Just as was witnessed following “The Great Depression,” the bursting of the next asset bubble will likely once again drive participants away from the market for an entire generation, or longer. The problem for individual investors is the “trap” that is currently being laid between the appearance of strong market dynamics against the backdrop of weak economic and market fundamentals. Ignoring the last two to chase the former has historically not worked out well.
"Watching Jon Snow’s epic “Battle of the Bastards” scene in the penultimate episode of this season’s Game of Thrones gives investors a sense of how it has felt to manage money during some periods over the past year. Surging enemies forming a seemingly impossible perimeter, a crush of fellow soldiers on the field, arrows coming in overhead..."
The “bullish case” is currently built primarily on “hope.”Hope the economy will improve in the second half of the year; Hope that earnings will improve in the second half of the year; Hope that oil prices will trade higher even as supply remains elevated; Hope the Fed will not raise interest rates this year; Hope that global Central Banks will “keep on keepin’ on.” Hope that the US Dollar doesn’t rise; Hope that interest rates remain low; Hope that high-yield credit markets remain stable.
"When I was 16 I was like, I understand a lot about, you know, companies," the "Desperate Housewives" actress told "Good Morning America" co-anchor Amy Robach. "And ... how they IPO on the stock exchange. I had this understanding and know-how. I had the skill of managing money. I have a couple different strategies," she said. "... With other investments, I will definitely pay attention to what's going on in pop culture a lot ... you can often take that information and kind of, arbitrage it before Wall Street knows about it.
Thirteen activist investors with the largest fund exposure to the energy sector have suffered a combined $9.2 billion in unrealized paper losses in 2015, according to quarterly filings analyzed by hedge fund data firm Symmetric.io. But nobody's combined loss is as big as that of Carl Icahn.
Just when traders thought that the biggest and most violent 3-day short squeeze in 7 years was about to end a squeeze that has resulted in 3 consecutve 1%+ sessions for the S&P for the first time since October 2011, overnight we got one of the Fed's biggest faux-hakws, St. Louis Fed's Jim Bullard, who said that it would be "unwise" to continue hiking rates at this moment, and hinted that "if needed", the most natural option for the Fed going forward would be to do further Q.E.
Yesterday, in keeping with what has become a daily tradition, we asked a simple question: "Which hedge fund will close today." It turns out that despite our intention, the question was not rhetorical because just a few hours later Bloomberg answered, when it reported that the latest hedge fund casualty was another iconic, long-term investor: Scott Bommer's SAB Capital, which as of a year ago managed $1.1 billion, and which is now returning all outside money.
Shortly after we reported the latest market-rigging scandal, in which ITG was busted for frontrunning sellside clients in its dark pool in what has been since dubbed a "trading experiment" (because it sounds better than criminal conspiracy to defraud clients), and which will cost the company a record for a private Wall Street firm $22 million settlement, we had one question for AQR's Cliff Asness yesterday morning: "Hi @Cimmerian999, is Hitesh Mittal the AQR employee who was formerly at ITG and is part of the SEC settlement?" We got no answer from the AQR head, but luckily Bloomberg noticed, and as it turns out the answer to our question was a resounding yes.