Market Cycles

Do Low Rates Really Justify Higher Valuations?

Do low-interest rates justify high valuations? History suggests not. It is likely a trap which will once again leave investors with the four “B’s” following the next recession – Beaten, Battered, Bruised and Broke.

The Witching Hour For US Stocks

When you layer on the current low volatility environment a scenario pops up: one with an equity market that very quietly returns 5-8% with very little price fluctuations.  Yes, in the past that scenario would pull investors into the fray and make for an artificially overvalued market, and then a fall. But the current crop of investors has been around for 3 notable bubble bursts: dot com, housing, and Financial Crisis. Will they get sucked in again?

Scientific Proof ETFs Make Markets Dumber

"Our evidence suggests the growth of ETFs may have (unintended) long-run consequences for the pricing efficiency of the underlying securities."

What NATO Must Do To Remain A True Alliance

The previous US administration criticized NATO at times but in such a way that the complaint was never taken seriously. The new administration cannot afford for this demand to not be taken seriously. From a US strategic view, the status quo is unacceptable...

When Speculators Prosper Through Ignorance

"Speculators often prosper through ignorance; it is a cliche that in a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap. But the typical experience of the speculator is one of temporary profit and ultimate loss."

BNP Risk Indicator Flashes "Love" Warning Signal For US Stocks

While the market itself has exhibited the exuberance we have all seen before (and never seem capable of learning from), BNP has quantified this love-panic relationship (and the news is not great for the bulls). When in 'love' mode, the average drop in stocks has been 12% in the next six months...

Trump's Right - NATO Is Obsolete For The US

Trump’s approach to NATO has been forced on the US by the Europeans. NATO doesn’t work as an alliance. It is a group of sovereign nations that will respond to American requests as they see fit. The US knows this and at some point, someone was going to point out that NATO is obsolete.

"It's Quiet, Too Quiet"

The bulls and the bears have met at the crossroad. However, neither is ready to commit capital towards their inherent convictions. So, for 43-days, and counting, we remain range bound waiting for what is going to happen next... Every bull market in history has ultimately crumbled under the weight of fundamental realities. Despite the many hopes to the contrary, this time will be no different."