Market Conditions

Is A VaR Shock Just Starting: Here Is The Checklist

It appears we have a disagreement between two JPMorgan analysts: while one, namely head quant Marco Kolanovic anticipates a significant deleveraging by quant and algo funds, JPM's fund flow guru is desperate to talk down the threat from a coordinated global selloff, and concludes that a VaR shock may not be imminent after all.

Fed's Beige Book Repeats "Modest Economic Growth", No Rate Hike Odds Reaction

The Fed's most boring report, the Beige Book, once again offered its ubiquitous "modest" to "moderate" growth outlook with little insight into whether the Fed is considering any rate hike in the immediate future. On the topic of wages, the Fed said that "Upward wage pressures increased further and were moderate on balance, with more rapid gains reported for workers with selected specialized skill sets. Price increases remained slight overall"

Eerie Calm Continues: Futures Flat Ahead Of Apple's Latest Product Launch

The unprecedented period of low volatility, in which the S&P hasn't moved more than 1% in either direction, is now well into its 40th day and the muted overnight session has done nothing to put this streak in jeopardy with S&P futures once again hugging the flatline ahead of the widely expected 3:30pm ramp. European stocks were likewise little changed while Asia was fractionally higher depite a modest dip in the Nikkei.

Chipotle Soars After Bill Ackman Reveals 9.9% Stake, Goes Activist

Many thought that having been squeezed between the terrible performance of his Valeant long and his Herbalife short, that Bill Ackman would quietly fade into the sunset. No such luck, and as he revealed moments ago in a 13D filing, the Pershing Square founder has just gone activist on Chipotle, revealing a 9.9% stake, announcing he is "intend to engage in discussions" with management and the board.

Traders Return From Vacation To Find S&P Futures Flat, Oil And Dollar Lower, Amid Flurry Of M&A

The return from summer holidays has started in much the same way as we left off August, with another subdued session that has seen European stocks little changed, Asian shares advance and S&P futures are modestly in the green amid a flurry of M&A. The US dollar weakened, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index down 0.2% for the 2nd day in a row as prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike this month remained subdued.

Pending Home Sales Tumble For 2nd Month In A Row

Thanks to a series of negative revisions, pending home sales have now tumbled YoY for two consecutive months (dropping 2.2% in July versus an expectation of a 2.2% rise). The revisions enabled the MoM print of +1.3% to beat expectations optically (thanks to a surge in The West sales +7.3%). The good news for affordability is that NAR's Larry Yun notes homebuilders focusing down-market; the bad news, obviously, is that more supply will disable the low-inventory bid holding prices up at record highs. Probably time to hike rates...

Consumer Confidence Soars To 11-Month Highs (With 5 Standard Deviation Beat)

Slumping economic growth and rising gas prices don't matter. US Consumer Confidence jumped to 101.1 in August - highest since Sept 2015 - smashing expectations by almost 5 standard deviations as stocks hit record highs. Notably 'current expectations' rose to their highest since Aug 2007.

Hershey Plunges After Mondelez Pulls Offer To Buy Company

Three months after Mondelez shocked the world with the latest proposed mega-merger, when it offered $23 billion to acquire Pennsylvania's iconic Hershey, in a bid to make the world's biggest candy maker combining the candy industry’s second- and fifth-largest players by revenue, moments ago, the snack giant, which makes Oreo cookies and Cadbury chocolate bares, announced it was no longer pursuing the combination.

Global Stocks Drop, US Futures Down As Dollar Rebound Halts Longest Oil Rally In Years

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all fell in another quiet, low-volume early session. With oil entering a bull market yesterday, and set for its longest run of gains in 4 years after, overnight crude stumbled, and reversed early gains, falling for the first time in seven days driven by rebound in the dollar which gained versus all G-10 currencies with commodity currencies underperforming.

S&P Futures Unchanged As Europe Rises; Dollar Slide Sends Oil Above $47

In the latest quiet trading session, European shares rose while Asian stocks fell and S&P futures were little changed. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting damped prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike, sending the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index doen 0.3%, approaching a three-month low. Dollar weakness continues to buoy commodities, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index set for the most enduring rally in more than two months, as WTI flirted with $47