It's looking increasingly likely that third time's the charm: this set of bubbles is the last one central banks can blow. And when markets free-fall and don't reflate into new bubbles, pension funds will expire, as they were fated to do the day central banks chose zero interest rates forever as their cure for a broken economic model.
A clear pattern has emerged that resulted in big profits for smart investors in 2015.
Statistically, the likelihood of a crash coming on any given day is small. But that is a little like telling a turkey not to worry because the likelihood of Thanksgiving is only 1 out of 365.
The Royal Canadian Mint just published its Q1 2016 Report, and the silver bullion coin sales figures were stunning to say the least
If even 0.1% of this money is “at risk” it would wipe out 10% of the big banks equity. If 1% were “at risk” it would wipe out ALL of the big banks’ equity.
And if you believe the defaults will be isolated to Energy companies, you’re mistaken.
"Everyday we read headlines on what the central banks are doing. But their policies don’t have any effect. They are just like treading water. All the central banks are doing is substituting one form of debt with another form of debt... I think it means the business of central banks is like pornography: It’s not the real thing."
Many “unicorns” have ceased to be race-worthy a long time ago, but the narrative has been desperately held up reminiscent of a Potemkin village for these last 18 months or more with hopes, prayers, and breathtaking fairy-tales bordering on outright fraud in hopes that maybe, just maybe, they’ll make it to an IPO and shed all that dead weight of having to holdup this house-of-cards pretension any longer. It’s quite possible not only is that race never going to restart.
Over 76% of the time, this resulted in stocks losing at least 20%.
Another week of volatility, but with no real resolution to the burning question of “where do we go next?”
"If you think you’ve seen this movie before it’s because you have. Like during 2015, the Fed appears bent on pushing rate expectations higher, and the operative question is whether markets are sufficiently calm for the Fed to use the June 2016 meeting to pave the way for a July hike. We think the answer is no.... and the outlier appears to be the S&P500, where valuations appear excessive given the breakeven/real yield framework."
The underlying economic ugliness that triggered the August and January meltdowns emerges once again.
The last time this hit was June 2008 right before the Crash. Before that it was March 2001 during the Tech Crash.
One by one the buyers stop buying... what comes next?
We are not in a recession. We are in a depression, and have been since the turn of the century.