Market Conditions

Quiet Start To Quad Witching: Stocks Rebound Around The Globe, BOJ Hits Yen

Today is quad-witching opex Friday, and according to JPM, some $1.3 trillion in S&P future will expire. Traditionally quad days are associated with a rise in volatility and a surge in volumes although in light of recent vol trends and overnight markets, today may be the most boring quad-witching in recent history: global stocks have again rebounded from yesterday's tech-driven losses as European shares rose 0.6%, wiping out the week's losses.

Your Last Minute FOMC Preview: "Will It Be A Dovish Hike Or Not"

The FOMC is expected to raise its overnight federal funds rate (FFR) target by 25bps to 1.00% to 1.25%, in what would be its second hike of 2017. Fed Funds Futures were pricing in a 95% implied probability that rates will be lifted – at one point last week, that probability was over 99%.

Qatar Crashes In Escalating Gulf Crisis; Oil Fails To Rebound As Global Stocks Dip

S&P futures point to a slightly lower open ahead of today's US non-mfg ISM and Service PMI data. European shares fall, while Asian shares are little changed. Several European countries are closed for Whit Monday leading to subdued trading. Following the latest unexpected Gulf Crisis overnight, in which Gulf nations cut all diplomatic relations with Qatar amid stunning allegations of funding terrorism, oil spiked but has since pared almost all gains.

Gold Or Treasuries: Horseman Capital Explains

The upshot of this is that gold looks better than treasuries. However, it should be pointed out that this does not mean gold is a buy. It only states that gold could do better than treasuries in these market conditions.”

Face Off : Stocks Vs. Bonds & The Economic Outlook

The bond market seems to be telling us that the probabilities of the reflation trade have dropped considerably. Meanwhile, the stock market appears to remain convinced that the prospects for growth and reflation are alive and well. Can they both be right?

FX Week Ahead: Highlights Include FOMC, BOC And OPEC

Politics dominate yet again, as focus on Comey testimony set to determine Trump and USD fate.  Fed minutes and OPEC meeting on the same day with the BoC thrown in!  EUR on the front foot and leading the pack as growth and inflation stats heighten tapering expectations, greenback flagging.

George Orwell's Monetary Policy

"Tightening is easing..." Monetary policy is a black box and former Fed chair, Alan Greenspan, acknowledged this more than 20 years ago...