The fundamental problem with real estate is cost. The average household, whether renters or homeowners, is allocating too much of its income to housing. As a result, public policies are likely to continue in the direction of more subsidies, such the Federal Reserve’s manipulation of long term rates, and more regulations, such as eviction and foreclosure prevention, and rent controls. Real estate, could become a lot less “real” in the foreseeable future. As the market has witnessed since 2007, the Government could dictate the conditions of real estate ownership, even when it was not the lender. Today, it is in full control.
Market Wrap: Chinese Stocks Crash As Financials Suffer Record Drop; Commodities Resume Decline; US ClosedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2015 08:12 -0400
Following last week's Swiss stock market massacre as a result of a central bank shocker, and last night's crack down by Chinese authorities, it almost appears as if the global powers are doing what they can to orchestrated a smooth, painless (as much as possible) bubble deflation. If so, what Draghi reveals in a few days may truly come as a surprise to all those- pretty much everyone - who anticipate a €500 billion QE announcement on Thursday.
So far today has been a replica of yesterday, with the crude rout continuing and pushing WTI under $45, but largely ignored by the FX carry pairs, and thus equity futures, which have seen some positive momentum from overnight trade data out of China where exports jumped 9.7% beating the 6% expectation, while imports fell 2.4% compared to a projected 6.2% decline as the trade surplus narrowed from November’s record $54.4 billion. For the full year, however, Chinese trade grew at just 3.4%, missing the government’s target of 7.5% growth for the third year in a row as the government quick to blame the slowing global economy. In any event, the USDJPY is well off the overnight lows which means the EuroStoxx is up some 0.8% which, just like yesterday, the E-mini is up some 9 points and rising. It remains to be seen if, just like yesterday, US equities will crash at a precipitous pace after the open, once algos realize that nothing at all has changed.
If you, like the BIS, are sick and tired of central bankers, and in this case the ECB's endless jawboning and now daily QE threats, determining the level of stocks, well then today is a good day as any to take your blood pressure medication. Because first it was ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco who told German newspaper Welt am Sonntag that the risk of deflation in the euro zone should not be underestimated and urged the bank to buy government debt, and then, yet another regurgitated story, came from CNBC whose "sources" reported that the ECB QE would be based on contributions from national central banks and paid in capital. And while otherwise the cross-correlation trades would have at least pushed the crude complex modestly higher, today it was Goldman's energy analyst Jeffrey Currie finally throwing up all over oil, with a report in which he said that "because shale can rebound quickly once capital investments return, we now believe WTI needs to trade near $40/bbl for most of 1H15 to keep capital sidelined."
... things like a 50%+ drop in oil prices happen. Which at some point will lead more people to wonder what the real numbers are. For emerging nations, those numbers will not be pretty for 2015. They’re going to feel like they’re being thrown right back into the Stone Age. And they’re not going to like that one bit, and look for ways to express their frustration. Volatility is not just on the rise in the world of finance. It also is in the real world that finance fails to reflect. At some point, the two will meet again, and Wall Street will mirror Main Street. It will make neither any happier. But it’ll be honest.
Stocks are up nearly 2% today alone, with the S&P back to green for 2015. Among the reasons for today's rally: lower overhead courtesy of KO and CAT, which announced that between the two of them, they would fire some 2,000 workers, which is great news for stocks if not for actual employees as there will be even more dry powder for another record quarter of stock buybacks.
Chicago Fed's Charlie Evans called the drop in rates at the longer-end of the Treasury yield curve "extraordinary," falling just short of screaming "sell, sell, sell bonds" and threw wrench in the Fed's policy path by noting "raising rates at the wrong time would be catastrophic." So it is noteworthy that damage control appears to have been engaged this morning by no lesser Fed mouthpiece than Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath. Reminding the public of Bill Dudley's fears, when he argued the Fed had the wrong reaction to lower long rates in the 2000s, a mistake that might have contributed to the housing boom that ended disastrously; when instead the Fed should push rates higher sooner or more aggressively than planned.
Citing "softening market conditions influenced by oil," US Steel has issued lay-off warnings to 756 workers in the US... Layoffs will begin in early March as both Ohio and Texas plants will be idled.
There "Is" Blood: Energy Services Firm Civeo Cuts Headcount 45% & Guidance By 30%, Suspends DividendSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014 17:51 -0400
In what we suspect will be the first of many, Houston-based Civeo (which provides workforce accomodation to the oil industry) has crashed over 20% after-hours (after being down over 65% since September already) following the total carnage of its earnings report.
- *CIVEO HAS CUT U.S., CANADA HEADCOUNT BY 45%, 30% FROM EARLY '14
- *CIVEO SEES 2015 REV $540M-$600M, EST. $817.3M
Apparently having not only (Jana) but two (Einhorn) activist hedge funds is not nearly sufficient to send a stock soaring to all time highs, especially when said stock can no longer afford to buy back its own stock.
And just like that Grexit is back.
It appears that with a few short days left in the year, the Santa rally is finally over, if only in Greece where both bonds and stock are tumbling after the third vote for PM Samaras' appointed presidential appointee Stavros Dimas concluded as many had expected: in failure, with 168 Greek lawmakers voting in favor of Dimas, well short of the 180-vote threshold needed. 132 voted against Mr. Dimas. This means that the "worst case" scenario - at least as described by Goldman - is now on deck: a snap general election that could bring the anti-bailout Syriza party to power. And speaking of Syriza, and its triumphant leader Samaras, moments ago he announced that the now inevitable Greek elections will take place on January 25: pencil that date in for even more turmoil.
"Current equity valuations provide no margin of safety for long-term investors. One might as well be investing on a dare..."
The US dollar closed higher against all the major currencies during the holiday shortened week. The lack of liquidity may have exaggerated the weakness of Swedish krona and Norwegian krone, the poorest performing major currencies. Both lost about 1.5% against the greenback.
The least weak currencies were in the dollar-bloc. The Canadian and New Zealand dollars were practically flat, and the Australian dollar slipped 0.2%. The euro and sterling slipped about 0.5%, while the yen shed 0.7% of its recent gains.
- Japan inflation slows to 14 month low, output slips (Reuters)
- Russia says ruble crisis over as reserves dive, inflation climbs (Reuters)
- Ruble rebounds sharply from lows as exporters sell dollars (Reuters)
- Xbox, PlayStation Networks Attacked, Hackers Claim Credit (BBG)
- Sony’s ‘The Interview’ Packs Theaters Without Violence (BBG)
- Oil edges above $60 as Libyan output slumps (Reuters)
- Shoppers’ Late Rush Gives Hope to Retailers (WSJ)
- Japan says close to deal with South Korea and U.S. on North Korea defense (Reuters)
- NYPD Arrests Seven for Threats After Slayings of Officers (BBG)
It appears that the Q4 earnings season "bloodbath" predicted by harbinger Jefferies is right on track. According to Citigroup, Q4 is shaping up to be nothing short of a disaster for bank earnings. To wit: "Primary revenues decreased 17% yoy over Oct-Nov, notably impacted by weaker lending trends, per Dealogic industry data. Issuance revenues also declined while advisory revenues increased slightly. Loans revenues fell 61% yoy over Oct-Nov with leveraged finance particularly lower, given weaker market conditions [ZH: uhm, market hit all time highs in both October and Novemer?!]. By contrast, DCM revenues increased 11% over the same period, primarily driven by higher IG issuance (+27% yoy), partially offset by lower HY, down 12%." Which is odd: remember how everyone said banks are being punished for low volatility? Apparently the only thing worse for banks than zero/low vol was... high vol.