Market Conditions

What's Driving Rates?

While the bump in rates has been fastened to the recent election of Donald Trump, due to hopes of a deficit expansion program (read: more debt) and infrastructure spending which should foster economic growth and inflation, it doesn’t explain the global selling of U.S. Treasuries.

Philly, Empire Feds Smash Expectations On Soaring Optimism Despite Deterioration Labor Conditions, Inflation Spike

There is seemingly no stopping the runaway train that is the economic momentum of the past month, as confirmed by the just released Philly and Empire Fed surveys, which printed at 21.5 and 9.0, smashing expectations of 9.1 and 4 respectively, in fact printing above the highest estimate for both reports, and well above the recent print of 7.6 and 1.5. The one blemish was the sharp drop in labor market conditions at the Empire Fed, which saw a big drop in both employment and hours worked.

BofA Warns Trumpflation Might Break The "Buy The Dip" Trade

A strategy of holding cash and buying any 5% dip in S&P until markets retrace the loss has outperformed the S&P consistently since 2014, but as BofAML warns, the changes in inflation market dynamics post-Trump may "handcuff" The Fed and pull a key support out of the market that helped create the "buy the dip" trade.

"Panicked" Citi Trader "Who Fired Off Repeated Sell Orders" Behind Pound Flash Crash

A probe into October’s sterling "flash crash" has focused on the Japanese trading operations of Citigroup, which fired off repeated sell orders that exacerbated the pound’s fall. One of the US bank’s traders "panicked" and placed multiple sell orders when the currency slumped in unusually fragile market conditions.

Not Remotely Data Dependent

Should the FOMC “hike” in December, it will again have nothing to do with economy or recovery.

Global Stocks Rise As Oil Dips; US Stock Futures And Dollar Flat

European and Asian markets rose, while U.S. index futures were little changed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushing for yet another record, as traders digested the Italian referendum news, await the ECB's Thursday announcement and reflect in a notably quieter overnight session.  Oil slipped from a 16-month high after 4 straight days of gains.

Fed Labor Market Conditions Index Contracts For 5th Straight Month

Despite a small rise MoM, The Fed's own Labor Market Conditions Index has now deteriorated year-over-year for 5 straight months, despite significant upward revisions over the last 6 months, most notably in September and October. As Deutsche's Jo Lavorgan notes,"the upshot is that the economic outlook remains fragile despite the ostensible robustness of the labor market."

Key Events In The Coming Weeks: Italy Aftermath, ECB, ISM, Consumer Confidence

The key economic releases this week are ISM non-manufacturing on Monday and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. Away from the US economic calendar, initially focus will be on the Italian referendum result, which appears to have been mostly digested by the market as bullish. It will then shift quickly to a critical ECB meeting.

European Stocks Soar, US Futures, Euro Jump After Failed Italian Referendum

Another miraculous overnight recovery has eliminated all the bearish aftertaste from the failed Italian referendum. As Guillermo Sampere of MPPM EK put it: "After Brexit, it took three days for markets to shake it off, with Trump it took three hours, with Italy it took three minutes.The fast money, who expected markets to fall further with this outcome, are now covering their positions."