• Tim Knight from...
    12/21/2014 - 09:37
    The five remaining equity bears on Earth are all saying the same thing: "We'll get 'em in 2015." To which I ask: why? What's going to change?

Market Crash

EconMatters's picture

Stock Buybacks at Market All-Time Highs: Poor Use of Corporation Capital





When I heard Kyle Bass discussing one of the reasons he was investing in Herbalife is because of possible future stock buybacks at all-time highs – I just shake my head as this isn`t going to end well folks!

 
Sprout Money's picture

Janet Yellen, a 'White Dove'?





Janet Yellen is readying herself to take over the duties of Ben Bernanke. What can we expect from her?

 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Ghost Of 1929 Re-Appears - Pay Attention To The Signals





They say those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them. We’ve seen that maxim made true time and again. The cycle swings fear back to greed. The overcautious become the overzealous. And at the top, the story is always the same: Too much credit, too much speculation, the suspension of disbelief, and the spread of the idea that this time is different. The weaknesses of the human heart and mind means the swings will always exist. Our rudimentary understanding of the forces of economics, which in turn, reflect ultimately reflect the fallacies of people making investing, purchasing, and saving decisions, means policymakers will never defeat the vagaries of the business cycle. So no, this time isn’t different. The specifics may have changed, but the themes remain the same.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Marc Faber: "Financial Crisis Don't Happen Accidentally, They Are Inevitable"





As a distant but interested observer of history and investment markets, Marc Faber is fascinated how major events that arose from longer-term trends are often explained by short-term causes.; and more often than not, bailouts (short-term fixes) create larger problems down the road, and that the authorities should use them only very rarely and with great caution. Faber sides with J.R. Hicks, who maintained that “really catastrophic depression” is likely to occur “when there is profound monetary instability — when the rot in the monetary system goes very deep”. Simply put, a financial crisis doesn’t happen accidentally, but follows after a prolonged period of excesses (expansionary monetary policies and/or fiscal policies leading to excessive credit growth and excessive speculation). The problem lies in timing the onset of the crisis.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post:15 Signs That We Are Near The Peak Of The Stock Market Bubble





Even if you don't have a Nobel Prize, it should be glaringly apparent to anyone with half a brain - the financial markets have been soaring while the overall economy has been stagnating. Despite assurances from the mainstream media and the Federal Reserve that everything is just fine, many Americans are beginning to realize that we have seen this movie before.  We saw it during the dotcom bubble, and we saw it during the lead up to the horrible financial crisis of 2008.  So precisely when will the bubble burst this time?  Nobody knows for sure, but without a doubt this irrational financial bubble will burst at some point.  Remember, a bubble is always the biggest right before it bursts, and the following are 15 signs that we are near the peak of an absolutely massive stock market bubble...

 
EconMatters's picture

Is Janet Yellen Smarter Than Me?





There are a couple of disturbing points that came out of her take on bubbles and the rationale behind not tapering a mere 10 or 15 Billion dollars given the monthly commitment of 85 Billion in Fed Purchases every month.  

 
Tyler Durden's picture

A-Rod And Janet Yellen: What Valuation, Debt And The Fed Can Say About The Next Bear Market





Think of it this way: You’re a baseball player trying to break into the majors despite mediocre fielding skills, no foot speed, and a batting average that hovers around 250. Egged on by your friend, A-Rod, you think you can make it by using steroids and turning yourself into a power hitter. But it doesn’t work out as planned. After a year, you’re losing hair, your skull’s gotten bigger, there’s fatty tissue on your chest that wasn’t there before, and you’ve still only managed 18 home runs in a season. You finally accept that it’s not going to happen for you. In the baseball scenario, steroids didn’t show enough payoff before the side effects told you enough was enough. And you can say pretty much the same thing about our economic scenario and monetary steroids.  We’re seeing dubious benefits and fast developing side effects from the Fed’s actions, causing many observers to recommend a rethink of the Big Experiment. Yet, the experiment continues...

 
GoldCore's picture

"Is This The Right Time To Get Into Gold?"





There was more irregular price action in trading yesterday between 1800 and 1830 GMT. Gold had trended slightly higher in the afternoon and was trading at $1,244/oz prior to a sharp but very brief spike to $1,254/oz and then sharp concentrated selling saw gold fall by more than $20 to $1,231/oz before bouncing higher and recovering to the $1,245/oz level again. 

 

The trading was unusual as foreign exhange markets saw no price movements of note, nor did the silver, platinum and palladium markets.


 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Margin Debt Soars To New Record; Investor Net Worth Hits Record Low





The correlation between stock prices and margin debt continues to rise (to new records of exuberant "Fed's got our backs" hope) as NYSE member margin balances surge to new record highs. Relative to the NYSE Composite, this is the most "leveraged' investors have been since the absolute peak in Feb 2000. What is more worrisome, or perhaps not, is the ongoing collapse in investor net worth - defined as total free credit in margin accounts less total margin debt - which has hit what appears to be all-time lows (i.e. there's less left than ever before) which as we noted previously raised a "red flag" with Deutsche Bank. Relative to the 'economy' margin debt has only been higher at the very peak in 2000 and 2007 and was never sustained at this level for more than 2 months. Sounds like a perfect time to BTFATH...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Yellen Has Ensured An Equity Market Crash Is Inevitable"





Yellen had to field several questions about potential market bubbles, but she deflected them aggressively saying that she did not believe that “bubble-like conditions” existed. Basically, she has given the market the green light to “melt-up”. The only question is how much higher will the Fed’s ‘gift’ drive prices? She indicated the Fed has no choice but to continue with this policy until it succeeds (or will it ultimately fail?). As perverse as this seems, Yellen likely ensured that an equity market crash (someday) is inevitable. Yellen’s failure to acknowledge any signs of bubble-like conditions encourages more risk-taking and speculation. Therefore, this fact, combined with her hints of a continuation of policy, should lead to a bubble; if one hasn't been created already. And, all bubbles eventually pop.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

John Hussman Asks "What Is Different This Time?"





Investors who believe that history has lessons to teach should take our present concerns with significant weight, but should also recognize that tendencies that repeatedly prove reliable over complete market cycles are sometimes defied over portions of those cycles. Meanwhile, investors who are convinced that this time is different can ignore what follows. The primary reason not to listen to a word of it is that similar concerns, particularly since late-2011, have been followed by yet further market gains. If one places full weight on this recent period, and no weight on history, it follows that stocks can only advance forever. What seems different this time, enough to revive the conclusion that “this time is different,” is faith in the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing. The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Fitch Warns Of Housing Bubble, Says "Unsustainable" Jump Leaves Home Prices 17% Overvalued





Yes... a rating agency - the same entity that enabled the last housing market crash - just warned of a housing bubble. How the times have changed - maybe it is different this time?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Mike Maloney's Top 10 Reasons To Buy Gold & Silver





As Mike "Hidden Secrets Of Money" Maloney has said many times before, the economic crisis of 2008 was only a speed bump on the way to the main event.  He believes that before the end of this decade there will be an economic crisis so historic that it will eclipse the crash of 29 and the subsequent great depression.  He also believes it is both unavoidable and inevitable, because it is merely the free market releasing the stored up energy from decades of economic manipulation. As Maolney notes, "the best investment that you will ever make in your lifetime is your own financial education," and the following provides a succinct reminder of the top reasons to buy gold and silver...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The "Oh Crap" Moment For Housing Is Now In The Can





Real estate guru Mark Hanson updates his housing view following this week's dismal housing industry data:

Sept. Pending Sales... the largest MoM drop since Sept 2001... not 2011... yes, 2001.

Don't let them tell you 'this is normal for Sept'. The 'oh-crap' moment is now in the can. Going forward, "Existing Sales" volume will disappoint on a YoY basis for several quarters. There is no way around it...

 
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