Market Conditions

"The Swarm Effect": Every Trader Today Has Just Two Choices

" faces a choice between two scenarios: 1) A small probability of losing all of your money all at once at an undisclosed time in the future, or 2) A high probability of gradually losing small amounts over an indefinitely long period of time, keeping in mind that persistent small losses over an indefinite time period could lead to large cumulative losses."

Bond Selloff Returns As EM Fears Rise; Oil Slides; BOJ Does Not Intervene

U.S. index futures point slightly lower open. Asian shares rose while stocks in Europe fell as energy producers got caught in a downdraft in oil prices and reversed an earlier gain after Goldman unexpectedly warned that WTI could slide below $40 absent "show and awe" from OPEC.

Global Stocks Rise Amid Strong Economic Data; Yen Drops To 2 Month Low As Oil Resumes Slide

In a quiet overnight session, S&P 500 futures are fractionally in the green (2,426, +0.2%) with European and Asian stocks as oil drops second day after an initial ramp higher amid speculation that LIbya and Nigeria may be asked to cap their production. Nasdaq 100 Index are again higher, following the biggest daily advance in more than a week, up 0.4% as of 6:20 a.m. in New York.

BofA Stunned By Drop In Gasoline Demand: "Where Is Driving Season?"

US gasoline demand continues to surprise analysts by how weak it is. So weak, in fact, that Bank of America has released a note which has BofA's stunned energy analyst Francisco Blanch asking "where is the driving season?" and, more specifically, "Is this year's driving season over before it began?"

June Payrolls Preview: With The Fed On Autopilot, You Can Skip This One

After a poor March jobs report, followed by an April scorcher, then another debacle in May, the June payrolls report due at 8:30am will be... very much irrelevant, because as Citi pointed out earlier, the Fed is now data-indepdendent and will keep hiking until financial conditions finally tighten (read: stocks drop). For what it's worth, here are the consensus expectations for tomorrow's report.

FOMC Minutes Show "Divided" Fed Fearful Of High Asset Prices, Low Inflation

Having hiked in June amid gravely disappointing macro-economic data, all eyes are now on the minutes for inflation (weakness blamed on "idiosyncratic factors"), labor market (concerns about "sustained employment undershoot"), balance sheet normalization (Fed "divided" over when to start), and market valuation concerns ("equity market high on standard metrics"). Rate hike odds for Sept (22%) and Dec (56%) were rising into the release.

One Trader Warns Yellen's Delusional Statement Means "We're In A Lot Of Trouble"

"If you really want to pour cold water on all this optimism, consider the dangerousness of the thought that because of all the great things that have been done, it’s unlikely there will be another global financial crisis in our lifetime. If this is a view that is circulating behind the closed doors of central bank meetings and forums, we’re in a lot of trouble."