Market Conditions

Frontrunning: November 3

  • Cubs Win 1st Series Title Since 1908, Beat Indians in Game 7 (BBG)
  • Trump, Clinton blast each other on character; Clinton rises in poll (Reuters)
  • Trump-effect grips world stocks, dollar (BBG)
  • No Brexit without Parliament approval: High Court (Reuters)
  • With Iraqi troops at Mosul's gate, Baghdadi promises victory (Reuters)
  • China Slowdown Deepens Looming Pension Crisis (WSJ)

US Economy Continues to Weaken As Warning Signs Flash Recession Ahead

The US economy continues to show weakening conditions as new warning signs are flashing recession ahead. This is despite the best efforts of the FED and the US Government to assure the public that there are plenty of measures in place to continue to stimulate the economy.

Previewing This Week's Most Interesting Central Bank Decision (No, Not The Fed)

With Yellen paralyzed with fear and certain to change nothing just 6 days before the election, a far more interesting central bank meeting due later this week, is that of the BOJ which addresses the market on November 1, and which over the past few months has set the global bond market on edge with its attempts to steepen the JGB yield curve which in turn led to the VaR-shocked early September stock selloff,

Jared Dillian: "The Fed Is More Hawkish Than You Think"

"This is not a good Fed. They aren’t making decisions on a predictive, forward-looking basis. They are very concerned about optics, appearances—how things look. And to them, right now the optics of having Fed funds at 0.375% with unemployment at 5% are very bad. But that isn’t how it’s supposed to work."

The Federal Reserve Is Hillary Clinton's Secret Weapon

Say what you want about Donald J. Trump, but he is correct about one thing: the Federal Reserve has, with near certainty, been holding interest rates down for political purposes - namely, to aid Hillary Clinton in getting elected president of the United States.

Billionaire Clinton "Hillblazer" Pushes New Tax That Funnels Middle Class Money To Wall Street

Wall Street is maneuvering to propose and implement a new retirement tax on Americans under a Hillary Clinton Administration. Leading the charge is billionaire financial oligarch Tony James, who is COO of private equity giant Blackstone. Mr. James is a generous contributor to Hillary Clinton’s Presidential run, and is listed as a “Hillblazer” by her campaign for having raised at least $100,000 toward her candidacy.

Global Stocks Pressured By Weak Earnings, Rate Hike Concerns; Pound Jumps

Global stocks are pressured this morning after a plunge in the Thai stock market and currency on concerns about the king's health and Fed hikes coupled with some more bad news out of Samsung which cut profit estimates by a third, while European stocks are suffering after Swedish telecom giant Ericsson issued a profit warning, sending its shares plunging 17%.

Fed Labor Market Conditions Crash As Rate-Hike Hopes Soar

Having jawboned rate-hike odds up near cycle record highs (December odds at ~70%), The Federal Reserve's Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) is crashing. Following a brief dead cat bounce in July, LMCI is now accelerating lower.

Global Stocks Decline On Samsung Woes; Rising Dollar Pressures Oil

Global markets and US equity futures fell on Samsung Galaxy Note 7 contagion concern, while the dollar rose to its strongest level in 11 weeks and U.S. bonds declined as investors boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Key Events In The Coming Week

In the US focus will be on the market's reaction to the second presidential debate, FOMC Minutes but also retail sales, import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment. We also hear from various Fed speakers throughout the week, and Chair Yellen gives a keynote speech on Friday.