Market Conditions

Global Stocks Jump; Oil Rises As Yen Plunges After Another Japanese FX Intervention Threat

In what has been an approximate repeat of the Monday overnight session, global stocks and US futures rose around the world as oil prices climbed toward $44 a barrel, with risk-sentiment pushed higher by another plunge in the Yen which has now soared 300 pips since the Friday post-payroll kneejerk reaction, and was trading above 109.20 this morning. At the same time base metals regained some of Monday’s steep losses following Chinese CPI data that came in line while PPI declined for 50 consecutive months however showed a modest rebound from the prior month on the back of China's recent, and now burst, speculative commodity bubble.

Who's Telling The Truth On American Jobs - The Fed Or The Government?

For the fourth month in a row, Labor Market Conditions - according to The Fed - have contracted, the longest streak since the financial crisis. At the same time, despite having fallen from recent highs, the government's Labor Department proclaims non-farm payrolls continue to improve... because the narrative of consecutive monthly job gains must stand. The question is - who is telling the truth?

Key U.S. Events In The Coming Week

In the traditional post payrolls data lull, we’re kicking off what’s set to be a much quieter week for data this week with nothing of note due to be released in the US on Monday, however the week picks up with notable economic dataon NFIB small business cofidence, Import prices, PPI and culminates with Friday's retail sales report, UMichigan sentiment and business inventories.

US Futures, Europe Stocks Jump On Oil, USDJPY Surge; Ignore Poor China Data, Iron Ore Plunge

The overnight session has been one of alternative weakness and strength: it started in China where stocks tumbled 2.8% to a two month low following some unexpected warnings in the official People's Daily newspaper and poor trade data. Concerns about China, however, were promptly forgotten and certainly not enough to keep global assets lower, with European stocks gapping higher at the open and rallying from a one-month low, driven by a "surprising" surge in the USDJPY which has moved nearly 200 pips higher since its post-payrolls low. Another driver is the jump in oil, which rallied just shy of $46 a barrel, buoyed by Canadian wildfires that are curbing production and speculation that the Saudi Arabian oil minister succession will be bullish for oil prices.

If Everything Is So Great, Where Are The Unicorn IPOs?

Over the course of the last week it seemed no matter where we turned in the business media one meme was being pushed above all others: It’s still a great time to be a private tech unicorn. Implying, that funding rounds were still “robust.” What wasn’t said, so we will, is this: It’s a great time to be a private “unicorn” rather, than take the chance and become the poster-child for the IPO apocalypse. For it’s better to be assumed a $BILLION dollar success story rather, than IPO and officially open the books to the market and remove all doubt – that you’re not.

Chaos & Volatility Is On The Rise

Things are getting ‘weird’ out there if you’re trying to be polite, and downright 'chaotic' if you're being blunt. Everywhere we look, we see signs that the systems that support us are breaking down.

Three Years After Going Public, Fairway Files Chapter 11

Back in April 2013, during the height of the IPO scramble, the NYT gushed about Fairway's just concluded IPO: "Until recently, Fairway was not much more than a popular market on Manhattan’s Upper West Side, where residents went for goods like smoked salmon, medjool dates and cheeses. Today, it is a fast-growing 12-store grocery chain with ambitions of opening 300 outlets across the country." Just over three years later, the once successful IPO is now a distant memory and soon enough, so will the company behind it because overnight Fairway Group Holdings filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection,

China Manufacturing PMI Disappoints - In Contraction For 14th Straight Month

Despite a trillion dollars of credit spewed into the Chinese 'economy' speculative finance channels, Manufacturing remains in a slump as April's China PMI tumbled to 49.4 after a brief bounce back up to 49.8 (from the 48.0 low in Feb). This is the 14th month in a row of contraction. As Caixin reports, relatively weak market conditions and muted client demand contributed to a further solid decline in staff numbers, which seems to put a nail in the coffin of anyone who believes recent price action in industrial commodities is anything but speculative fervor.

FOMC Statement Key Take Aways: "Fed Leaves Door Open For June Rate Hike"

  1. The April 27 statement downgraded economic activity, said it "slowed", but labor market conditions "improved further" and inflation still expected to rise toward 2% over the medium term.
  2. Removed language that "global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks".
  3. Kansas City Fed's Esther George dissented in favor of a rate hike.

Fed Removes "Global Risk" Alert But Keeps Monitoring "Global Economic And Financial Developments" - Full Statement Redline

Since Yellow-Yellen's March dovefest, stocks have rallied, China has stabilized, and while economic data has been weak in general - jobs and inflation (which is what The Fed claims to care about) have been positive. So how does The Fed make June a live meeting, tilt hawkish, and still protect the narrative of recovery and the sanctity of their equity market (which is all that really matters)...


So "risks" are "balanced" and The Fed is "data depedent" again - rate-hikes are back on the table, however here is a key change: instead of monitoring "inflation developments" the Fed is now "monitoring inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments" which is effectively the same as the struck language on "global economic and financial developments."

No Energy Recovery In Sight: Freeport Fires 25% Of Its Oil And Gas Workers

FCX is taking immediate steps to reduce oil and gas costs further. In April 2016, FCX announced a new management structure and is instituting an approximate 25 percent oil and gas workforce reduction. The newly structured oil and gas management team is actively engaged in managing costs and developing plans to preserve and enhance asset values.

Is There A Problem With The BLS Employment Reports?

It is quite evident there is something amiss about the BLS’ employment reports. Is the disparity simply an anomaly in the seasonal adjustments caused by the depth of the financial crisis? Is there an exceptional and unaccounted for margin of error in the surveys? Or, is it something more intentional by government-related agencies to keep “confidence” elevated as Central Banks globally “paddle like crazy” to keep global economies afloat.