Market Conditions

Jared Dillian: "The Fed Is More Hawkish Than You Think"

"This is not a good Fed. They aren’t making decisions on a predictive, forward-looking basis. They are very concerned about optics, appearances—how things look. And to them, right now the optics of having Fed funds at 0.375% with unemployment at 5% are very bad. But that isn’t how it’s supposed to work."

The Federal Reserve Is Hillary Clinton's Secret Weapon

Say what you want about Donald J. Trump, but he is correct about one thing: the Federal Reserve has, with near certainty, been holding interest rates down for political purposes - namely, to aid Hillary Clinton in getting elected president of the United States.

Billionaire Clinton "Hillblazer" Pushes New Tax That Funnels Middle Class Money To Wall Street

Wall Street is maneuvering to propose and implement a new retirement tax on Americans under a Hillary Clinton Administration. Leading the charge is billionaire financial oligarch Tony James, who is COO of private equity giant Blackstone. Mr. James is a generous contributor to Hillary Clinton’s Presidential run, and is listed as a “Hillblazer” by her campaign for having raised at least $100,000 toward her candidacy.

Global Stocks Pressured By Weak Earnings, Rate Hike Concerns; Pound Jumps

Global stocks are pressured this morning after a plunge in the Thai stock market and currency on concerns about the king's health and Fed hikes coupled with some more bad news out of Samsung which cut profit estimates by a third, while European stocks are suffering after Swedish telecom giant Ericsson issued a profit warning, sending its shares plunging 17%.

Fed Labor Market Conditions Crash As Rate-Hike Hopes Soar

Having jawboned rate-hike odds up near cycle record highs (December odds at ~70%), The Federal Reserve's Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) is crashing. Following a brief dead cat bounce in July, LMCI is now accelerating lower.

Global Stocks Decline On Samsung Woes; Rising Dollar Pressures Oil

Global markets and US equity futures fell on Samsung Galaxy Note 7 contagion concern, while the dollar rose to its strongest level in 11 weeks and U.S. bonds declined as investors boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Key Events In The Coming Week

In the US focus will be on the market's reaction to the second presidential debate, FOMC Minutes but also retail sales, import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment. We also hear from various Fed speakers throughout the week, and Chair Yellen gives a keynote speech on Friday.

How Do We Create Value When Knowledge Is Almost Free?

How do we create value in an economy that is increasingly dependent on knowledge? The answer is complicated by the reality that knowledge is increasingly digital and "unownable" and therefore almost free. Financialization as a substitute for creating value has run its course.

Dangerous Bubbles In Plain Sight

Relative to disposable income, the value of household financial assets now far exceeds the last two bubble peaks. And that has happened in an economic environment which suggests just the opposite. To wit, valuation multiples and cap rates should be falling owing the fact that the productivity and growth capacity of the US economy has been heading south ever since the turn of the century. So here’s the danger...

The QE Premium

" be blunt, given the aforementioned fundamental risks and the poor risk/return skew, history is clearly not in favor of those who remain long equities banking on the Fed to continue to levitate valuations and prices with limited tools and faulty narratives."