If the ERP is responsible for 92% of the S&P500 move since 2012, or just over 800 points, that would imply that central bank policies are directly responsible for approximately 40% of the "value" in the market; any moves to undo this support could result in a drop that leaves the S&P in the neighborhood of ~1,400.
UBS' Paul Winter believes we are witnessing the end of the credit cycle - earnings growth rates are flat, and the stock market impact has been increasing. Importantly, from a risk perspective, Winter warns that Systemic Risk is rising, and Economic Policy Uncertainty has hit all-time highs, warning that the key risk today lies in low-volatility stocks and the broad market's equity risk premia - "either earnings need to pick up dramatically, or alternately, equities would need to correct by around 20% to bring the equation back into equilibrium."
In short, the economic model of the second half of the 20th century is over. Increased issuances of debt no longer translate into increased economic growth. Instead, they produce wild asset price swings, casino style speculation, and epic bubbles and busts. Nonetheless, the technocrats continue offering up yesterday’s solutions with unabashed certainty.
According to Jeffrey Miller, "all the conditions for a market crash are in place" but when it happens is anyone's guess and ultimately depends on "how dumb things will get before" central banks finally stop.
As another week comes to a close, we continue to wrestle with a market that remains detached from underlying economic data and clings to recent levels of over overbought, overextended and low reward/risk outcomes. Of course, in the final stages of a bull market, this is what has historically been the case.
Over the last 16 years, it has become routine for “experts” and pundits to miss MAJOR issues by ignoring data points that don’t confirm their own views, only to later proclaim, “no one saw this coming” when a crisis erupts.