Market Crash

Low-Volatility Stocks At Risk As Credit Cycle Ends, UBS Warns A Crash Is Coming

UBS' Paul Winter believes we are witnessing the end of the credit cycle - earnings growth rates are flat, and the stock market impact has been increasing. Importantly, from a risk perspective, Winter warns that Systemic Risk is rising, and Economic Policy Uncertainty has hit all-time highs, warning that the key risk today lies in low-volatility stocks and the broad market's equity risk premia - "either earnings need to pick up dramatically, or alternately, equities would need to correct by around 20% to bring the equation back into equilibrium."

The Number One Factor Influencing Fed Monetary Policy

In short, the economic model of the second half of the 20th century is over.  Increased issuances of debt no longer translate into increased economic growth.  Instead, they produce wild asset price swings, casino style speculation, and epic bubbles and busts.  Nonetheless, the technocrats continue offering up yesterday’s solutions with unabashed certainty.

Weekend Reading: Valuationally Challenged

As another week comes to a close, we continue to wrestle with a market that remains detached from underlying economic data and clings to recent levels of over overbought, overextended and low reward/risk outcomes. Of course, in the final stages of a bull market, this is what has historically been the case.