Main Street

The dance of the zombies goes on... During the 10 years between 2005 and 2014, these four retailers spent $34 billion on stock buybacks and dividends. But, alas, their cumulative net income during the period was only $13 billion. So they pumped 2.6X more into the casino than they earned! Last week’s tepid retail reports were not only a reminder that QE and ZIRP have by-passed main street entirely. The faltering department store sector is also a reminder that the monumental amount of Fed confected cash pooling-up in the canyons of Wall Street is breeding debt-laden zombies throughout the length and breadth of the land.

If GDP growth only averages 2.0% in the Second Half (which I think is likely), then 2015 growth will only be about 1.7% annually. Given that the Fed didn't raise rates in 2012, 2013, and 2014, when growth was well north of 2%, why would they do so now? Yet Wall Street and the media stubbornly cling to the notion that 3% growth and rate hikes are just around the corner. Old notions die hard, and this one has taken on a life of its own.

A study by the Illinois Policy Institute shows just how dramatic the impact of the so-called "welfare effect" can be. In one of the most startling findings for instance, if a single mother raising two children were to accept a pay raise from $12 to $18 per hour, her total resources would fall by nearly 33%.

What the data does suggest is while the BEA can change the methodology for calculating economic growth, a change in the "math" does not change the "reality."

"What can we do?"

Three months ago, Dan Price had an idea. He would raise the pay floor at his Seatlle-based payments processing company and become a rebel hero to the 120 people who worked for him. This is the story of how one man's unwitting crusade against the disappearance of the American Middle Class went horribly awry.

Our monetary politburo is driving the US economy in the wrong direction. That is, toward dis-employment of its true, wealth-creating economic resources - human labor, entrepreneurial talent and market driven gains in economic factor efficiency. Contrary to this week’s self-congratulatory statement, all is not well and its not getting weller.

"The reality is that business and investment spending are the true leading indicators of the economy and the stock market. If you want to know where the stock market is headed, forget about consumer spending and retail sales figures. Look to business spending, price inflation, interest rates, and productivity gains." The Skousen index suggests that the current economy is significantly weaker than headline statistics state.

There are plenty of 'everyday Americans' out there with perfectly good haircuts, styled by perfectly good hairdressers, in perfectly good Main Street salons... so why is self-proclaimed populist person-of-the-everyday-American Hillary Clinton getting a $600 haircut at Bergdorf Goodman's Fifth Avenue store in NYC?

Why the big slowdown? Why is the world falling apart? Because you can’t fake an economic recovery... Instead of “stimulating” a recovery, the feds have “simulated” one.

"Hillary Clinton will propose a revamp of capital-gains taxes that would hit some short-term investors with higher rates, part of a package of measures designed to prod companies to put more emphasis on long-term growth," WSJ reports. Interested to know who might be pulling the strings behind the scenes? Read on...

"Defendants used electronic chatrooms, instant messaging, and other electronic and telephonic methods to exchange confidential customer information, coordinate trading strategies. Traders at some of these primary dealers talked with counterparts at other banks via online chatrooms and swapped gossip."

The UK has dropped an investigation into a Swiss OTC products broker which allegedly won business from the Ghadafi regime by hosting "no sperm left zone" parties in Morocco. The reason the case was dropped: the firm determined that "the benefits of a successful prosecution will be outweighed by the damage which will be done to it in the course of a prosecution."