Market Conditions

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Caterpillar Shares Tumble After Company Misses Across The Board, Revenues Plunge 19%, Guidance Cut





We hoped yesterday's preview would soften the blow from today's CAT Q3 earnings which were clearly going to be ugly, and surely worse than consensus estimates. Moments ago we got said earnings and as expected, they were indeed far worse than expected, with CAT reporting adjusted EPS of $0.75 ($0.62 GAAP), below consensus estimate of $0.77, while revenue of $11.0 billion also missed expectations of $11.33.This takes place even as CAT repurchased $1.5 billion in stock in Q3, or about 75% of the total $2.0 billion in buybacks it conducted in all of 2015 (compared to $8 billion in the past three years).

 
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Ominous Signs Of Peak Employment





The current detachment between the financial markets and the real economy continues. The Federal Reserve's continued accommodative stance continues to support asset prices despite a decline in profit margins, an increase in deflationary pressures and a weak economic backdrop. So, while jobless claims and job openings may be touted as signs of an improving job market, the data suggests that we have likely seen the peak for this current economic cycle.

 
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US Treasury Folds? Softens Stance On Yuan From "Significantly Undervalued" To "Below Appropriate" Valuation





We presume the 'threat' of selling hundreds of billions of dollars of US Treasuries has prompted a softening in the "Currency manipulator" rhetoric from The US Treasuy department. Having previously said the Yuan is "significantly undervalued," today's report shifts the comment to stating that the Yuan is "below appropriate medium-term valuation." Of course, The US Treasury would know exactly how all of the world's currencies should trade in this centrally-planned world.

 
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Oil Market Showdown: Can Russia Outlast The Saudis?





Despite the intense pain they are suffering in the low price Crudedome, both the Russian and Saudi governments profess for public consumption that they are committed to their volume and market share policies. This observer believes the two countries cannot long withstand the pain they have brought upon themselves - and this article only scratches the surface of the negative impact of low crude prices on their economies. They have, in effect, turned no pain no gain into intense pain no gain and set in motion the possibility neither will exit the low price Crudedome under its own power.

 
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"Shadow" Short Convexity: If You Short 'Fear', Be Prepared For 'Horror'





The 2007-2008 financial crash was not a black swan. That is a collective lie propagated by policy makers so they don’t cry themselves to sleep at night. Many different people predicted and profited from the 2008 crisis. It was about the fear of failing banks and crashing markets... but the true horror was the impending collapse of the entire fiat money system that never came to be. That was the true black swan. 

 
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The Economic Doomsday Clock Is Closer To Midnight





Central banks are fearful and unwilling to normalize but artificially high valuations across asset classes cannot be sustained indefinitely absent fundamental global growth. Central banks are in a prison of their own design and we are trapped with them. The next great crash will occur when we collectively realize that the institutions that we trusted to remove risk are actually the source of it. The truth is that global central banks cannot remove extraordinary monetary accommodation without risking a complete collapse of the system, but the longer they wait the more they risk their own credibility, and the worse that inevitable collapse will be. In the Prisoner’s Dilemma, global central banks have set up the greatest volatility trade in history.

 
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3 Things: The Fed Is Screwed





The Federal Reserve is quickly becoming trapped by its own "data-dependent" analysis. Despite ongoing commentary of improving labor markets and economic growth, their own indicators are suggesting something very different. As we have stated previously, while the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates simply to "save face," there is indeed little real support for them doing so. Tightening monetary policy further will simply accelerate the time frame to the onset of the next recession. Of course, the Fed knows this which is why they recently floated the idea of "negative interest rates" out into the markets. In other words, they already likely realize they are screwed.

 
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Philly Fed Misses Again As New Orders, Jobs, Workweek, & Inventories Crash





Philly Fed general business activity somehow managed to rise very modestly in October from -6.0 to -4.5 but missed expectations. This the second monthly decline in a row - not seen since 2013. We say "somehow" as the underlying components were a total and utter disaster. New Orders collapsed from +9.4 to -10.6, Unfilled orders crashed to -11.7, Employment plunged from 10.2 to -1.7, and workweek evaporated from +7.0 to -7.3. Even "hope" collapsed with future expectations dropping from 44.0 to 36.7 with CapEx expectations cliff diving.

 
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Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To 42 Year Lows, Despite Surging Job Cuts





The yawning gap between job cuts (surging most since 2009) and initial jobless claims (hovering near 42 year lows) continues to grow as initial jobless claims collapse 7k this week to 255k - the lowest since 1973. Bear in mind, Goldman's explanation that jobless claims are useless in this part of the business cycle..."this does not signal a booming labor market."

 
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Market Cycles And Collisions In A Non-Linear World





"While it is human nature to think and expect along linear lines, our World just doesn’t work that way. Instead, everything moves in cycles, some short and shallow, while other cycles are long and deep. What we are experiencing today is the likely turning point in a very long cycle of borrowing, borrowing and then borrowing some more."

 
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Bank of America Net Interest Margin Drops To All Time Low, FICC Revenues Tumble 11%





While yesterday's JPM results missed from the top to the bottom, coupled with a surprising and aggressive deleveraging of the bank's balance sheet which has shrunk by over $150 billion in 2015 mostly on the back of a decline in deposits, Bank of America reported numbers which were largely the opposite when it printed a modest beat on both the top line with $20.9 billion in revenues (adjusted sales of $20.6Bn vs Exp. $20.5Bn), down $500 million from a year ago, and the bottom line: generating $0.35 in adjusted earnings in the quarter, 2 cents better than the $0.33 consensus estimate.

 
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Is This 2000, 2007 Or 2011?





One of the primary arguments by the more "bullish" media is that the current setup is much like that of 2011 following the "debt ceiling" debate and global economic slowdown caused by the Tsunami in Japan. While there are certainly some similarities, such as the weakness being spread from China and a market selloff, there are some marked differences.

 
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Frontrunning: October 13





  • Playboy to Drop Nudity as Internet Fills Demand (NYT)
  • Stock futures fall on weak China trade data (Reuters)
  • Any Hall is down 20% YTD (WSJ)
  • Global Stocks Slide With Metals After Chinese Imports Tumble (BBG)
  • Clinton's tack to the left to be on display in Democratic debate (Reuters)
  • Switzerland Said to Impose 5% Leverage Ratio on Big Banks (BBG)
  • AB InBev, SABMiller brew up $100 billion deal (Reuters)
 
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Goldman Demolishes Jobless Claims Hype: "This Does Not Signal A Booming Labor Market"





As we pointed out previously, the growing convergence between BLS-reported initial jobless claims (at 42 year lows) and reported job cuts (highest since 2009) suggests someone is lying. It appears we have found the cuplrit as Goldman Sachs confirms that changes in gross labor market flows (e.g. gross hires and quits), as well as changes in the unemployment insurance benefit take up rate, affect the relationship between jobless claims and employment growth over the cycle. For this reason, today’s low level of jobless claims should probably not be taken as a sign of a booming labor market.

 
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Fed Mouthpiece "Explains" Epic September Fed Confusion





WSJ’s Fed whisperer is always good for a bit of Eccles propaganda and so, for whatever it's worth to you, we present the following Hilsy interpretation of the just-released minutes from the “most important” Fed meeting in recent history.

 
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