M2

While the market appears to be happy with promises for incremental crude output by Saudi Arabia which has now broken off from the broader OPEC cartel and is doing its own pro-US thing, JPMorgan, which at last check still had a Brent target of $130/bbl, once again introduces an unpleasant dose of reality in the crude story by noting that any increase in crude output by the rogue OPEC state may be offset by production drops in Iraq and Iran. Will Saudi now promise to offset even that drop and hike output to 11 mbd or some other more unbelievable number? Stay tuned for more lies from the "peak oiled" kingdom.

In an indication of the prevailing popular mood among the key marginal economic force in China - its migrant worker population - hundreds of protesters rioted in the southern China city of Gunaghzou after a young pregnant street hawker was harassed by security guards, media reports said Monday. From Reuters: "Hong Kong television showed seething crowds of migrant workers from the southwestern province of Sichuan running through the streets of Zengcheng, smashing windows, setting fire to government buildings and overturning police vehicles. Riot police were shown firing tear gas Sunday night, deploying armoured vehicles to disperse the crowds and handcuffing protesters. Witnesses said there were more than 1,000 protesters and at least one government office had been besieged. "People were running around like crazy," a shopowner in the area told the South China Morning Post newspaper. "I had to shut the shop by 7 p.m. and dared not come out." While China reported slowing monetary conditions, with a miss in both the M2 and loan issuance in May, it is unclear what the Chinese equivalents of Bernanke's 15 minutes to Inflation: OFF is: as a reminder the upcoming CPI print is expected to come at a record 5.5%, which is the only piece of data that truly matters in China. If inflation continues its runaway rise, whether due to climatic conditions, or importing Bernanke's monetary policies, expect to see many more stories of violent popular unrest.

Goldman Sachs summarizes the just released monetary update from China, which some expected could announce a formal rate hike over the weekend.

Key takeaways:

• May monetary data confirms our understanding that there was no loosening of monetary policy in May.
• We believe policy makers will maintain a tight policy stance at least for another month from now.
• We expect a normalization of monetary policy (not an aggressive loosening as in 2H2010) in 2H2011 when inflation is expected to moderate.

What happened:

• Commercial banks extended Rmb551.6 billion in loans in May (market consensus: Rmb650 billion), down from Rmb739.6 billion in April. Outstanding CNY loans grew by 17.1% yoy in May (our forecast: 17.1% yoy, market consensus: 17.2% yoy), down from 17.5% yoy in April. The mom; s.a. ann. growth rose to 16.7%, up from 10.6% in April.
• M2 growth came in at 15.1% yoy (market consensus: 15.5% yoy), down from 15.3% yoy in April. The mom; s.a. ann. growth rose to 14.3%, up from 3.6% in April.

These are serious challenges Beijing’s now facing and seems to lack adequate policy tools to tackle...Hedge funds and Fed’s QE2 are not all to blame for all these. The Chinese economy already stands close to the edge. What speculators do is to push it over and profiteer handsomely from the chaos. While the US enjoys the luxury provided by the dollar’s world currency status and diplomatic alliance with many major trade partners to export its liquidity and inflation, China enjoys none of that. They should look at the dollars in their hands with fear and doubt. So called Beijing consensus makes little sense, because the world is fast changing, pegging a country’s growth to a certain set of policy tools or a certain reserve currency(the US dollar) is equally dangerous. The battle between Keynes and Friedman has long proven the only consensus is to adapt and change. Right now China needs to adapt and change fast. Or this will be the best time in history to short China.

More bad news for China's stagflating economy: according to an industry group, China automobile sales dropped for the second month in a row in May, pointing to slowing demand after Beijing stopped offering incentives and introduced new limits on car purchases earlier this year. "Vehicle sales in China shed 13.95 percent on-month to 1.19 million last month, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said. It was a 29.74 percent increase compared to the same month last year. Auto output fell 14.36 percent from a month earlier to about 1.31 million units in May. The industry group attributed the continued decline in May sales to the end of the tax breaks and incentive policies in the country. The Chinese government ended tax breaks for purchases of small cars at the end of 2010 and reimposed a 10 percent tax at the beginning of this year. The tax breaks, introduced in 2009 to buoy domestic demand amid the economic slowdown, had boosted China's auto market and helped it overtake the United States as the world's largest in 2009 and 2010." This is yet another piece of bad news for GM, for whom China has recently become the dominant market (even as it stuff US dealers with record amount of inventory), and since the company has been unable to take advantage of the supply disruptions that have crippled Japanese car makers, expect to see GM stock take its current post-IPO low stock price even lower. "Wang Qingtao, analyst at China's Sealand Securities Co., expected the downward trend in the Chinese auto industry would likely continue for a while, saying "the market fundamentals are not likely to change drastically." And in the meantime, Goldman now anticipates China's May inflation to hit 5.5% Y/Y, the highest such increase in years, and the Stagflationary economy continues overheating, this time due to surging food prices as a result of the record drought previously discussed.

This article discusses the current path our economy is taking. While most economists believe the Q1 GDP stumble was a temporary blip in an ongoing recovery, I believe it is the beginning of a downward trend of economic stagnation and inflation. The root of this is the Fed's attempts to inflate the economy into recovery.

The recent correction in the commodities markets may be providing Bernake, Geithner and their easy money acolytes with a sense of relief given the relentless run up in prices of raw materials since the announcement of QE back in 2008, but they should not sleep tight just yet. As anyone in the markets will tell you, when any underlying has a price move so vertical in its trajectory it’s bound to face a correction as the smart money, having gotten in for fundamental reasons much earlier along the trend line now wait for the panic buyers or the Johnny-come-lately’s to give the rally that last unsustainable spike to unload their longs and leave the suckers holding $40.00 silver in their purses. So one must step back and take a long view. Although it would appear that those of us who warn that inflation is not just a threat but very much a fact of life now were knee-jerk pontificators jumping on the commodities rally trend for political (read: Fed/Obama bashing) reasons, the analysis is quite sound. Most important, it is methodical not emotional as price surges tend to make investors and analysts from time to time. Here are some facts: even with the inevitable correction in commodities, as of this writing crude oil is 35% more expensive than it was a year ago…advancing with ups and downs along the way from as low as $17.50/bbl in November of 2001 to its current level of over $100/bbl or around a 19% annual appreciation in a decade since the Fed started giving away dollars. Silver 93% Wheat 84% Cotton 100% Coffee 55% Cattle 10% etc etc. Gold is up 22% for the year. More revealing, it is up an astonishing 450% since 2001. In that same decade the USD index against all currencies shed 40% of its value.

Summary of takeaways:

• Activity growth was weak though there are some uncertainties in terms of how weak it is.
• The moderation in M2 and power shortages were the likely drivers of the slowdown.
• CPI came in slightly above our and market consensus forecasts, but it nevertheless represented a sequential moderation.

Gold and silver continue to rebound from their sell offs as Euro zone periphery worries intensify with real risks of defaults and possible contagion. Gold has risen from €1,010/oz to over €1,057/oz since Friday. The long period of correction and consolidation may soon see a break out above resistance at record nominal highs of €1,072/oz - less than 1.5% below the current price. The recent strength of the euro looks set to end as sovereign debt risks come to the fore again. This will likely see the euro fall versus most currencies and especially against gold. There has been the usual misinformed and non evidence based assertions that the gold and silver markets were ‘bubbles’ and that they have burst. The same simplistic assertions were made after the sharp price corrections seen in 2008 and were proven badly wrong.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times....This time is different.....There is nothing new under the sun.....All of us---by “us” I mean human beings---tend to think too much with our egos and not enough with our rational minds. When we are young, we think we have unique and novel insight into life and the human condition, as if we are the first person to have ever thought certain thoughts. We all read---at least back when I went to school---the classic literature, the Greek playwrights and Shakespeare, but it is only when we reread these works as adults that we realize that everything has been thought of before. The best we can do is put a slight sidespin on it. We are humbled. We bring this same tendency---a belief in our uniqueness---into the issues that face our time on Earth. “There has never been a better time to be alive.”...." This is all going to blow up faster than most people think, and it is TEOTWAWKI.”....Somewhere in the middle probably lies the truth. Many of us---myself included time to time---fear that life as we know it is about to come to an abrupt and painful end. Others---most visibly those who are wheeled out as guests on CNBC---think things are on a rise as far as the eye can see. And for some---I am thinking John Paulson and David Tepper---times have never been better. Who is right? Maybe nobody.

Most of the clearly evident financial problems that surround us today stem from one cause - Debt Saturation. Most, intuitively, sense this to be a correct assessment but few can either prove it or articulate it to the less sophisticated. Let me arm you to be the "Nostradamus" amongst your friends and colleagues in explaining the problem and what the future therefore foretells. However, let me make it very clear, this will not make you popular. Smart maybe, but highly likely to make you unwanted at the social gatherings of the genteel.... In your new role as 'Nostradamus' to your friends you can safely predict a decade ahead to be a secular bear market in financial assets, in real terms. Nominal values may not show this clearly but it will be very evident in the reduced standard of living most Americans will experience. You are going to have to work harder and harder, for less and less to survive at a lower and lower standard of living. This will all be required to support the annual $9T debt bondage we have assumed as our politicos add additional 'stimulus' to a suffocating and debt saturated global economy.

And neither is a little accounting fraud, a little control fraud, or a little Ponzi scheme...

There is some money which is printed, but does not make it into the money supply. Consider the scenario that the Fed prints a dollar that is then either lost or destroyed. It then cannot be used to buy goods, or be lent out and thus does not create inflation. There is something else which can happen to our money which has the same net effect. Foreign central banks can take cash printed from the Fed and place it on their balance sheet. US dollars on foreign banks balance sheets gives investors confidence that their own currency will not be debased. In other words, the real threat of inflation is not the current printing of money which Bernanke et al have been doing. It is the previous printing of money which has been taken out of circulation. The threat is as great as its ever been. The amount of money in foreign reserves is about one third or more of M2, or every dollar which is held by US bank account (business or retail), and all currency combined.

And just in time to follow up on our previous post about the Chinese real estate bubble pop which speculated that PBoC tightening is over, here comes Goldman confirming that the tightening in the world's fastest growing economy is now over. To wit, from Yu Song Helen Qiao: "There was a clear loosening of monetary conditions in March, despite possible distortions to March monetary data because of various end-of-the-quarter examinations at commercial banks. This loosening of monetary conditions was contributed by a combination of i) more bank lending; ii) change to fiscal deposits; and iii) more FX inflows." So China, which is about to report 5.4% CPI (per a Phoenix TV leak, more shortly) is willing to take the political risk of loosening even as it has been working hard to suppress the Jasmine revolution. And yet people still believe the Fed will not recommence loosening (and with ZIRP that leaves only acronym option) as soon as the marginal credit bubble pops heard around the world (not to mention the supply chain effects from Japan crunch US margins) resonate until they hit the US ten-fold. On the other hand a Chinese loosening, no matter the political risks, is possibly Bernanke's last ditch attempt to export marginal money printing, together with Japan which will soon find that another round of QE is inevitable. Alas, with Europe tightening, the US will be the marginal variable yet again. Just like in China, Expect a few month break between QE2 and QE3 at best.

The barrage of Fed commentary in the coming week could keep the debate over the future of Fed policy in the spotlight, as will the US PPI and CPI data that will be out toward the end of the week. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to climb, with Brent sitting firmly above $120/bbl. Elsewhere, there is a deluge of China macro data on Friday, where we expect inflation to pick-up a touch and activity to remain reasonably solid. The trade data out on Sunday posted a tiny surplus. Import and export growth both improved substantially and were stronger than expected; however, we must be mindful of Chinese New Year effects. On the monetary policy front, we and the consensus expect BoK, BI, and BoC to keep rates unchanged, though the MAS is likely to re-center the SGD NEER.