Main Street

We have now entered the fifth year of this Fourth Turning Crisis. George Washington and his troops were barely holding on at Valley Forge during the fifth year of the American Revolution Fourth Turning. By year five of the Civil War Fourth Turning 700,000 Americans were dead, the South left in ruins, a President assassinated and a military victory attained that felt like defeat. By the fifth year of the Great Depression/World War II Fourth Turning, FDR’s New Deal was in place and Adolf Hitler had been democratically elected and was formulating big plans for his Third Reich. The insight from prior Fourth Turnings that applies to 2012 is that things will not improve. They call it a Crisis because the risk of calamity is constant. There is zero percent chance that 2012 will result in a recovery and return to normalcy. Not one of the issues that caused our economic collapse has been solved. The “solutions” implemented since 2008 have exacerbated the problems of debt, civic decay and global disorder. The choices we make as a nation in 2012 will determine the future course of this Fourth Turning. If we fail in our duty, this Fourth Turning could go catastrophically wrong. I pray we choose wisely. Have a great 2012.

One justification for bailing out Wall Street was that it would ultimately help Main Street.  ast time we looked at the diamond price index for 1-ct diamonds. Today we investigate the effects of QE2 on that most Main Street of businesses--the high-end diamond retailer. At the prices quoted, a single diamond of this size would set you back about $110,000. Hopefully she's worth it. There are two significant periods of rising prices--early 2010, and November 2010 to June 2011, during which time prices rose about 30%. The official CPI (excluding food and energy) was 1-2% over the same interval. We note that this last interval corresponds approximately with the timing of QE2, and congratulate the Federal Reserve for aiding Main Street business.

The law has been changed not only to keep the guilty out of jail but to preserve their exorbitant profits and bonuses at the expense of their victims... To do this, the Federal Reserve had to take “extraordinary measures.”

How is the government STILL bailing out the giant banks? Let me count the ways ...

The only thing mirroring the relentless outflow from stocks these days (now in their 23rd week) is the increase in the M2 money supply: the week ending October 4th was the 14th consecutive weekly increase in the broadest money aggregate compiled by the Fed which hit $8,752.4 billion, an increase of $20 billion from the $8,732.8 billion the week before. Curiously, the Fed decided to massively revise all previous numbers (as if the amount of money that goes in and out of a bank, and should be recorded electronically the second it happens is subject to change). Yet the strangest number to come out of the huge revision had to do with with the flow of money in and out of Small Denomination (under $100,000) time deposits, or in other words the place where the bulk of Main Street America parks their money for some pursuit of nominal yield. The kicker - since the beginning of the year there has not been one weekly inflow into small denomination time deposits! (go ahead and check it) It appears either the less than richest Americans need to constantly pull money out of the bank, as they give up yield (and in a Zero Interest Rate environment there is no yield to be given up) in order to pay their bills, or simply have decided to no longer keep their money with the big (and small) banks (as this includes both commercial banks and thrifts). Could the "starve the banks" campaign be working? If Americans succeed in pulling enough money from their banks via deposit redemption, coupled with the stock trading boycott, it will be the end of Wall Street post haste.

For the longest time it was consensus thought that only Wall Street could fuck Main Street. The ride is now turning. After what the FT reports was a 16% decline in fixed income, currencies and commodities trading
revenues for Q2, coupled with advisory revenues down 17%, the bank is now "planning to cut up to several hundred employees following a sharp fall in market activity in the second quarter. Sources close to the bank say that the job losses, which could be announced as early as Wednesday, will be spread across BarCap’s sales and trading staff as well as its back office support functions." Too bad the SEC has not, and will not realize that its only function is to restore the faith of the retail investors in the credibility of the capital markets. Yes, the same retail investor who both on margin and in total has always been the primary driver of stocks. Alas that has not happened and tens of thousands of Wall Streets will soon feel the wrath of Main Street as the boycott of stocks by the broader population comes to fruition, allowing the former "strategists" to experience just how real the difference between the U-3 and U-6 rate is first hand.

In contrast to the cheery mood of the markets, the latest readings from consumers and small business owners indicate economic sentiment isn’t improving. This divergence has got the Wall Street scratching its collective head. In short, the disparity may be deciphered in one word – liquidity - which Wall Street has plenty of, while main street remains strapped.

The SEC / DoJ rewrite witness immunity rules 'to protect investors and the integrity of markets' ... yet, just one week after unilaterally 'updating' said rules, Hank Greenberg, AIG, Warren Buffett, Berkshire and Gen Re are each given a cursory slap on the wrist after the SEC charges General Re for its role in AIG and PRU accounting frauds. Protecting the public from egregiously rampant, market manipulating fraud sounds great; essentially letting Hank Greenberg, AIG, Buffett, Berkshire and Gen Re off the hook for egregiously rampant fraud doesn't look so hot.