• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...

Market Conditions

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman Capitulates: Revises Fed Call, No Longer Expects A March Rate Hike





Another day, another Goldman prediction fiasco, and no, we are not talking about the stop out of the firm's Top Trade for 2016, namely the long USDJPY, short EURUSD (although that should happen any minute) - we are talking about that perpetual permabull, Jan Hatzius, just admitting the economy is in far worse shape than expected (if only by him), and as a result he just "revised" his Fed rate hike call, no longer expecting a March hike, instead now forecasting that the first rate hike will be in June and "and see a total of three rate increases this year."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

F(r)actions Of Gold





If the eurodollar and wholesale banking system had been sliced to such a thin margin again by 2011 so as to so heavily depend on the modern duality of gold, it not only would not survive it literally could not survive. The paper dilution we see now may just be that judgement finally seeking open admission.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Saudi Arabia Hemorrhages $19.4 Billion In Reserves During December





Saudi Arabia - which was busy playing headline hockey with Russia this morning over a rumored 5% production cut proposal - is running out of money. Yes, we know, that sounds absurd. But believe it or not, the country whose monarch recently rented the entire Four Seasons hotel for a 48 hour stay in Washington DC, is in fact going broke. And at a fairly rapid clip.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

3 Things: Fed Fails, Houston Horror, And Market Malaise





"With January looking like a loser, there is a 70% chance that February will decline also. The high degree of risk of further declines in February would likely result in a confirmation of the bear market. This is not a market to be trifled with. Caution is advised."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Time Is Running Out For Freeport After Downgrade To Junk And Striking Warning From Moody's





"We believe that the current environment is not a normal cyclical downturn but a fundamental shift in the operating environment for these commodities. As a consequence, a wholesale recalibration of ratings in the mining industry is deemed necessary. " - Moody's

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Pending Home Sales Disappoint, "Sizable Stock Market Losses" Blamed





Following the post-regulatory-change spike in existing and new home sales, pending home sales disappointed with a mere 0.1% rise MoM (missing expectations of a 0.9% rise). The weakness of the forward-looking indicator of home closings was blamed - as usual - on low inventories but also on "sizable losses in the stock market." The 3.1% YoY sales increase is close to the weakest since November 2014.

 
Monetary Metals's picture

Monetary Metals Brief 2016





We have made a contrarian call for a falling silver price and a rising gold to silver ratio for years. This ratio has risen a lot during this time. Are we ready to change our call yet?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Wall Street Economists React To The Fed's Statement





After the Fed's statement, one thing was clear: the career economists at the Marriner Eccles building are very confused, admitting to hiking rates for the first time in nine years "even as economic growth slowed late last year". But more confused are the Wall Street economists who follow the Fed and are expected to interpret what the Fed says, means and hints, especially when said Fed has no clue what is going on, like right now. So while their opinions are utterly worthless, for the record, here is what the economisseds see in today's 558 words of sheer Fed confusion.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Fed Back-Pedals Hawkishness, Hints At Policy Error: "Monitoring Global Developments", Admits "Growth Slowed Last Year"





Treading a fine line between losing all credibility and exposing their total devotion to the stock market, it appears The Fed is maintaining its delusion that everything will be fine as they unwind the largest and most experimental monetary policy of all time, and yet for the first time we get proof that the Fed admits it made an error by hiking into a slowing economy: "labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Fed Mouthpiece Parses Back-Pedaling Fed Statement





"The Federal Reserve signaled renewed worry about financial market turbulence and slow overseas economic growth, but didn’t rule out raising short-term interest rates in March."

 
RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk Preview: FOMC Rate Decision 270116 where focus will be on the Fed's language and any commentary on how many rate hikes we can expect this year





 

  • After the first rate hike in almost a decade, attention turns to the statement and whether the FOMC remain optimistic on their rate hike forecast.
     
  • An overwhelming majority expect the Fed to keep the Fed Fund Rate on hold at 0.25-0.50%, with FFR futures not pricing in the next hike until the September meeting.
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Bank (Un)earnings: Why FICC Is Shrinking And Will Continue To





We are told bank earnings and revenue are under pressure from a slew of “tough markets” but what makes those markets so untenable in the first place?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Schlumberger's Terrifying Moment Of Truth About The US Energy Sector





Having laid off 10,000 employees (and boosted his share buyback program by $10 billion - because that has worked out so well in the past), it appears Schlumberger CEO Paal Kibsgaard unleashes some very uncomfortable truthiness on his audience this morning during the earnings call... "For many of our customers, available cash and annual budgets were exhausted well before the halfway point for the fourth quarter... as pricing levels for frackers has dropped into unsustainable territory."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Someone Is Trying To Corner The Copper Market





It may not be as sexy as gold and silver, but sometimes even doctor copper needs a little squeeze and corner love as well, and according to Bloomberg, that is precisely what someone is trying to do. One company whose identity is unknown, is "hoarding as much as half the copper available in warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"These Are Extremely Poor Results": Deutsche Bank Reports Titanic $7 Billion Annual Loss





On Thursday, we got the latest bad news out of Deutsche as Cryan reported what he called “sobering” results for 2015. In short, the bank is staring down a net loss of €6.7 billion for the year, the first annual loss since 2008. "We see further downside risk on litigation – we model another €3.6bn in 2016 - which is likely to necessitate a capital raise."

 
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