The Greater Depression has started. Most people don't know it because they can neither confront the thought nor understand the differences between this one and the last. As a climax approaches, many of the things that you've built your life around in the past are going to change and change radically.
Today at 5:30pm, the four people who have done more to shape the U.S. and global economy in the past four decades more than anyone else, will sit down to discuss their respective philosophies and explain how they see the present and future of the world. At that time, Janet Yellen will appear with her predecessors Ben S. Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker for a round table discussion. The event at the International House marks the first time the four Fed chiefs have gathered for a joint public appearance.
At the end of the day, Trump has petrified the Wall-Street Washington establishment for good reason. He loudly rejects the War Party consensus on foreign intervention. And he has tapped into a deep vein of main street alienation from the phony recovery and economic fixes promulgated by the Fed and its beltway henchman.
There is currently no evidence of a recession now, or even in the few months ahead. There never is. While Trump’s call of a “massive recession” may seem far-fetched based on today’s economic data points, no one was calling for a recession in early 2000 or 2007 either. By the time the data is adjusted, and the eventual recession is revealed, it won’t matter as the damage will have already been done.
"I think we’re sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble... We’re not at 5 percent unemployment. We’re at a number that’s probably into the 20s if you look at the real number. Is it a good time to invest now? "Oh, I think it’s a terrible time right now. You have a situation where you have an inflated stock market. It started to deflate, but then it went back up again. Usually that’s a bad sign. That’s a sign of things to come."
"I think stagflation is starting to show - that idea of stronger nominal growth but weaker real growth is starting to show up across the economy. It certainly is showing up with real personal consumption slowing; it's showing with slower job creation growth as the wage rate rises, and it's showing up in weaker profits as the share of labor income rises reducing profit margins for corporations."
The credit markets are signaling that the debt fueled expansion that began in 2010 is turning to bust. This is the most precarious moment in financial market history because as the world slides into recession global central banks have no ability to soften the oncoming recession with debt creation. The world economy is on the precipice of another Great Depression.
QE3 ended 17 months ago and shockingly the S&P 500 is exactly where it was 17 months ago. How many bull markets go flat for 17 months? As John Hussman accurately points out, we are experiencing a topping formation in the third and biggest bubble of the last 16 years. It’s a long way down from here.
As of this moment, the three main government bodies - including the People's Bank of China - that run China's economy, the financial system or regulate the market all have a direct stake in the market, literally.
Not many months ago bullish Wall Street strategists and pundits were celebrating the backdrop. It appeared to many that global central bankers had mastered the perpetual “money” machine. Markets could only go higher. Yet one would have to be delusional not to recognize the darkening clouds overtaking the world and U.S. Look no further than global terrorist attacks, geopolitical tension and the sour U.S. political discourse as confirmation that All is Not Well.
Some reversals of financial trends prove so momentous they define the generation in which they occur. The stock market crash in 1929 kicked off the Great Depression, which ushered in the welfare and then the warfare state and redefined the relationship between government and citizens. Bonds and stocks began their bull market runs in the early 1980s. Now, those markets are fonts of optimism increasingly unhinged from reality. The US has come full circle. The New Deal and World War II marked a massive shift of resources and power to the federal government. Conversely, financial reversal will fuel a virulent backlash against the government and its central bank.