenting on calls for the Chinese to launch new stimulus (to save the world's economy), Lou admonished the other nations, adding "I suggest they fulfill their own due work rather than counting mainly on others." He remained adamant that China is still growing and creating jobs but fears what everyone else fears: "The global market will sustain negative impact should the Fed fail to interact properly with other components of the market." In other words, "get to work, Mr. Bernanke, and don't remove the punchbowl," because as Lou notes, "some countries are overly optimistic on their outlooks."
- MSM always "ahead" of the curve: Fed’s Messages Raise Volatility in Threat to Profits (BBG)
- Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed Moves (WSJ)
- Draghi to Carney Face Test Backing Guidance on Rates (BBG)
- House Republicans Vote to Delay Obamcare Mandates (Reuters)
- China media accuses Japan PM of dangerous politics (Reuters)
- China will replace America as the leading superpower, global attitudes survey finds (SCMP)
- Nonqualified mortgages make up as much as $1.5 trillion of the $10 trillion home-loan market (BBG)
- Dell $24.4 Billion Buyout Plan Is a Nail-Biter as Vote Looms (BBG)
- Republicans could see more bruising Senate primaries (Reuters)
- GM delays Chevy Cruze debut by a year (Reuters)
- Peltz needs support for PepsiCo restructuring dealsa (FT)
- Sweaty Wall Streeters Skip Booze for Spin-Class Meetings (BBG)
Risk assets are not quite (yet) back to the ‘melt-up' of May but equity markets are trading in a confident mood after Bernanke caused sentiment to flip from glass ‘half empty' to ‘half full'. China Q2 GDP data did not derail price action as equity futures anticipate a positive start of the week. The semi-annual testimony of the Fed Chairman is typically a seminal event on the market calendar but do we dare say that the one coming up this week is a non-event following last week's message on policy accommodation? The VIX index dropped 7 points over the last three weeks of which 2 points alone came last Thursday and Friday as stocks roared to new highs and shrugged off the candid observation on the Chinese economy by finance minister Lou Jiwei. If a 6.5% growth rate is tolerable in the future, there is little doubt that commodities and the AUD have further to fall. Chinese GDP slowed from 7.7% to 7.5% according to data released overnight and prospects for the second half don't look much brighter after evidence of slowing credit growth. Data on Friday showed declines of narrow money from 11.3% yoy to 9.1% in May, with broad money growth slowing to 14% yoy. Non-bank credit and new foreign currency bank lending also weakened.
When it comes to economic data, in China whatever the Politburo's Goalseek.xls model says is what goes, and credibility - especially in the context of a historic CNY1 trillion deleveraging - is irrelevant. But one reason why today's GDP print is even more irrelevant than ever, is becuase as Xia Bin, an economist with the State Council's Development Research Center and government advisor, said "Arguments about whether China will grow at 7% or 7.5% are "pointless" because the economy is already in a financial crisis which may only worsen if the government doesn't address the country's crippling debt problem."
When Bloomberg blasts headlines like this: S&P FUTURES UP 1PT, AT SESSION HIGH, ERASE EARLIER 3.4PT DROP, you know Bernanke hasn't spoken in over 24 hours if a 4 point swing is headline worthy. That said, the exhausted S&P ramp is now going for the 6th consecutive session as all the losses since the June FOMC meeting have now been erased, the S&P is making constant all time highs, and seemingly the Fed's message on tapering and communication has been clarified. The message being that the Fed is tapering its monthly purchases but short-term rates aren't being lifted. Sadly, the market's first reaction was the right one but the herd of cats has once again been herded by the trading desk at Liberty 33.
- Obama-Romney: Breaking the Tie (BBG)
- Fiscal cliff looms over campaign climax (FT)
- Tough Calls on Deficit Await the Winner (WSJ)
- Election Likely to Leave Housing Unmoved (WSJ)
- Regulator Investigating Rochdale Trading (WSJ)
- Greeks Plan Strikes On Eve of Votes (WSJ)
- China Communists consider internal democratic reform (Reuters)
- Wen urges Asia-Europe co-op to promote world economy (China Daily)
- Italy Said to Reject Bad Bank That May Boost Ties to Sovereign (BBG)
- IMF warning adds to French economy fears (FT)
- Europe, Central Bank Spar Over Athens Aid (WSJ)
- Unlimited Lending May Help Weaken the Yen, BOJ Official Says (BBG)
- PBOC Official Says U.S. Election Won’t Impact Yuan Level (BBG) - Just the USD level to which it is pegged
In case one is wondering what lit a fire under the EURUSD and the ES' ass in the past 30 minutes, why it is the trusty old fall back - China, to which all algos respond every single time like stung donkeys as if on command. Because just as the EURUSD was about to retrace the lows as the realization that the EOD rumor was nothing but an infrared herring, something else had to step in an continue to rumor-based levitation. Sure enough, that something was the Chinese central bank.
- CHINA PBOC'S ZHOU SAYS HE'S CONFIDENT EU WILL SOLVE CRISIS: MNI
- CHINA PBOC'S ZHOU SAYS HE SUPPORTS EU, ECB MEASURES: MNI
- PBOC'S ZHOU: CHINA WILL PARTICIPATE IN RESOLVING EU DEBT CRISIS
- CHINA PBOC GOVERNOR ZHOU SAYS HE HAS CONFIDENCE IN EURO: MNI
And that's all it took to life the ES by over 10 points in minutes.
The market has become dominated by rumors. The primary rumor is of China supporting Europe. We saw similar rumors in 2008 for Wall Street banks. Those purchases all resulted in massive losses for the funds in question. And yet we are seeing similar rumors inciting large rallies in stocks today, this time the rumors pertaining to China and Japan buying Europe.
Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More BubblesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/31/2009 08:15 -0500
"Both China and America are addressing bubbles by creating more bubbles and we're just taking advantage of that. So we can't lose." - Lou Jiwei, Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund