Market Conditions

Tyler Durden's picture

Beige Book Summary: "Optimism" - 24; "Pessimism" - 1





Beige Book summary:

  • "Optimistic" or "Optimism": 24
  • "Pessimism": 1
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Janet Yellen Testifies About The Fed's Dovish Future - Live Feed





Fed Chair Janet Yellen will provide Congress with an update on the state of the economy, how rosy the future is, why she needs to keep rates lower for longer, and that there are no bubbles (oh apart from in bonds which everyone should sell because we need the collateral). These are her first comments since the FOMC press conference in mid-June and stocks have soared since then (as bond yields have tumbled) and she will have to tread a fine line between exuberant over headline job improvements and the need to keep over-inflated bubbles pumped full of cheap/free money for longer...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Jon Hilsenrath's 555 Word FOMC "QE Is Dead, Long Live The Easy Policy" Summary





1 minutes, 555 words, and Fed-whisperer Jon Hilsenrath declares that based on the FOMC minutes, QE is dead and now the uncertainty is all about rate-hike timing. Crucially, given the Fed's concerns over complacency, Hilsenrath explains, "while they don't expect rates to get very high because of lingering headwinds to the economy, they also don't want to give the public too much comfort that they'll remain near historically low levels far into the future."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Complete Annotation Of SocGen's Latest Hit Piece On Gold





Gold has held firmly above $1300 for over two weeks, confounding those who said it would never see that key level again, but as the constantly-bearish SocGen explains in this 'astounding' report, gold's downturn is set to return... except their reasoning has a fatal flaw - it's entirely factually incorrect.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Fed's Inflation Survey That The Fed Would Rather Not Hear





U.S. consumers think one-year domestic price inflation will run 50-100% higher than the current headline Consumer Price Index that Wall Street uses to value financial assets. That surprising finding doesn’t come from the fringe "Inflation is nigh, repent!" camp; as ConvergEx's NBick Colas points out, it is the central observation of the New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. This relatively new but rigorously designed monthly dataset polls 1,200 American households on a range of financial questions, from inflation expectations to household finances and labor market conditions. The news The Fed is hearing from the survey must be a bit tough to hear. Inflation expectations are significantly higher than their "Target" of 2% already, meaning any acceleration in prices will "Feel" higher than the central bank’s notional goals.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

5 Things To Ponder: The More Things Change





This week's "Things To Ponder" is focused on things that, in my opinion, far too many individuals are ignoring. Bob Farrell once wrote that "when all experts and forecasts agree; something else is bound to happen." Today, that is the case as much as it ever was. Despite rising geopolitical risks, weak economic data, deteriorating fundamentals and softer internals - the overwhelming belief is "equities are the only game in town." Of course, we have seen this mentality many times in past history whether it was 1929, 1987, 2000 or 2007. While every market peak was different, there were all the same.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

BofA Blasts Sell Bonds, Sell Gold, Buy Dollars





"After several weeks, Gold is setting up for a sell, US Treasuries are set to resume their bear trend, and the USD is set to resume its bull trend. Get ready..." is the ominous warning BofAML's Macneil Curry sets forth in his technical treatise this weekend. Despite the plethora reasons for rates to go lower for longer (and treacherous market conditions expected ahead) and the various fundamental and technical drivers of recent precious metals strength, Curry says it's time.

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

Personal Insights from a Global Hedge Fund Trader





"The government bond markets right now present one of the most one sided trades I've ever seen in my professional life."

 
tedbits's picture

American Empire on Fire! - Weekly Wrap - June 13, 2014





This week’s news certainly WASN’T BORING.  Big events and small add up to unfolding CHAOS around the WORLD. This week’s subjects: American Empire on FIRE!,  Out on a LIMB: Credit Unions facing INSOLVECY,  Is rising indebtedness a sign of economic strength?,  Bond YIELDS continue to collapse as the race for yield INTENSIFIES,  George Orwell in Action, Showdown looming at the OK corral!,  Simply UNBELIEVABLE SOVEREIGN credit market action, PHANTOM GDP, Rare INDEED, Must watch video interview with Charles Nenner,European BANKING SYSTEM INSOLVECY

 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

1994, 2004, 2014: Is The Bounce In Yields The Start Of Something Bigger?





The recent decline in US yields appears to have run its course and given Citi's outlook for a better employment dynamic in the US, they expect yields to trend higher at this point. Citi's FX Technicals group remain of the bias that the normalization of labor markets (and the economy) will lead to a normalization in monetary policy and as a result significantly higher yields in the long run. Might the shock be that the Fed could be grudgingly tightening by late 2014/early 2015 (an equal time line to the 1994-2004 gap would suggest end November 2014) just as it was grudgingly easing by late 2007 despite being quite hawkish earlier that year? However, given the "treacherous market conditions" we suspect Citi's hoped-for normalization won't go quite as smoothly as The Fed hopes.

 
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