Market Conditions

Housing Bubble 1.0 Vs. Housing Bubble 2.0 - The Culprit Is "Shadow Demand"... Again!

"If 2006 was a known bubble with housing prices at “X”, affordability never better, easy availability of credit, unemployment in the 4%’s, total workforce at record highs, and growing wages, then what do you call today with house prices at X+ 5% to 20%, worse affordability and credit, higher unemployment, weakening total workforce, and shrinking wages? Whatever you call it, it’s a greater thing than “X”."

Initial Jobless Claims Still Decoupled From Hypocritical Fed's "Experimental" Labor Market Index Collapse

Having been told yesterday by Janet Yellen that The Fed's Labor Market Indicator is merely "experimental" - contradicting her Aug 2014 exuberance over the index - we thought it worth highlighting just how decoupled the nation's labor market data really is. Initial claims rose to 277 from 264k, slightly higher (worse) than the expected 270k but remain near the best in 40 year, as LMCI crashes to 6 year lows...

Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Says Labor Market "Will Strengthen" But Slashes Rates Hike Trajectory

With bonds and bullion remainig bid post payrolls, post May Minutes, post April FOMC, and post December's Fed rate-hike, it is clear that the market is losing faith in The Fed... and we suspect The Fed is losing faith in itself as it takes the ax (once again) to its growth and rate forecasts (the dot-plot).

  • *FED SAYS IT EXPECTS LABOR MARKET INDICATORS `WILL STRENGTHEN'
  • *FED: MEDIAN FED FUNDS EST. 1.6% END-2017 VS 1.9% IN MARCH
  • *FED SAYS PACE OF LABOR MARKET IMPROVEMENT HAS SLOWED

July rate-hike odds are at 18% (and Sept at 19%). Pre-Fed: S&P Futs 2082, 10Y 1.61%, EUR 1.1240, Gold $1285

JPM's Quant Guru Unveils The $1 Trillion Catalyst That Will Unleash The Next Market In Turmoil

"About ~$1,000Bn of S&P 500 options expire this week. The gamma imbalance turned towards puts yesterday ($9bn per 1% currently), and this will likely push realized volatility higher near term. Post expiry, clients are likely to roll put strikes higher, which will also be supportive of higher volatility. Yesterday’s large move on the VIX indicates short gamma exposure of dealers on VIX products as well." - Marko Kolanovic

The Fed Has Whiffed Again - Massive Monetary Stimulus Has Not Helped Labor, Part 2

In today’s world of flexible just-in-time production, hours-based labor scheduling and gig-based employment patterns, there is really no such standardized labor unit as a “job”. In that context, a simple paint-by-the-numbers exercise demonstrates the foolishness of the Fed’s obsession with hitting a quantitative “full employment” target.

"It's Time To Panic" - Albert Edwards Warns Recession Is Imminent

“Everyone has a plan until they are punched in the face.” This famous Mike Tyson quote spells out the outlook for investors in the years ahead according to SocGen's Albert Edwards, who warns that investors will not only be punched in the face, they will also get knocked to the floor and kicked repeatedly in the ribs.

FedSpeak - Lost In Translation

Federal Reserve speakers appear to be suffering from an inability to contain themselves to the detriment of their audiences. So damaging is FedSpeak, so to speak, that it’s become the Fed’s greatest liability, chipping away at what little credibility monetary policymakers have left in reserve. Perhaps what is most disturbing about today’s stretch of FedSpeak is how it parallels with the months preceding the Great Recession.

Jobs Schmobs - Who's Right?

The Department of Labor says initial jobless claims for the last week were 264k, better than expected and falling back towards best in 42 year lows. The Federal Reserve says Labor Market Conditions are deteriorating at the fastest rate since 2009. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said last week that nonfarm payrolls rose just 38k, the worst since 2010... So who is right?

And An Even Louder Warning From Goldman: The "Yellen Call" Is Back And Will Limit Further Market Upside

With financial conditions having significantly recovered, it is reasonable to expect that the Yellen call will soon be back in the money following the June FOMC meeting. We believe June is largely off the table given the weakness of Friday’s employment report and the UK referendum on its EU membership in June. But we think the July meeting is live, without our US Economics team seeing a 40% probability of a second hike. With equity markets posting new highs this week, we think the ‘Yellen call’ is on track to move back into the money in 2016H2.

Would New All-Time Highs Negate The Bear Market?

... it is not uncommon for the markets to briefly make new “all-time” highs during a correction process as emotional sentiment runs ahead of fundamental and economic deterioration.

S&P Nears All Time High, Global Stocks Rally As Dovish Yellen Unleashes Animal Spirits

Stock whisperer Yellen said all the right things yesterday, when she sounded more optimistic than pessimistic on the economy but while the economy is "strong" it is most likely not strong enough to weather a rate hike in the immediate future. As a result, the S&P 500 climbed toward a record on Monday (and continued rising overnight) after Yellen said she expects to raise interest rates only gradually and held off from specifying any timeframe, a shift from her May 27 stance that a move was probable “in the coming months.” This was interpreted that both a June and July rate hike are now off the table, with September odds rising modestly.