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"We Have Reached The Point That Keynes Warned Of In His General Theory"

"We have arguably reached the point that Keynes warned of in his General Theory where demand for money and credit to satisfy what he labeled “non-speculative” motives has been more than satisfied...  At this point it is likely central bankers are “pushing on a string,” positively affecting prices for the financial markets’ flavor of the month but doing nothing for actual economic activity."

Something Unexpected Emerges In China's Latest Money And Credit Data

China's corporate bond market, one of the fastest growing sources of cheap credit, did something in May it hasn't done in in six years: it shrank.  And then there was the record contraction in banker's acceptance bills, a pseudo currency used by companies for payments that have been the subject of several instances of massive fraud. Hopes for a big credit push are again being dashed.

Goldman Finds That China's Debt Is Far Greater Than Anyone Thought

"The trend of China’s leverage has probably deteriorated faster than we previously thought... Compared to our previous estimates, the experience in 2015 suggests that the economy’s dependence on credit has deepened significantly and that it likely needs sizeable flow of credit on a persistent basis to maintain a stable level of growth...Such a scale of deterioration certainly increases our concerns about China’s underlying credit problems and sustainability risk. The possibility that there is such a large amount of shadow lending going on in the system... underscores the lack of visibility on where potential financial stress points may lie and how a possible contagion may play out."

China Is The Biggest Short...Ever

As simply put as possible... over the next 2 decades, there will be an average of 7.5 million fewer 0-55yr/old Chinese every year vs. an average annual increase of 9.5 million 55+yr/olds. And the wealthy minority of the elderly have stashed their reserves in a whole lot of expensive, vacant real estate that they intend to pass along (rent or sell) to the declining young population.  What could go wrong since housing prices only go up...right!?!

Saudi Officials Crackdown On FX Market As Currency Peg Starts To Strain

As we warned previously, the devaluation, or breaking of the Saudi Riyal peg to the dollar, could be the black swan event for crude oil and the recent weakness in SAR forwards - while not as violent as Nigeria's Naira - certainly signals a renewed market fear that breaking the peg is imminent. It appears Saudi officials are none too pleased with the free markets speculating on this devaluation and as Bloomberg reports, banks in Saudi Arabia are coming under fresh pressure over products that allow speculators to bet against the kingdom’s currency peg, according to people with knowledge of the matter, which were supposedly banned in January.

Futures Flat Despite China Scare As Oil Rebounds Over $47

The main risk over the weekend was that markets, which have now dropped for three consecutive weeks the longest negative streak since January, would focus their attention on the latest batch of negative Chinese economic news released over the weekend, which missed expectations across the board, most prominently in Retail Sales and Industrial Production, and following Friday's disappointing new credit loan data, would sell off as the Chinese slowdown once again becomes a dominant concern. However, after some initial weakness, the risks were all but gone when first the USDJPY jumped on another round of deflationary Japanese economic data which led to renewed hopes of more BOJ easing and a jump in the USDJPY and thus US futures.

China's Credit Growth Grinds To A Screeching Halt: Why This Is Very Important

The biggest concern for China, and the world, is that now that China's credit impulse is gone, it means that the it is only a matter of time before the impetus behind Chinese, and global growth, evaporates as per the timeline persented in the following Goldman chart, which explained the surge in Q1 economic activity, and which now anticipates a steep slowdown in the second and subsequent quarters unless China manages to stoke its unsustainable credit growth once again.

Futures Rebound As Crude Regains $45 On Canada Fears; Turkey Hammered

While markets remain relatively subdued ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report, after several days of losses in US stocks which pushed the S&P500 to three week lows, overnight markets ignored the latest weak data out of China where the Caixin Services PMI was the latest indicator to disappoint (dropping from 52.2 to 51.8), and instead focused on crude, which rebounded from yesterday's post inventory-build lows and briefly printed above $45/bbl over uncertainty related to the impact of Canada wildfires on production and how long will last. The bounce in WTI has meant Brent briefly traded at parity with West Texas for the first time in 6 weeks. 

Fighting Recessions With Hot Air

Krugman is wrong. An economic boom, based on nothing but hot air (phony credit, with no real resources behind it), is fraudulent. It will never take us to real growth. Just the contrary. The best thing to do is to pop the bubble…and then pick up the pieces. Besides, it will pop whether we want it to or not. Heck, we believe in magic as much as the next guy. But the magic act is wearing a little thin. The smoke is dispersing. The rabbits have disappeared. All the glam and sparkle, the shock and awe, the claptrap and hokum they’re all giving way to economic reality. We are beginning to see more clearly: the Fed’s theory is nothing but hot air.

$1,001,000,000,000: China Just Flooded Its Economy With A Record Amount Of New Debt

If one adds up the Total Social Financing injected in the first quarter, one gets a stunning $1 trillion dollars in new credit, or $1,001,000,000,000 to be precise, shoved down China's economic throat. As shown on the chart below, this was an all time high in dollar terms, and puts to rest any naive suggestion that China may be pursuing "debt reform."

Futures Fade As Chinese "Good News Is Bad News" For Fed, Oil Drops As Doha Concerns Emerge

Good news is still bad news after all. After last night's China 6.7% GDP print which while the lowest since Q1 2009, was in line with expectations, coupled with beats in IP, Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales (on the back of $1 trillion in total financing in Q1)  the sentiment this morning is that China has turned the corner (if only for the time being). And that's the problem, because while China was a good excuse for the Fed to interrupt its rate hike cycle as the biggest "global" threat, that is no longer the case if China has indeed resumed growing. As such Yellen no longer has a ready excuse to delay. This is precisely why futures are lower as of this moment, because suddenly the "scapegoat" narrative has evaporated.

Europe Remains Stuck In Deflation For Second Month

The last time Europe had at least two consecutive months of deflation was in late 2014/early 2015 when the ECB launched its sovereign QE, and when prices staged a modest rebound into the rest of the year. One year later, it's more of the same, and as Eurostat revealed earlier today, after a headline price drop of -0.2% in February, March prices declined once more, this time by -0.1% in line with expectations, driven by a -8.7% plunge in energy prices.

After January Scramble, Chinese Lending Collapses

After January's record-smashing CNY3.4 trillion (half a trillion dollars!) surge in aggregate credit expansion in China, the post-lunar-new-year hangover hit hard in February as credit growth tumbled 77% from Janaury's level to just CNY780 ($112bn). This is the weakest February loan growth since 2011. Drastically missing expectations, and following authorities comments on the need to "monitor" excess credit growth, all categories of total social finance registered a sharp drop... which as Goldman warns, means China's GDP growth target will be "challenging."