Things got off to a rather inauspicious start this year in the wake of the Fed's move to hike rates in December. Now, with policy divergence between the Fed and its DM counterparts set to support the dollar at the expense of both EM stability and US corporate profits and with the continual weakness in crude set to trigger a default cycle, the FOMC faces a rather vexing question: “is it better to admit to a policy mistake and reverse course at the risk of destroying credibility or is it preferable to cling to the narrative so as not to completely destroy the notion that all is well and the US recovery is on track?”
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
"There is massive cognitive dissonance here... the crash has only just begun... The "let's make a deal" market is choosing monetary interventionism but when that door is slammed open, we will see that dreaded black swan monster."
Back in September, David Tepper told BBG TV that "it might be a good time to take money off the table." That's what he said. What did he do? According to his latest 13F as the market was surging in the final quarter of 2015, Tepper was busy buying. So busy in fact, that he took his total long notional exposure to $5 billion an increase of 75%, in the process adding 40% to his longs.
The whole Keynesian regulatory structure is going to collapse. Why? Because we are reaching an inflection point. We are reaching the point at which the exponential curve turns sharply upward. This is good news for liberty, and it is bad news for the arrogant theorists of Keynesian central planning, the arrogant tenured bureaucrats of central banks, and the protected employees of virtually every other government-regulated industry or profession. They are presiding over the final stages of the illusion of central planning.
The fiat currency system, fractional reserve banking fraud, insane Keynesian fiscal policies, and consumer debt based consumption economy are mathematically unsustainable, so they won’t be sustained. The world is about to sit down to a banquet of consequences, served by deranged central bankers.
Fundamentally, Credit is unstable. It is self-reinforcing and prone to excess. Credit Bubbles foment destabilizing price distortions, economic maladjustment, wealth redistribution and financial and economic vulnerability. 'Activist' government intervention and manipulation have pushed protracted Bubbles to the point of precarious systemic fragility.
"No one is trading unless they have to or have microwave circuits for brains.... the system’s foundation rests on a presumption of their expertise. It’s what allows the leaps of faith necessary for financial transmission functions to work. Grand experiments, like the insanity of negative rates, are seen merely as the latest in making it up as you go along."
Let me be blunt: this next crash will be far worse and more dramatic than any that has come before. Literally, the world has never seen anything like the situation we collectively find ourselves in today. The so-called Great Depression happened for purely monetary reasons. Before, during and after the Great Depression, abundant resources, spare capacity and willing workers existed in sufficient quantities to get things moving along smartly again once the financial system had been reset. This time there’s something different in the story line...
The political class has completely disrupted the American structure of production, made American workers uncompetitive, snuffed the life out of entrepreneurs, and burdened the entire nation with a debt obligation the size of Jupiter. The US economy is not the strongest and most durable in the world — it is an unskilled thirty-two-year-old waiter crashing at his parent’s place and trying to pay down an $80,000 international relations degree.