M3

Traders Paralyzed, Markets Flat Ahead Of Today's Main Event: The ECB's Taper Announcement

US equity futures and Asian shares are flat this morning with European shares treading water ahead of the ECB's policy meeting in which it’s expected to announce a tapering to its €60bn in monthly QE. On this busiest day of Q3 earnings season, companies set to report earnings include Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Intel, while we also get data on jobless claims and wholesale inventories.

Key Events In The Coming Week: ECB Taper, Q3 GDP And Durables

The main even this week will be the ECB's taper announcement on Thursday where consensus expects the ECB to announce a QE extension of €30bn per month for 9 month until Sep-18, with potential extension after. Net purchases between now and Dec-17 will continue at €60bn per month as planned. To cope with rate hike expectations, the ECB is also expected to strengthen forward guidance.

Eric Peters On Tipping Points: "It All Worked Incredibly Well, Until It Blew Up"

"As a measure of market fear, it was quite useful, until it became something that could be traded. "The sheer size of outstanding positions in VIX futures, VIX options, ETFs, ETNs and bank volatility selling programs is such that those trading these markets can no longer separate the true measure of volatility from their own actions."

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Odds Soar After WSJ Report Of Trump Meeting

Kevin Warsh's PredictIt odds to be the next Fed chair soared moments ago after the WSJ reported that President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met with the former Fed governor on Thursday to discuss his potential nomination as the next Federal Reserve chairman.

Global Bond Rout Accelerates Even As Dollar Rally Fizzles

In a continuation of trading patterns observed over the previous two days, on Thursday the global bond rout deepened in the aftermath of the release of President Trump’s tax-cut plan, Janet Yellen's recent hawkish comments and renewed optimism over the health of the U.S. economy.

Dollar Surges, Bonds Dump Ahead Of Trump Tax Plan

S&P futures are set for a higher open (+ 0.1%) despite the expected hit to the Dow from Nike, as European stocks gain while Asian shares dropped. Like yesterday when the big story was the jump in the USD ahead of Yellen's (rather hawkish) speech, so today the greenback's levitation has continued, this time propelled by the imminent unveiling of Trump's tax plan.

Global Stocks Mixed After "Nightmare Victory" For Merkel; Chinese Property Developers Crash

European stocks rose as the euro tumbled following Germany’s election result which was dubbed a "Nightmare Victory" for Merkel and could lead to complicated coalition talks. U.S. equity-index futures point to a lower open, while Asian equities slide after a plunge in Chinese property developer names as well as tech stocks following more iPhone delivery concerns. S&P500 futures are steady. 

Watch Live: Mario Draghi Explains How Great Europe's Doing (& Why You Should Sell The Euro)

The last few weeks have seen anescalation in the leaks and comments aimed at jawboning the Euro lower, despite crowing about the success of The ECB's program to save the EU and its inability to decide whether 'enough is enough' for 'whatever it takes' policy. A day after Europe's largest commercial bank tells him to pull the plug on easy money, or face the consequences, we await Mario Draghi's press conference to explain it all (or not)...

Norway’s Big Fish Story

The greatest consequences of Nordic socialism are how it instills a lack of courage and imagination when facing global problems. For such a system to work, people must be mostly compliant and amicable. Currently, Norway can manage the economic shift by drawing from The Fund but I would hope that they want to do more than just get by. It is obvious that betting on fish is a bad idea.

Key Events In The Coming Week: Payrolls, Core PCE, GDP, ISM And More

After last week's relatively quiet economic calendar and focus on Central Banks, attention this week turns back to data. In a relatively busy data week ahead - particularly for the US - focus will likely be on Friday's NFP, Q2 GDP revision on Wednesday, ISM manufacturing reports on Friday and inflation prints from the Eurozone.