Market Cycles

Buffett's Wrong - Why Market Valuations Are Not Justified By Low Interest Rates

"It's such a comforting, even satisfying assumption; the idea that 'lower interest rates justify higher valuations'...   Unfortunately, the convenience of investing-by-slogan is currently leading investors into what is likely to be one of the worst disasters in the history of the U.S. stock market..."

Small Cap Rout Is Flashing Red Flag For US Economy

The post-election small cap bounce in US stocks has now been completely erased as it seems tax-reforms have now been entirely priced-out of markets. However, as BofAML notes, the demise of small cap stocks relative to the broad market augurs badly for forward-looking economic growth...

The Death Cross Of Central Bank Credibility

With no expectations of a rate-hike this week, and traders rapidly giving up on The Fed's dream of a steadily higher rate trajectory, a funny thing happened in the markets...

Hindenburg Omen Reappears As Main Market Supports Get Kicked Away

In the last week, the controversial Hindenburg Omen has started to cluster ominously once again. Combined with divergent market internals and rates off the zero-bound (and global central bank balance sheets actually shrinking), John Hussman warns of the rising likelihood of an interim market loss on the order of 50-60% over the completion of the current cycle.

Do Low Rates Really Justify Higher Valuations?

Do low-interest rates justify high valuations? History suggests not. It is likely a trap which will once again leave investors with the four “B’s” following the next recession – Beaten, Battered, Bruised and Broke.