Everyone knows that when it comes to apologists and scapegoats, Q1 was all about weather excuses, and as SocGen already showed earlier today when it took a $730 million charge on its Russian subsidiary, Q2 misses will all be Ukraine's fault, which is ironic because as recently as a month ago experts were screaming over each other how little Ukraine matters for the global economy, how meaningless Russian exposure is to western banks and so on. But while one can at least superficially justify a bank provisioning against deposit flight and the accumulation of bad debt in a country in which paying one's debt is the last thing on the population's mind, a new and quite different victim of the Ukraine crisis was revealed earlier today when beer titan Carlsberg swung to a net loss and issued a profit warning: beer.
In a few short minutes, Fed Chairmanwoman Janet Yellen will hold the first part of her two-day testimony in Congress before the Joint Economic Committee (followed by testimony before the Senate Budget Committee), in which she will regale members of congress with tales about harsh weather in the first quarter, and who snow managed to subtract over $50 billion from the US economy in Q1.
It seems "market conditions" are right for the big one...
ALIBABA FILES IPO INITIAL REGISTRATION $1B; ALIBABA HOLDER YAHOO BENEFICIALLY OWNS 22.6%
2013 EBITDA: $2.7 billion, 2013 Free Cash Flow: $3.2 billion; Pro Forma cash $7.9 billion
Here are some of the key details, formerly non-public, from its IPO filing...
Some thoughts about the price action, or lack thereof, in the foreign exchange market.
World's Largest Pork Supplier Pulls Asia's Biggest IPO For 2014 Due To "Deteriorating Market Conditions"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2014 09:16 -0500
“In light of deteriorating market conditions and recent excessive market volatility, the company, having consulted the joint sponsors, has decided that the global offering will not proceed at this time.”
Just a few brief days ago, Weibo IPO'd "successfully" at the bottom-end of its range ($17) and exploded higher - "proving" that Candy Crush (or take your pick of recent IPO failures) were all one-offs and that 'quality' companies were still in demand. Fast forward 6 days and Weibo just entered a bear-market - down dramatically from its highs over $24 and is nearing its IPO price. There's no data, no news - just selling, in size. Investors stashing cash away for another pop in Alibaba's forthcoming IPO perhaps? Not if market conditions continue to look like this...
Investors take note. One of the primary market props of the last five years is being removed. What happens when the markets finally catch on?
Having the trade record of Bernie Madoff and the braggadocio of a WWF wrestler was just too much for New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman to ignore. Rigged Market HFT Poster-child, and recent-delayed IPO, Virtu Financial has received a letter of inquiry from the AG's office requesting information about its business. As Bloomberg reports, a person with knowledge of the matter said this week that six high-frequency trading firms have received subpoenas as part of Schneiderman’s investigation and Virtu was asked for similar information in a letter of inquiry which could be escalated to a subpoena if the company doesn’t comply voluntarily.
Here’s something you don’t see very often: For a day and a half this week, the Japanese government’s benchmark 10-year bonds attracted not a single successful private sector bid. At today’s artificially-depressed yields, no one wants this paper — except of course the Bank of Japan, which is buying up the bonds with newly-created yen. In a world of markets rather than manipulations, this kind of imbalance would be an automatic short candidate. Actually, this kind of imbalance would never occur and as one trader noted "I know this could end badly."
The Philly Fed Business Outlook survey surged to 16.6, beating expectations by the most since September and rising to 7-month highs. Most subindices rose with shipments surging and new orders rising but prices paid flat. The big worry though is that this six-month forward expectations collapsed to their lowest since April 2013. So the pent-up-weather-demand is being seen as entirely unsustainable by the survey respondents...
While overall the beige book was an absolute snoozer, almost as boring as Yellen's earlier appearance at the economic club of New York, and its core message were quite bullish, namely that:
EIGHT OF 12 FED DISTRICTS SAY GROWTH `MODEST OR MODERATE'
FED SAYS ECONOMIC GROWTH `INCREASED IN MOST REGIONS' OF U.S.
FED SAYS LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS `MIXED BUT GENERALLY POSITIVE'
... confirming that the Beige Book contributors did not get the "ignore the dots" memo, the only "exciting" thing that everyone was looking for: what the Fed thought about the weather. Because with 103 instances of the word "weather" in the report (granted less than the 119 in February), it sure thought a lot.
*YELLEN SAYS FED COMMITTED TO ACCOMMODATION TO SUPPORT RECOVERY
Markets will be hanging on every word of what is likely Janet Yellen's first monetary policy speech and even more so the Q&A afterwards as she suggests that a considerable time is more than 6 months, and the delicate balance she has to play between admitting the economy is ugly while admitting that QE is over no matter what... all the while maintaining some semblance of credibility. One has to wonder if the ripfest rally of the last 24 hours is a buy the rumor ramp ahead of a sell the Yellen news event as once again she is tested...
" The Korean authorities should limit foreign exchange intervention to the exceptional circumstances of disorderly market conditions" - US Treasury
Pension funds over exposure to paper assets and lack of diversification has cost pension holders dearly in recent years. This will continue in the coming years with attendant consequences for pensions ...
- Three dead in shootings at Kansas Jewish centers; man to face charges (WSJ)
- Sanctions Blowback in Russia Targets Burgers to Movies (BBG)
- Deadly Virus's Spread Raises Alarms in Mideast (WSJ)
- China group buys $6bn Glencore Peru copper mine (BBG)
- Iran lodges complaint against United States over U.N. envoy ban (Reuters)
- Russian assets down sharply on Ukraine conflict fears (Reuters)
- ECB comments knock euro, but not much (Reuters)
- World-Leading $25 Hourly Wage Roils Swiss Businesses (BBG)