Market Crash

Tyler Durden's picture

NYSE To Cancel Trades Beyond 30% Band From Opening Price In Various Stocks, Knight To Foot Bill For Balance?





Update: NYSE has completed its review of the impaired stocks. Those are the only 6 stocks which will see trade cancellations:

Just as the only response by the SEC and various exchanges to the May 2010 flash crash was to cancel all trades beyond a 20% band of the prevailing NBBO before the Flash Crash (in the process destroying any confidence that market crash perpetrators would be truly punished by forcing them to incur the full damage resulting from the consequences of their stupidity), so the NYSE has determined to unilaterally cancel all trades, initially in six stocks, but probably in all of the attached 140 symbols, in a move that will teach the offenders absolutely nothing, and will punish only those who took advantage of a broken market to incur one-time profits courtesy of a broken market structure. However, what it will also do, is likely make Knight directly liable for any losses incurred by traders from the opening price through the 30% breakage threshold. In other words, with Knight losing about $300 million in market cap today, investors are speculating that the net loss to the firm will be just that as it has to foot the bill. Considering the volume and breadth of the impaired universe, this will likely be very big underestimation of just what the final bill will be to Knight.  And isn't it ironic that Knight itself was until recently complaining about how much money it itself lost on the FaceBook IPO as a market maker...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

This Is The Government: Your Legal Right To Redeem Your Money Market Account Has Been Denied - The Sequel





Two years ago, in January 2010, Zero Hedge wrote "This Is The Government: Your Legal Right To Redeem Your Money Market Account Has Been Denied" which became one of our most read stories of the year. The reason? Perhaps something to do with an implicit attempt at capital controls by the government on one of the primary forms of cash aggregation available: $2.7 trillion in US money market funds. The proximal catalyst back then were new proposed regulations seeking to pull one of these three core pillars (these being no volatility, instantaneous liquidity, and redeemability) from the foundation of the entire money market industry, by changing the primary assumptions of the key Money Market Rule 2a-7. A key proposal would give money market fund managers the option to "suspend redemptions to allow for the orderly liquidation of fund assets." In other words: an attempt to prevent money market runs (the same thing that crushed Lehman when the Reserve Fund broke the buck). This idea, which previously had been implicitly backed by the all important Group of 30 which is basically the shadow central planners of the world (don't believe us? check out the roster of current members), did not get too far, and was quickly forgotten. Until today, when the New York Fed decided to bring it back from the dead by publishing "The Minimum Balance At Risk: A Proposal to Mitigate the Systemic Risks Posed by Money Market FUnds". Now it is well known that any attempt to prevent a bank runs achieves nothing but merely accelerating just that (as Europe recently learned). But this coming from central planners - who never can accurately predict a rational response - is not surprising. What is surprising is that this proposal is reincarnated now. The question becomes: why now? What does the Fed know about market liquidity conditions that it does not want to share, and more importantly, is the Fed seeing a rapid deterioration in liquidity conditions in the future, that may and/or will prompt retail investors to pull their money in another Lehman-like bank run repeat?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Market-Top Economics





Market-top economics could be an entire university course, if people cared enough about such phenomena.  Most only consider the signs of a market top months or years after a crash when some unyielding economics researcher puts the pieces together.  As human-beings we have developed an uncanny ability to rationalize what we know to be bad news and convince ourselves, "This time is different," despite the fact that it usually never is. In a previous article we provided analysis on economic/equity decoupling (cognitive dissonance) and showed that the economy as we know it cannot persist--we are either due for a literal gap-up in leading economic conditions, or we are due for a serious correction in US equities.  With today's 5.4% slip in existing home-sales, let's go with the latter.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

On Attacking Austrian Economics





Josh Barro of Bloomberg has an interesting theory.  According to him, conservatives in modern day America have become so infatuated with the school of Austrian economics that they no longer listen to reason.  It is because of this diehard obsession that they reject all empirical evidence and refuse to change their favorable views of laissez faire capitalism following the financial crisis.  Basically, because the conservative movement is so smitten with the works of Ludwig von Mises and F.A. Hayek, they see no need to pose any intellectual challenge to the idea that the economy desperately needs to be guided along by an “always knows best” government; much like a parent to a child.  CNN and Newsweek contributor David Frum has jumped on board with Barro and levels the same critique of conservatives while complaining that not enough of them follow Milton Friedman anymore.

To put this as nicely as possible, Barro and Frum aren’t just incorrect; they have put their embarrassingly ignorant understandings of Austrian economics on full display for all to see.

 
Reggie Middleton's picture

Lazy Analysis Allows For Outright Silly Pricing Of Near Insolvent REITS: A Forensic Analysis Of A Prime Example





Witness in real time the fundamental collapse of a REIT lauded as a buy by the Sell Side of Wall Street. Come on, admit it! Blogs/alternative media are a better source of analysis than the bank that you just parked your life savings at!!!

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Shhh... Don't Tell Anyone; Central Banks Manipulate Rates





It should come as no surprise to anyone that major commercial banks manipulate Libor submissions for their own benefit. As Jefferies David Zervos writes this weekend, money-center commercial banks did not want the “truth” of market prices to determine their loan rates. Rather, they wanted an oligopolistically controlled subjective survey rate to be the basis for their lending businesses. When there are only 16 players – a “gentlemen’s agreement” is relatively easy to formulate. That is the way business has been transacted in the broader OTC lending markets for nearly 30 years. The most bizarre thing to come out of the Barclays scandal, Zervos goes on to say, is the attack on the Bank of England and Paul Tucker. Is it really a scandal that central bank officials tried to affect interest rates? Absolutely NOT! That’s what they do for a living. Central bankers try to influence rates directly and indirectly EVERY day. That is their job. Congresses and Parliaments have given central banks monopoly power in the printing of money and the management of interest rate policy. These same law makers did not endow 16 commercial banks with oligopoly power to collude on the rate setting process in their privately created, over the counter, publicly backstopped marketplaces.

 
ilene's picture

California Cities Considering (Legal?) Theft of Private Property





Nothing short of the improper taking of private property against the will of the owner?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Diagnosing Liquidity Addiction





Over the last few weeks markets have recovered from the significant stresses that were building towards the end of May (until yesterday's slow realization). The recovery has been in no small part due to expectations of intervention and that fresh rounds of QE and their equivalents will soon be implemented around the developed world. Deutsche Bank believes that markets are now addicted to stimulus and can’t function properly without it. There is little evidence yet to suggest that markets in this post crisis world have the ability to prosper in a period without heavy intervention, though empirically asset prices benefit from liquidity but that the environment remains fragile enough for them to struggle to maintain their levels when the liquidity stops. Critically, they agree with us that the structural problems the West faces mean that QE and its equivalents and refinements will likely need to be around for several years to come to ensure that the financial system and its economies don’t relapse into a depressionary tail-spin. There is no evidence that we are currently close to being able to wean ourselves off our liquidity addiction. The hope would be that with further injections we can prevent the worst case scenario but the base case remains for the stress and intervention cycle repeating itself as far as the eye can see. Central banks still have much to do.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Citi Doubles Down Goldman Sell Call, Says Market "Heading Lower... Liquidity Support Around 1285"





Even though it was one of the first to call for a coordinated market crash (remember XO going over 1000 bps?) last month before a coordinated policy response can come into play, today Citi's Mohammed Apabhai has doubled down on yesterday's market moving Goldman call, once again making it quite clear that only a collapse can bring the much needed policy "salvation." The bogey? 12% down according to Citi, before the "liquidity put" comes in play and 1285 could "indicate liquidity support." In other words: in order to go up, first the market must go down.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Who Destroyed The Middle Class - Part 2





The middle class has a gut feeling they are being screwed by somebody, they just can’t figure out who to blame. The ultra-wealthy elite keep up an endless cacophony of propaganda and misinformation designed to confuse an increasingly uneducated and willfully ignorant public while blurring the facts for those educated few capable of understanding the truth. They have been able to keep the masses dumbed down through government run education; distracted by sports, reality TV, Facebook, internet porn, and igadgets; lured by mass media messages of materialism; and shackled with the chains of debt used to acquire the goods sold by mega-corporations. We’ve become a society oppressed by a small faction of ultra-wealthy masters served by millions of impoverished, uneducated, sedated slaves. But the slaves are getting restless and angry. The illegally generated wealth disparity chasm is growing so large that even the ideologue talking head representatives of the elite are having difficulty spinning it. Even uneducated rubes understand when they are getting pissed on.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Pain Trade: Market Sees 70% Chance Of More Fed Easing





Think the Fed will pump more today? You are not alone: an implicit 7 out of 10 market participants do so too (and have for the past 70 or so S&P points, urged by nothing more than hopes of more easing as economic data after economic data has come in worse than expected). Which naturally means the pain trade today will be one of disappointment. But fear not: everyone will be able to sell ahead of everyone else if and when the Fed disappoints. Or so the thinking goes. Others like Citi, Deutsche and now SocGen, believe that a real policy intervention will come in only following a market crash. Bottom line: nobody knows anything. Correction - we know one thing. Absent central bank intervention everyone now agrees that the economy would be a complete disaster, so at least we can stop pretending that the word "recovery" makes any sense.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What Is Going Through The Heads Of Greek Executives Right Now





With mere hours left until the first Greek exit polls are released, one group of the Greek population, perhaps the most important one if the country of 23% unemployment is to have any hope of not sinking into the Mediterranean, its business executives, has yet to express its opinion on the aftermath of today's election. And while we know that many local businesses have already transferred their money (whether or not taxed is a different question) abroad, it is after all they that will serve as the backbone of any possible future Greek renaissance, whether EUR or XGD denominated. So do they think? Recently Citigroup's European team met with executives from big Greek / Cyprus banks and several officials - independent parties. The key message is that the situation is critical but there is some optimism on the Day after the elections.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Deutsche Bank: "The Spanish Recapitalization Is Not Working" - A Market Shock Is Required





This weekend, everyone's attention will be on the Greek elections, however it is Spain that has now become the "fulcrum security" of Europe. As such, events in Greece are merely a catalyst that will set off a chain of events that will have an impact not only on Spain, but on all of Europe, and thus, the world. As we pointed out last week after the Spanish bailout announcement, based on a preliminary analysis which had been compiled by Deutsche Bank's europhiles hours before the formal announcement, and one which just happened to be a carbon-copy of what was proposed as the 'final (and failed) Spanish solution', it appears that the events in Europe are if not orchestrated by the largest German bank, then certainly receiving part-time advice. Which brings us to the present, where we find that even Deutsche Bank has given up hope for interim solutions, having realized that the market will no longer accept transitory, feeble arrangements. Instead DB is now formally calling for a big bang resolution, one coming from the ECB. Here is the punchline: "ECB has room for manoeuvre, but needs political cover for a ‘big’ policy" or said otherwise, "A shock is required to get a liquidity response." In other words: Europe's only real hope for even a stop gap solution... is a wholesale market crash, not surprisingly the very same conclusion that Citi reached on May 19 when they warned that only Crossover (XO) at 1000 bps or wider could push Europe into acting... Basically stated, anything less than a controlled market crash, one that finally gets the ECB involved with Germany's persmission of course, merely pushes the market higher on nothing but hope of an intervention that said market lift makes even more improbable, as now both Citi and DB admit, which can and will lead to an uncontrolled market collapse, one from which not even the ECB will be able to extricate Europe.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Germany Pulls The Punchbowl As Usual





If yesterday was a repeat of the market action from that day three weeks ago before the last FinMin conference, when everyone expected Germany to announce it had agreed to a bank deposit guarantee, then today is, logically, day after. Because just like back then, so now, Germany has once again made it clear that it will first see the EUR crushed, and all off Europe begging for a bailout (as in the case of Spain - when presented with reality, they all will beg the one with the cash to come to the rescue). To wit from the German Finance Minister, via Stern magazine:

  • Schaeuble Rejects European Redemption Fund: Stern Magazine
  • German finance minister says redemption fund would violate EU treaties, in interview with Stern magazine
 
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