Mark Spitznagel

Weekend Reading: Losing Faith?

"With President Trump embroiled in one entanglement after another and constrained by a deeply partisan legislature, the ability of the Administration to pass legislative agenda seems to be fading... along with investor 'faith' that they will."

Spitznagel: Why Cryptocurrencies Will Never Be Safe Havens

"Cryptocurrencies are a very important development, and an enormous step in the direction toward the decentralization of monetary power. This has enormously positive potential, and I am a big cheerleader for their success. But caveat emptor - thinking that we are magically creating new stores-of-value and thus a new safe haven is a profound mistake."

Weekend Reading: The Beginning Of The Ending

The only other time in history where the Dow advanced 5000 points over a 24-month period was during the 1998-1999 period of “irrational exuberance” as the Fed was fighting the fears an inflationary advance, while valuations were rising and GDP growth rates were slowing. Maybe it’s just coincidence. Maybe “this time is different.” Or it could just be the inevitable beginning of the ending of the current bull market cycle.

What Is This "Neutral" Interest Rate Touted By The Fed?

To assume experts at the Fed could determine the proper, optimal interest rate, without a competitive discovery process, is to assume away the real-world information problems that we all can agree market prices solve. Indeed, perhaps this is why our economic problems persist?

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Weekend Reading: Copious Cognitions

If this market rally seems eerily familiar, it’s because it is. In fact, the backdrop of the rally reminds me much of what was happening in 1999...

Beware Central Banks' "Illusion Of Control"; Spitznagel Warns "If The Fed Hikes, Markets Will Go Down Very, Very Hard"

"There is this sort of collective psychology that says that the Fed can keep this going, that the Fed is in control. But, in fact, central banks are not in control... Central bank balance sheets are twenty-trillion, the whole global securities and derivatives market is a half-a-quadrillion. So, in fact, central banks are miniscule compared to that. The only thing they have going for them is this collective psychology. It’s an illusion of control."

Has The Market Crash Only Just Begun?

"There is massive cognitive dissonance here... the crash has only just begun... The "let's make a deal" market is choosing monetary interventionism but when that door is slammed open, we will see that dreaded black swan monster."